NCAA is More than Just FBS
Over the last two weeks I introduced ROI rankings for FCS, DII and DII to go along with the weekly FBS rankings. From here on out, ROI efficiency rankings for each of the 4 components of NCAA will be profiled weekly.
What is Return on Investment?
Return on Investment for WRs is based on measuring how much better a player is compared to his teammates at producing receptions compared to target opportunities and yards compared to reception opportunities. The aggregate of these percentages gives us a player’s ROI. And while one player may be in a run first offense, another in a pass first and another in a balanced system, volume does not benefit the WR in this analysis as all statistics are based on rates.
There are two components to ROI:
- Raw ROI - Reflects a receiver's efficiency based on contributory receptions and yards.
- QB adjusted ROI - Normalizes Raw ROI to reflect the possible impact of team QB completion percentage on receiver performance.
The average of these two ratios results in Average ROI which represents how much more production a WR generated compared to what would be expected from his share of opportunities.
The numbers discussed until after the end of the season will not include the target/reception ratio as target figures are easier to compile at the end of the season than weekly. (I have only so much time...)
This measure is not offered to definitively screen out every future NFL All-Pro. Simply being on the list or even at the top of the list is no indication of a player's potential as a draft prospect. ROI is simply the first of several tools used to find players who may have strong traits and skill sets; players who may otherwise be overlooked because the media buzz can only support but a few names. Again, ROI is the first, not the last step in creating your "Draftable" list. The follow up to screening out a new prospect using ROI is, of course, additional film study and research.
For those of you unfamiliar with the ratio and would like to see a working example of the calculation, please read the original article.
Here are the updated tables for the week ending 10/21/17:
There are two components to ROI:
The numbers discussed until after the end of the season will not include the target/reception ratio as target figures are easier to compile at the end of the season than weekly. (I have only so much time...)
For those of you unfamiliar with the ratio and would like to see a working example of the calculation, please read the original article.
Here are the updated tables for the week ending 10/21/17:
FCS
Notes
- Bob Pugh is a straight beast. All-State our of Foley HS (AL), went JUCO and was All-American as receiver and return man at Highland CC. So far this year, he has more than double the yards he had all last season with only four more receptions. His coach at Indiana State doesn't have much to say about him, though.
- Daurice Fountain is about his business. He grew up in the college town of Madison, Wisconsin where he was an All-State WR out of James Madison Memorial (WI) also taking All-State honors in Track, capturing the state championships in the 110 hurdles and the long jump. He also found time for basketball, taking conference honors there, as well. Despite being from a serious college town, Fountain went to UNI where he saw limited action as true freshman. But in his next two years, he led UNI in receiving; thus far he is number 1 so far this season.. Yet another not very impressed coach here.
- There FCS average ROI was 21.6% and so the top ROIs above is limited to WRs who produced better than average results.
Notes
- Bob Pugh is a straight beast. All-State our of Foley HS (AL), went JUCO and was All-American as receiver and return man at Highland CC. So far this year, he has more than double the yards he had all last season with only four more receptions. His coach at Indiana State doesn't have much to say about him, though.
- Daurice Fountain is about his business. He grew up in the college town of Madison, Wisconsin where he was an All-State WR out of James Madison Memorial (WI) also taking All-State honors in Track, capturing the state championships in the 110 hurdles and the long jump. He also found time for basketball, taking conference honors there, as well. Despite being from a serious college town, Fountain went to UNI where he saw limited action as true freshman. But in his next two years, he led UNI in receiving; thus far he is number 1 so far this season.. Yet another not very impressed coach here.
- There FCS average ROI was 21.6% and so the top ROIs above is limited to WRs who produced better than average results.
Division II
Notes
- One thing about working in the sister divisions to FBS, it is not easy to find press data about some of the players so thank you in advance for understanding.
- Another New #1 in Gary McKnight who did not qualify last week (his receptions were not within 1 Standard Deviation of the DII average). All-State WR our of MacArthur, Lawton (OK) which won the state championship in 2012. Team MVP. Led NE State in recs, rec yards and TDs last year, on pace to do the same
- D'Angelo Bowie is new to the list from Western New Mexico. He Transferred from Grossmont College and took a redshirt in 2015 at Western NM. After a quiet 2016 season, he leads the team in receiving in 2017.
Division III
And finally, Division III:
Notes
- Brandon Ehkre dropped in to the #1 spot without having previously been on the Top ROI list. An All-State WR out of Deerfield HS (WI) with at least all-conference honors in basketball and baseball, Ehkre also currently plays for the Carroll basketball team. Details are sketchy but it seems as though this, his senior year, is his first year of college football (!). With 24% of teams receptions and 40% of team reception yards, his avg efficiency ratio garners him 67% more yards pro rata, good enough to debute in the #1 spot.
- Brad Garcia was touted by teammate Koree Reed as a straight beast and based on what I've read, he's right. Have a seat and check this out: A three sport athlete (football, basketball and baseball) out of Warwick Valley HS (NY). He was 3x FIRST TEAM All-State. In his senior year he led the state in rushing totaling 2,549 yards and 27 TDs with two 400+ yard rushing games...as a QB. (Breathe) College: Freshman year he was 3rd in the NCAA (the entire thing) in term s of yards per rec. Sophomore year? Hey, how about being named an All-American with 1,382 yards and 14 TDs. Junior year reached 1,000+ yards for 2nd straight year. So far, has a statline of 36/726/11 (leading the team with TDs) so with 2 games to go he needs 274 to hit 1,000 for a third year.
Looking forward to this coming weekend's action!
Shameless Self-Promotion!
Watch this spot for more College Football and WR updates and analysis, including weekly updates of ROI in FBS, FCS, D2 and D3~
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Even More Shameless!!!
Gearing up for the 2nd DraftTwitter NFL Draft Top 100 and I need your feedback on the top 100 prospects, the only list that is created by amateur (and some professional) scouts like you! And I'd love you to submit a ballot. Check out last year's here. Stay tuned for more info coming over the next few weeks.
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