Week 9 NCAA WIde Receiver Efficiency by Return on Investment for ALL 4 Divisions!

Two Thirds Through The Season

Let's talk about the top performing receivers in all NCAA division when it comes to efficiency based on Return on Investment.  Raw volume statistics don't always indicate the ability of a receiver to manufacture production on his own, so Return on Investment provides context.

Return on Investment or "ROI" seeks to uncover just what the name implies...if I invest a passing target in getting the ball to a receiver, what kind of output in terms of production am I going to get from him?  Starting with the basic concept of the Dominator Rating, the percentage of his team's receiving yards a player generates, ROI goes deeper,  comparing also the percentage of his team's receptions the receiver converts from his targets.  

The player's Return on Investment is compared to other players and, unlike DR, the players are tiered based on distribution using standard deviation; therefore, there is no fixed ranking scale.  The number is absolute in that it tells us exactly how much more production a player generated from his opportunities compared to the average receiver. 

As an efficiency measure,  the impact of high volume receivers is eliminated because ROI is based on rates.  However, to weed out one-dimensional deep threat players, only receivers with reception totals greater than 1 standard deviation below the mean are included (the "Sammy Coates rule").   

Unlike DR, this metric ignores touchdowns because there are many factors contributing to a score that may not be directly influenced by the receiver (play design, downfield blocks, blown coverages, etc).  Not that touchdowns are considered useless, as Reception to Touchdown ratio is also monitored in overall receiver evaluation.

ROI presented below under "Above Average" which shows how much more efficient a receiver is compared to the average Top 150 player in his division (in terms of receiving yards).

Get it?  Got it?  Good...

FBS

• "I'll Be Back"  - T2 (Tamorrion Terry) repeats as the top man with a ridiculous rate of 352% above average based on his 15.5% of team receptions for 27.0% of total team reception yards.  The only question I have is with the issues FSU's program has, would he declare for the draft given the lack of raw stats (he is 47th in reception yards in FBS)?  Take a look at his high school reel and you will see he has a solid foundation in controlling the defensive back off the line... a skill you need to understand coming into college. 
• Newjack City - The top new entrant to the list is not Scotty Washington, an ROI regular who took a hiatus from the list last week, but Boise State's John Hightower who clearly has the best haircut this week.
• The Unicorn - Omar Bayless of Arkansas State is number one in the nation in terms of receiving yards AND also resides at # 11 on our list for the second consecutive week.  This is impressive as top yard guys have a tough time remaining efficient.  

FCS

• Life just ain't fair... - We had a Top 20 for FBS but only 7 for FCS?  'Sup with that?  The reality is teams draft primarily from FBS so the players in the other divisions will have to be truly extraordinary to get a shot. Therefore, we have only players how are at least 100% more efficient than average in terms of ROI.  We've found them before (Cooper Kupp and Keelan Cole were both hyped up here pre-draft) and will continue to do so. 
• Domination - Chris Blair of Alcorn State (the alma mater of the late great Steve McNair) is a straight beast.  He is responsible for 14.8% of total team receptions yet 28.4% of total receiving yards which puts him a ridiculous 317.9% above average.  What's more, the next competitor is at 142.1%, so with his margin of separation, this 6'3" 200 lbs JUCO transfer warrants a closer look.  

Division II

• King Cole -  McKendree University Bearcat Matthew Cole was number one in our prior D2 list and stays on top.  He gets a quarter of the receptions for his team but brings in 41.8% of the receiving yards putting him at 239.4% above average. Here is some footage, which is rare for D2 guys. He also has a solid TD Rate (receptions required to get 1 TD) of 3.7 (average for D2 is 5.3).

Division III

• When the Going Gets Tufts - When I visited Tufts many moons ago, I didn't even know they had a football team.  But Frank Roche is getting it done with 24.2% of team receptions and  40.7% of team reception yards.  
• I Need a Hero - The top receivers in D III are don't show a lot of separation in terms of their ROI with only 72% separating Roche at #1 and Stewart at #6.  That's is an indication that there is not much differentiation between receivers at this level.  The margin for FBS over the #1 and #6 spot is over 200% which shows there is clear separation in talent. 

Touchdown Rate

Here is a quick look at the TD Rate leaders for all NCAA divisions:

TD King for this week remains Ceedee Lamb of Oklahoma. who has the largest differential between his rate than the #2 man.  The list above includes the players from each division with the lowest Receptions to Touchdowns rates.  

• 2nd - Is the rate for the second player in the division.
• Diff - Is the % difference between the top player and 2nd which is the criteria used for ranking.
• % to Team represents the players' rate compared to the rest of the team without him.  For example, Ceedee Lamb has a rate of 3.3 and his team has a rate of  9.2.
• It's worth noting Chris Blair not only has the highest ROI of draft eligible players in FCS, but also the best TD Rate.  

That's it for now.  Check out some of the names above you may have not hear of before and start getting ready for the 2020 NFL draft!

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