FBS Just Over One Month Away!!
Football action is around the corner and I wanted to follow up my "NFL Rookie Dominator Rating Vs Return on Investment" article with the same analytical peek at the upcoming FBS season comparing many of the top seniors and underclassmen likely to declare for the 2020 draft wide reciever class.
Briefly, Dominator Rating, or "DR" measures the average of a player’s percentage of team receiving yards and percentage of the team's receiving touchdowns.
Return on Investment or "ROI" seeks to uncover just what the name implies...if I invest a passing target in getting the ball to a receiver, what kind of output in terms of production am I going to get from him?
For more detail into each of the metrics we will discuss, please refer to the original article referenced above.
DR vs ROI
The table below is organized as follows:
- Player Name, Team and Class
- "r" means redshirt
- "T" means transfer
- "MM" means player served a two year Morman mission
- JUCO prefix indicates the number of years at his current school post JUCO
- Height (inches), Weight (lbs) and Density (Dns) -Simple density calculated as Wt/Ht
- DOM = Dominator Rating as detailed above.
- Score: Based upon the distribution of all sample scores based on an "A to D" grading system with 100% awarded to the top scorer and a 65% assigned to the score at the bottom of the range 1 standard deviation below the mean.
- DOM w/o RB = Dominator Rating excluding RB statistics (to provide an "apples to apples" comparison to ROI which eliminates those same stats).
- THE TABLE BELOW IS SORTED BASED ON THIS METRIC.
- ROI = Return on Investment is as detailed above.
- Diff = Difference between DOM w/o RB and ROI.
- The lower the number the more parity between Dom w/o RB and ROI; the larger the more disparity.
- Rec/TD = Number of receptions to generate 1 Touchdown
What's With All the Colors?
The numbers in the table above are exclusive to their respective columns so a 25% score in one column is not the same as a 25% score in the others. Each metric was sorted independently based on the distribution:
- Superior: One name stands above all and that is Tulane's Darnell Mooney. If you've never heard of him, that is the point of ROI, to screen out guys who may get lost in the draft hype machine. While his numbers show he dominated and was the most efficient in FBS, film study is required to see if that was because his teammates were truly, truly below NFL level prospects or if he will back up his numbers with solid execution and mastery of fundamentals.
- Outstanding: Louisana Tech's Adrian Hardy was a high school QB and you know I love receivers who were signal callers. His ratings were consistent across all three metrics so I will make sure I take the time to really check him out this coming season.
- Above Average: MSU Bulldog Isaiah Zuber (formerly of Kansas State), Kentucky's Lynn Bowden Jr. (former QB), Cornhusker JD Spielman (Minnesota Vikings GM Rick Spielman's son, so he has NFL access) and college journeyman Kirk Merritt of Arkansas State are all bold yellow across the board.
Disparity - There can be a lot of variance between DR and ROI for an individual player. To eliminate the noise, we will focus on two criteria to see who has the most divergent scores:
- In terms of DR w/o RB and ROI, the player has one above average (Blue, Green or Yellow Bold) and another below average (Yellow, Orange or Red) and
- There must be a difference of at least two grades between them.
DR Favorable/ROI Unfavorable
- Rice's Austin Trammell has a Dom w/o RB that is indicative of a late 1st round pick but his ROI is subpar based on the data. He has come away with all-Conference USA hardware each of his first two years so we'll see what he can do in 2020.
- Jalen Reagor of Texas Christian is a legacy player, his father having won a Super Bowl ring with the Colts. He is showing Top 20 pick with his DR w/o RB but his ROI is two levels down which indicates he may have had over-distribution of targets last year.
- Washington Huskie Aaron Fuller , the lone senior of this group, was the leading receiver for UW evidenced by his high DR w/o RB but his performance overall was distinct from the rest of the team but not in a positive way, as far as ROI efficiency is concerned.
The three receivers above are special talents, however the disparity between our metrics needs to be investigated with review of game video to see what is up.
ROI Favorable/ DR Unfavorable
- Dezmon Patmon of Wazzu was third on the team in terms of receptions which resulted in a disappointing DR w/o RB however he led the team in receiving yards. That helped put him near the top of our list in terms of ROI. It will be interesting to see if Mike Leach increases his targets given his superior efficiency.
- Nick Westbrook of Indiana makes me wonder how a 1st team all-state receiver out of Florida...FLORIDA...decided to spend his college career at Indiana, a school not known for football. His injury 2 years ago may have been a blessing in disguise, permitting him a redshirt senior year in 2019. I was a huge fan of his last few years and I know he will become one of the more talked about "sleeper" names in the 2020 draft process.
- USC's Michael Pittman is, indeed, the junior of the former NFL Super Bowl ring wearing running back. No slouch in his own right, Deuce certainly made use of his NFL access evidenced by an All American high school career. His marginal DR is driven by being 3rd on the team in receptions in 2018, his outstanding ROI by efficient production. USC is loaded at WR with Vaughns and St. Brown (1st and 2nd in 2018 receptions) so we will see if Pittman can further distinguish himself.
Receptions/Touchdown
Unlike DR, ROI does not take into consideration receiving touchdowns because there are many factors involved beyond the receiver's skill. As an additional aid, it is helpful to check TD production through receptions/TDs.
As you can see, the above-average REC/TD ratios have no correlation to DR w/o RB or ROI as it is independent of both metrics:
- DR includes player's percentage of team touchdowns it can be misleading; Army had 7 passing TDs in 2018 with 4 going to Jordon Asberry for 57.1% of team touchdowns. Couple that with his 21.0% share of team receiving yards and he's a late first round pick with a Dominator Rating of 39.1%.
- Across the range from above average (Blue, Green and Bold Yellow) to below aveage (Flat Yellow, Orange and Red) the distribution in the table above resembles the protoypical bell curve.
- I believe a better way to evaluate TD contribution is apart from any reception/yardage measure by using the REC/TD ratio.
- One observation that is interesting is many of the top "brand" name WRs in this coming draft go into 2019 with DR w/o RB and ROI hovering around average but boasting elite REC/TD ratios.
- It will be interesting to see how these players perform in the upcoming year to see if the productivity/efficiency numbers increase to the level of their TD generation.
- It bears noting that Alabama's Jeudy (discussed as a possible WR1 this coming draft) got the only Outstanding REC/TD ratio with a TD scored every 5.09 receptions.
In Conclusion
While the numbers can be similar for a player across the three primary metrics we reviewed, Dominator Rating, Dominator Rating without Running Back stats and Return on Investment, it is critical to compare them exclusively within each data set. Just as Dominator Rating is not infallible, neither is ROI. In fact, ROI is best used as a screening tool to find players who may have been overlooked by the media draft machine; especially given how REC/TD and not Dominator Rating seems to be more line with the players receiving media buzz this pre-season.
Keep an eye on this space for updates all NCAA season long for FBS receiver ROI trends with periodic review of FCS, DII and DIII top ROI receivers.
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