Week 13 Power Rankings and Strength of Schedule Update

Rounding the Turn

We are about 3/4th of the way to the NFL playoffs and entering this home stretch, the contenders separate themselves from the pretenders.  

Here are the updated Power Rankings through 11/27/19 compared to the rankings from the major media outlets:

• BAL is the consensus #1 having traveled to LAR to ring the Rams up for another quality win. With the next two games against SF and BUF, Lamar and company could put themselves as the frontrunner for the Superbowl.

Bullish

• PIT is 6 places higher than the Experts have them.  I understand they have a disastrous QB situation and injuries are mounting but the team has held its own despite playing the 4th toughest schedule so far this year (please see table, below).  With their remaining schedule consisting of CLE, ARI, BUF, NYJ and BAL, I forecast a 3-2 record over the final stretch which would give them a decent shot at the AFC wild card berth not held by BUF.

Bearish

• IND is 5 spots lower than the Experts at #16. With one of the weakest schedules, IND is a middling 6-5.  I understand the injuries played a part but that is part of the game these days.  The coming game this Sunday will be telling as the team completes the in-conference series against the TEN team they barely beat in Week 2, but that was pre-Tannehill.  A win would put IND in playoff position although the forecast loss to TEN in Week 13 along with the automatic "L" vs NO might cause them issues.

Strength of Schedule

Color code:  Orange = 2 caption

• The aggregate average per game point differential for each team's opponents were calculated and weighted based on the most current results being more impactful and also the differentials in wins and losses were weighted in the aggregation based on a pro rata basis. 
• The Avg Wins and Avg Losses column shows the rank of each team's opponents in terms of points scored (1 being toughest 32 being easiest).
• The higher the number the tougher the schedule.
• CLE had the toughest go of it, with their schedule being set at 100%.  
• Based on the distribution of Diff scores, BUF's lowest score is 36.1%.
• Rate assigns a score out of 100% based on the Diff compared to the average score.
• Distribution to the Mean by Color Code:
• Blue is greater than 2 Standard Deviations below (weaker) than the mean.
• Green is between 1 and 2 SD's below the mean.
• Bold Yellow is within 1 SD below the mean
• Yellow is within 1 SD above the mean
• Orange is between 1 and 2 SDs above the mean.
• Red is greater than 2 SDs above the mean. 
• PIT is the only team in the top 5 toughest schedules with a winning record, despite the stadium being an infirmary.
• While DAL and IND are both in the category of top 5 softest schedules their inability to take advantage like the other teams (BUF, SF and NE) could indicate they may not be built to go far in the playoffs vs top tier competition.
• NYJ and JAC are each directly on either side of the mean and have.winning percentages below  .500; which would is reflective of their lack of consistency so far this year.

Check out the updated tables next week!!

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