Back in Action
Took a week off but back at it providing the full complement of NCAA updated ROI tables. ROI stands for Return on Investment and it relates to wide receiver efficiency. Want to know the nuts and bolts? Check out this prior post.
Let's get into it for all Four NCAA divisions!
Additional Data Point - I've added Height (Ht) and Weight (Wt) to give us context for receiver size. The current Top 10 NFL receivers by receiving yards are, on average, 6'2" (74 inches) and 209 lbs. If you divide the weight by the height, that is a ratio of 2.82. Of course, there are outliers (John Brown has a ratio of 2.51 and Amari Cooper, 3.08) but to give an idea of if a guy is "big enough" this will help provide context.
Division III
The D3 playoffs begin next week (see the tournament bracket here) so the table above is for the regular season - any improvement will be especially noted since it will be coming against playoff caliber teams.
The competition is pretty level in D3 with the top ROI receiver, Staehling, being above average by less then 200% and ahead of his nearest competitor by only 29.6%. You want to see more dominating numbers from any player you consider from a non-FBS division.
Division II
Although it is impossible for FBS, D2 has somehow gotten a playoff tourney going to join D3 as the miracle workers in NCAA. Here is their tourney bracket.
Gooden has eclipsed the 200% mark we like to see and he and Cole have nice separation from the rest of the Top 10 group, Both Cole and Bray have protypical NFL size so we will definitely take a closer look at them.
Football Championship Subdivision (FCS)
Will miracles never cease? FCS too has sold its soul for the secret to holding a real tournament to crown a champion. Go figure. Before they start in two weeks they wrap up regular play this week.
Edwards of Maine is leading in regular season ROI, but we would like to see a wider margin of separation at season's end this week. What this tells me is the underclassmen were probably balling out so that crop should be good to watch next year. Wilkerson and Dereus both have NFL size.
Football Bowl Subdivision
Maybe some day FBS can figure out how to do a real tourney but, hey, that's crazy right? No Height/Weight info since they will do all that at the combine for real anyway.
- Terry reclaims the top spot after a week off due to not meeting the minimum reception threshold. His lead is pretty solid and gives a good illustration for the type of separation you look for in ROI leaders.
- Ceedee Lamb and Siaosi Mariner also rejoined the list having taken a break since their last appearance.
Touchdown King
Looking at touchdown production separate from ROI, we measure the number of receptions is takes to get on TD and then compare that to the similar production of that player's team (excluding his production). So if a player gets a TD ever 2.5 receptions and his team scores one every 7.5 receptions, he's has a 200% efficiency compared to the rest of his team. The qualifying criterion was based on team TD efficiency - in most cases, it was no more than 1 TD for every 17 receptions (if it were higher, the receiver's efficiency would be sky high due to his team really sucking at generating TDs.) We can then gauge this efficiency to the average within each division and can then combine the rankings on an apples to apples basis.
- The TD King is... Denzel Mims of Baylor who scores at rate of 502% faster than average across all 4 NCAA divisions.
- Shockingly, there are no other FBS candidates until you get to #6 overall with Trishton Jackson.
- Bailey was the top FCS player while Strachan was #1 in #2...no offense.
- D3 missed out as no player presented a rate above 200 but we reference Frank Roche's efforts above.
That's it for this week, check out updated FBS and FCS ROI next week!!
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Which NFL Draft round has produced the best values for Edge rushers? Check out the analysis here!
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