NFL Draft 2020 - Football Film Fight Volume 2 Part 2 - Offensive Tackles

That Time of Year Again!

The Combine is upon us and the Offensive Linemen have been putting on a show.  What better time than now to conduct a Football Film Fight for Offensive Tackles?  Let's have them go head-to-head based solely on film viewing and identify the true top prospect.  If you missed the first edition - Running Backs, go check it out here.

Ground Rules

This year, to make it simple, I will take the Top 10 of each position group from the man who took independent scouting from the dining room to the board room, Mel Kiper Jr., based on his ESPN Top 10 lists as of 1/24/2020.  Starting with numbers 9 and 10 on each list, I will review three games per player (preferably, two from last season and one from a prior year) and, based solely on the film viewing, one will advance to the next round to face #8, repeating the process until I get my #1 overall at that position. 

DNS +/- Represents player's simple body density in relation to the average of the players in the survey (+ is larger than average, - is smaller)

Round 1:  #10 Adams vs. #9 Niang

Trey Adams Notes:

• UW Career 
• A rare true freshman starter on OLine for UW with 46 career starts. 
• Torn ACL in 2017; back injury in 2018.
• ESPN, USA Today and Football Writes All-American (2016).  
• High School 
• USA Today All-State (WA).
• Rated OT41 or better b y Rivals, ESPN and Scout.com.
• Father Bud was a pitcher drafted by the KC Royals.

Viewed -  Alabama 2016, Ohio State 2019 and Oregon 2019 - Definitely see what all the excitement was about his future back in 2016 vs. Bama.  Had his hands full with Chase Young in the 1st quarter but adjusted nicely to handle the potential top pick.  Seems to have good preparation but will let himself get behind in the play vs. speed rushers and will tend to lunge.  Nice performance vs. Oregon.  Seems to show shades of 2016.

vs. 

Lucas Niang Notes:

• TCU Career 
• Starting LT since 2017 with 28 career starts for the Horned Frogs.
•  2nd Team All-Big 12 (2018)   
• Played just 7 games in 2019 due to season ending hip surgery. 
• High School 
• OT1 in the state of Connecticut in his recruiting class
• Offers from Auburn, Miami (FL) and Penn State

Viewed - WVU 2018, Texas 2019 and Purdue 2019 - On the right side. Could be more efficient in pass pro set up. Reaches a bit too much when he can't get to his spot on time. Working on lower body strength would improve his overall game.

Winner:  Adams 

From the games viewed, Adams seems much more serviceable right now and is a true left tackle.

Round 2:  Adams vs. #8 Jackson

Jackson Notes:

• USC Career 
• Total of 25 starts over his 3 year career, all at LT.
• Despite undergoing surgery for bone marrow donation and missing much of summer camp in 2019, he recovered to not miss a start the following season.
• High School 
•  Selected to All-American teams in 2015 and 2016. 
• Multi-sport athlete (track and basketball). 
• Grandson of former Trojan OL Melvin Jackson who went on to play 5 years in the NFL. 

Viewed - UCLA  2018, Iowa 2019 and Utah  2019 - Has some tricks up his sleeve.  Sometimes forgets to keep his feet.  Vs Iowa faced Epenesa with some success but had issues dealing with the power rush.  Utah vs. Anae and had challenges with his speed/power.  

Winner:  Adams

Adams had more consistent film.  If Jackson can land with a team to develop, he can make some noise in the league.

Round 3: Adams vs. #7 Charles

Charles Notes:

• LSU Career 
• 28 starts in 3 years along the line with 26 starts at LT.
• 2017 All Freshman SEC Team.  
• High School 
• Four star recruit per Rivals and Scout. 
• Displaced by Hurricane Katrina settling in Mississippi.
• Recognized as a top recruit from that state. 

Viewed - Auburn 2018, Texas 2019 and Alabama 2019 -  The most amazing thing about Charles is he can sometimes forget to move his feet.  It's remarkable.  He always bounced back on the next play but it's something to see.  His pass protection will need work so project him to the right side at the next level. 

Winner:  Adams 

Charles needs to figure out the foot thing and that will keep his LT options limited. He is not a road grader so perhaps he can move into a left guard role. 

Round 4: Adams vs. #6 Peart

Peart Notes:  

• Connecticut Career:
• Started all 48 games in his 4 years as a Husky.
• Switched from guard to RT his senior year.  
• High School 
• Did not play football at all before high school.
• Basketball team captain.

Viewed - UCF 2018, Wagner 2019 and UCF 2019 - Not a lot of UConn footage out there.  Given he is relatively new to the sport he has a lot of upside.  I like him better in pass protection so I see the LT projection.  Has the physical tools; can develop with the right coaching staff.

Winner:  Adams 

I am as surprised by this outcome the way I've heard Adams mentioned on social media.  Not that Peart is flawed, he is actually very adept but Adams just has more experience and it shows.

Round 5:  Adams vs. #5 Jones

Jones Notes:  

• Houston Career 
• Total of 45 starts at LT.
• Injuries in 2017 (missed two games due to knee) and 2019 (missed three games due to high ankle sprain). 
• High School 
• Three star recruit by several media outlets.
• OT11 in the state of Texas by Scout.
• Two sport athlete (Basketball)

Viewed -  USF 2018, Oklahoma 2019 and Cincinnati  2019 - Showed nice improvement year over year with increased ferocity.  Better pass protector so I would leave him on the left side. Held his own well against Oklahoma.  Late in games he had a lot of help from a tight end on his side (sometimes an extra lineman) so stamina issues?

Winner - Jones 

It was a nice run for Adams but Jones shows he can impose his will on opponents and is able to make a larger impact. 

Round 6:  Jones  vs. #4 Wirfs

Wirfs Notes:

• Iowa Career 
• Played in 35 games with 33 starts; four games at left tackle, 29 at right tackle.  
• First Team All-American by several outlets (including Football Writers), Second Team All-American (AP and AFCA). 
• High School
•  All State (IA).
• Selected to the U.S. Army All-American Bowl  
• All-Iowa Boys HS athlete of the year as a three sport athlete (state champion in wrestling and Track and Field)

Viewed - Penn State 2018, Michigan 2019 and USC 2019 - Like the others, the cut blocking is hilarious...how are they teaching that? Anyway, solid in run and pass. Can lean but never victimized for it. Great 4th quarter energy.

Winner - Wilfs

More reliable in pass and run, he can play either tackle position.

Round 7:  Wilfs vs. #3 Wills

Wills Notes:

• Alabama Career 
• A total of 29 career starts with 28 at RT.
• Earned All-American accolades from several media outlets.
• High School
• All-State honors (KY) beginning his sophomore year.
• #1 recruit from the state of Kentucky.
• Under Armour All-America Game and Nike "The Opening" participant.

Viewed - Mississippi State 2018, South Carolina 2019 and LSU 2019  - On the right side his whole career.  He's like Po from Kung Fu Panda, he is shock absorber, often taking the first hit from defenders and counter attacking. Like the run blocking.  Wily pass rushers can exploit his anticipation when he reaches at times. Can be a spectator at times.  Speed rush can be a challenge.  Finally - effective, non-Looney Toons cut blocking.

Winner - Wilfs 

Wills will be drafted in the top 20 so he will be excited but as far a versatility, Wilfs checks all the boxes.  

Round 8:  Wilfs vs. #2 Becton

Becton Notes:

• Louisville Career 
• Started 34 games for the Cardinals.
• Played RT switching over to LT his final year.   
• High School 
• All-State selection (VA).
• Rivals 4-star recruit
• Also played center for his basketball team.

Viewed - Alabama 2018, Notre Dame 2019 and Clemson 2019 - Big and strong.  Crosses his feet a lot when making up ground lost to speed which will be exploited at the next level on speed to power rushes.  Has to keep his feet under him - tries to throw defenders but destabilizes his base and just shoves guys who stay in the play. Wider base vs. Clemson seemed to help his feet.

Winner - Wilfs

 Becton is big, strong and fast whose coaches are going to be drooling to get to work with him.  Wilfs is ready today.

Round 9:  Wilfs vs. #1 Thomas

Thomas Notes:

• Georgia 
• Started 41 games, 15 at RT and 26 on the left side.  
• All-American lists each of his three years as a Bulldog.
• High School
• All-State (GA).
• Participant in U.S. Army All-America Bowl.
• Top 10 OT recruit in several media outlets.
• Two-way lineman with 59 tackles his senior year.

Viewed - Alabama 2018, Notre Dame 2019 and LSU 2019 - Quick and strong. 5:20 in Q3 vs Bama...shows a mean streak. Solid rebound from a mental error to return flawless the rest of the way out (Bama and LSU game). Solid technique.

2020 Offensive Tackle Football Film Fight Champion...

Andrew Thomas

2.  Tristan Wilfs

3. Josh Jones

4.  Mekhi Becton

Bonus take from #5 - Trey Adams

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2020 NFL Combine - Who Won the Wide Receiver Workouts?

2020 NFL Player Combine  - Wide Receiver Review

Here it is, the top 10 Wide Receivers based on the average of the following measures scored based on the sample average with the top score set at 100:

• Straight 40 Yards - their best time at the Combine.

The following metrics were adjusted for body mas (Mass = Weight/[Height  x Height])

• 40 Yards
• Broad Jump
• Vertical Jump

Notes:

• Reagor clearly dominated across the board so him being number 1 is no surprise.
• Wondering if Claypool is still getting asked about switching to TE?
• Peoples-Jones was average in each of his 40 times but bounced back on his jumps.
• Ruggs III performed as advertised in his 40 time which took a bit of a hit because, at lower mass, he had to be faster to overcome that on an adjusted basis.
• Duvernay is a guy who had the quietest solid combine I've seen in a while.  Not many were talking about him but he comes in at 5th?
• Aiyuk and Mims were already being talked about in various media circles as potential first rounders so the strong showings could only help boost their standing.
• K.J. Osborn was in the shadow of Anthony Johnson at University of Buffalo in 2018 but had the chance to breakout at University of Miami.
• Cleveland was an under the radar guy for me who had 851 yards on just 57 catches at Florida at team with other standout receivers.  Hope he can springboard this performance into a nice opportunity at the next level.

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A Look at the Seventeenth Game Proposed NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement

Shut Up and Deal

I'm sure if you are reading this, you are football freak enough to know the NFL owners proposed a new Collective Bargaining Agreement (or "CBA") to replace the current expiring contract.  There are many modifications to be considered by the players and their union, the NFLPA, but the one generating the most media attention is the proposal to add a 17th game to the current schedule.  Before we go any further, here's the bottom line.

The Bottom Line:  

The deal would increase players' share of revenues to 48.5% from 47%.  The players' aggregate share would increase as a total but not be very impactful on a per game basis because the increase in games more than offsets the increase in revenue sharing rate.  Also, the NFL cannot impose a 17th regular season game; the power to do so seems to rest only with the NFLPA. If there were a 17th game the players would have a very low benefit for the increased work load (increased 1% financial benefit for a 6.25% increase in work for players). 

Let's Make Sense of the Numbers

Based on the CBA Proposal Fact Sheet provided by the NFLPA (seen here at Darren Heitner's Twitter page) there are two factors related to the 17th game:

1. Salary Capped - The proposal says if there is a 17th game, players will receive 1/17th of their regular "Paragraph 5" salaries...up to $250,000.  So, guys scheduled to make more than $4.25 Million in that year would get somewhat screwed and would make "only" $250,000 which would make larger contracts worth a bit less. [UPDATE - The owners have removed the cap in the latest version.]
2. Revenue Share Media Kicker - The players split revenue with the league, currently getting 47% of the designated funds.  In 2021, that amount will increase to 48% AND if the NFLPA consents to 17 games, that amount has the "ability to increase to 48.5% share through a media kicker".  This revenue is projected to reach as much as $5 Billion dollars over the 10 years of the proposed CBA length.

The owners had to know the first item would be met with not a lot of excitement by the players...

The second item is a bit more complex.  The language "the ability to increase to 48.5%" indicates that there are potentially some qualifying events related to this nebulus "media kicker" that would have to occur to reach that threshold.  And I'm not sure if anyone outside the of the negotiations teams knows those details, as I have not seen them anywhere online.  But hypothetically, let's take a look at how the 48.5% increase might look.

How Much Revenue Are We Talking About?

The NFL is a private organization and so their financial details do not have to be made available to the public.  Fortunately for nosy guys like me, the Green Bay Packers are the only non-individually owned team in the league and, due to the owner's softness for the feel-good story of the Green and Yellow, they remain owned by the people of Green Bay.  Which means it is a public entity that has public financial disclosures.

So, in 2017, the Packers reported their share of NFL revenue was $277 Million.  Multiply that by 32 teams and we see the owners' 53% take of revenue was $8.864 Billion.  Working backwards, we see the players' share was $7.861 Billion.  I looked through the current CBA and being a complete slacker, I couldn't find how the NFLPA distributes the players' share of revenue from the league, but for the sake of simplicity let's just give each player on the 53 man roster an even cut.  So, each man is looking at $289,671 per game for his share of revenue in 2017.  Remember, 2017 is based on 16 games.

What if We Have 17 Games?

So, given the 2017 numbers, let's assume those base figures for our 2021 projection meaning, instead of the $16.7 Billion pool of funds to be split between owners and players, that pool grows to $17.8 Billion assuming 17 games instead of 16 (this is admittedly understated because additional playoff games proposed in this version of the CBA would increase the revenue pot but I haven't any idea how to weight playoff games vs. regular season games so I will ignore this challenge for now).  The proposed CBA will increase the players' share of revenue to 48% (from the current 47%) which would be equal to $295,834 per player or about 2.3% more than the amount we calculated for 2017.  

Recall, if the NFLPA consents to that magical 17th regular season game and the "media kicker" is kicked to its fullest potential, the players can add another 50 bips to their take, increasing their share of overall revenue to 48.5%.

The casual observer might say, "well, if the players get 48% of revenue for 16 regular season games, that works out to 3% per game so shouldn't their share be 51% if they go to 17?"  The casual observer in this case was my teenage son who is by no means a 7 figure union lawyer, the type of which the NFLPA might hire to negotiate their contract.  But we can all agree that 51% is a majority and it would be doubtful rich owners would consent to giving up a majority of anything.  At any rate, that simple pro-rata arrangement is not on the table so looking at the additional 0.5%, we see the per player share of revenue  increases to 298,916/player which is 3.3% more than 2017, however, it would only be an additional 1% more revenue to play 17 games than to play the 16 game schedule under the proposed contract. When you consider the players would be adding 6.25% to their workload by adding another game but would only see an increase in their upside of 1%, it's pretty clear why a good number of players have been vocal in stating the deal is unacceptable...and why the owners rushed to approve it.

Would You Give Up Your Saturdays for $50?

Looking at pure numbers in cases where they are in the billions can make it difficult to understand what is really happening so let's bring it down to ground level...

Joe Schmo works for a manufacturing company with a union that has secured a piece of the pie for all employees so, in addition to his regular salary, Joe gets a bonus at the end of each year based on the performance of the company.

This year, a new contract is negotiated which requires him to increase his 40 hour work week by 6.25% so now he has to come in each Saturday for 2.5 hours.  Kind of a pain, but hey, he'll take the extra money since they get paid based on their regular rate...unless, of course, they make over 6.5% of the company's average salary which is $47,000...Joe makes just over $50,000 so he gets paid at the average salary rate for the additional Saturday hours.  Weird, but he'll go along because, with the additional hours of productivity,  he figures the company's profits will skyrocket which will make up for the inconvenience at bonus time, right?   Not exactly. Although the rate their bonus is paid out for Monday through Friday work increased by 2.3% , the rate applied for bonus on the work done on Saturday is at only a 1% additional differential.  So, he has to commit to giving up half his Saturday mornings (and make sure he's in bed at a decent hour Friday night to get up in the morning) for an extra $50 on the $5,000 bonus he will now earn under the new structure.

I Know, I Know...

You may be thinking the NFL player league minimum is not exactly $7.25/hour, however when you are talking in the realm of billions, large numbers can mask low percentage rates such as in the case of the incremental benefit of the proposed 17th game.  A professional athlete who makes millions is not the same as a guy working in a factory for $50,000 but on a scale basis, the situations are congruent.  Just because the market can support large numbers comparing rates is more appropriate than actual dollar amounts.

 Final Thoughts

I have to say, there are a lot of positive things in the proposed CBA...

1. There are all sorts of increases in terms of salaries and bonuses for players, including the base revenue sharing. 
2. Expanded benefits for former players including setting up hospitals in current NFL cities where they can get free basic check ups, mental health counseling and outpatient orthopedic services...not all encompassing for men who are often physically broken after retirement, but it's a start. 
3. Implementation of a "neutral" decision maker to be involved in Commissioner disciplinary cases which makes sense since the Commissioner represents the owners.
4.  More player friendly training camp rules/requirements. 
5. Increased playoff teams (I am still processing this, so likely another article on this impact will follow).

Despite all that, I would think the players likely want to have the 17th game valued at the same basis of each of the other 16 games for revenue sharing purposes which would put them at or above 50%.  If there were ever going to be any 17th game, the players would mandate some form of lifetime medical program and/or establishment of some Long Term Care facilities for players paid for by the league.  Also, I have heard talk about working to eliminate cannabis testing but I think the relaxed testing and penalites is the best they are going to get.

They won't be relaxing it this much, however. 

In the end, the players could elect to just take the 2.3% increase on the Revenue Sharing side and just not ever vote to permit a 17th game.  Keep in mind, nothing in the CBA is tied to forcing the additional game; everything I've read says only the NFLPA can elongate the season and there doesn't seem to be financial incentives proposed by the league to compel them to do that.

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NFL Draft 2020 - Football Film Fight Volume 2 Part 1 - Running Backs

That Time of Year Again!

We have turned the corner and are less than 70 days away from the NFL Draft.  Before the Combine kicks off next week, I wanted to get started on my annual head-to-head battle of the top prospects at each position based solely on film viewing.  I call it the Football Film Fight.

Ground Rules

This year, to make it simple, I will take the Top 10 of each position group from the man who took independent scouting from the dining room to the board room, Mel Kiper Jr., based on his ESPN Top 10 lists as of 1/24/2020.  Starting with numbers 9 and 10 on each list, I will review three games per player (preferably, two from last season and one from a prior year) and, based solely on the film viewing, one will advance to the next round to face #8, repeating the process until I get my #1 overall at that position. 

Running backs get the draw for the first FFF so let's go.

DNS +/- Represents player's simple body density in relation to the average of the players in the survey (+ is larger than average, - is smaller).

Round 1:  #10 Ahmed vs. #9 McFarland

Salvon Ahmed:  Notes:

• UW Career 
• 2,016 rushing yards on 353 carries with 21 TDs, 50 receptions for 331 yards and 20 kick returns with an average of 25 yards per return. 
• All-Pac 12 honors in 2017 and 2019.
• All conference Academic Honors in 2018 and 2019.  
• High School 
• USA Today All-State (WA) with 1,300 yards and 13 TD on a 6 game injury shortened senior year.  
• U.S. Army All-American Bowl. 
• Track guy.

Viewed -  Arizona 2019, Oregon 2019 and California 2019 - Will have to be receptive to coaching for the finer points of his game.  Would believe he has the speed to bounce outside for a big run but he doesn't venture beyond the tackles when there is nothing inside. Would have loved to see his track speed more on display vertically.

vs. 

Anthony McFarland:  Notes:

• Maryland Career 
• 1,636 rushing yards on 239 carries with 12 TDs and 24 receptions for 199 yards and 1 score.  
• Top rushing performance for 298 yards vs Ohio State (2018).   
• Terp freshman rushing record holder.  
• High School - Under Armour All-American.

Viewed - Ohio State 2018, Nebraska 2019 and Temple 2019 - Decisive. Very fast.  Explosive through holes and around the end. Runs through ankle tackles. Good vision.

Winner:  McFarland 

Salvon has a nice foundation but McFarland is much more decisive.

Round 2:  McFarland vs. #8 Perine

Perine Notes:

• Florida Career 
• 1,923 rushing yards on 357 carries with 14 TDs and 62 receptions for 593 yards and 7 scores.  
• High School 
• First Team All-State (AL) after a 1,600+ yard 15 TD senior year campaign. 
• Has the genes as his dad, Terrance played at Auburn and he is related to Samaje Perine and Myles Jack. 
• Grandfather was a college football player and coach. 

Viewed - Georgia 2018, South Carolina 2019 and Virginia 2019 - Looked really small.  Speedy.  Offense didn't give him a lot of opportunity to create. They spread him out a lot. He was explosive in the bowl game vs. Virginia.  

Winner:  McFarland 

Wanted Perine to be a nice surprise (and with other film he might be), but based on the games, McFarland.

Round 3: McFarland vs. #7 Akers

Akers Notes:

• FSU Career 
• 2,875 rushing yards on 586 carries with 27 TDs along with 486 receiving yards on 69 catches adding 7 TDs.  
• High School 
• A dual threat QB, he was considered by some outlets the RB1 in the nation his recruiting year. 
• 2X All State (MS) 
• Participated in the U.S. Army All-American Bowl and Nike's "The Opening".  
• Was U.S. Army Player of the Year as the nations most outstanding high school football player. 

Viewed - Boise State 2019, Florida 2019 and Clemson 2019 - Quick and fast, ran through arm tackles for TD.  Got back in a play to block on WR TD run so very aware of play concepts (Benefit of being a former QB). Showed off the arm on a trick play. A little Ole technique on blocking . Balance and lower body strength to drive. Unforced fumble. Can't happen. Nevermind...he will block an OT.  Annnd... a fumble...two fumbles. 

Winner:  Akers 

Man has fumble issues but of all things I read analysts believe are "correctable with coaching", this is definitely one of them.  Could be the value of the draft.

Round 4: Akers vs. #6 Vaughn

Vaughn Notes:  

• Illinois Transfer to Vanderbilt
• Burned 2017-18 season
• Career 3,296 rushing yards on 572 carries with 30 TDs along with 648 receiving yards on 66 catches and 3 TDs.  
• High School 
• 2X All-State (TN).
• Played in Offense-Defense All American Bowl after a 2,646 yard 45 touchdown campaign his senior year (2014) .
• Gatorade Player of the Year for Tennessee.  
• Track background.

Viewed - Baylor 2018, Georgia 2019 and LSU 2019 - Electrifying in Bowl game vs. Baylor,  but played about as good as you could expect vs. the two SEC championship game participants.  Showed promise as he seemed to realize during the LSU game he had to look for seams since there would be no holes opened.  Has a second gear.  Fiercely competitive.

Winner:  Akers 

Fair or not, Vaughn just got smothered in the 2019 games viewed against top flight contenders.  He looked great when he had more than 0.1 seconds before being swarmed.  Still a lot of upside to Vaughn as a "sleeper".

Round 5:  Akers vs. #5 Moss

Moss Notes:  

• Utah Career 
• 4,067 rushing yards on 712 carries and 38 TDs over a four year career, plus 685 receiving yards on 66 catches and 3 TDs. 
• High School 
• Senior year campaign garnered 1,098 rushing yards and 17 TDS.   
• Earned MVP honors running backs at the Rivals Camp in the highly competitive Miami area. 
• Cousin of NFL veterans Santana and Sinorice Moss.

Viewed -  Oregon 2019, Texas 2019 and Washington 2019 - Will need to accelerate processing; seems to diagnose too much.  Perhaps needs to trust playcalling and his teammates and just hit the holes. Not North South guy. Coaches will work with him on cut blocks. Good hands.  Has to remember to always contribute to the blocking game.  Even if they play action to you the play is not over after the fake. Will need to focus on driving thru holes, he sort of dances waiting for the hole to completely clear and that rarely happens in football. 

Winner - Akers 

Not a difficult decision there as Akers has a nice skill set that's hard to beat.  Moss has a lot of things going for him and I can't wait to see how he performs at the Combine where a stellar performance could boost his draft placing.

Round 6:  Akers vs. #4 Edwards-Helaire

Edwards-Helaire Notes:

• LSU Career 
• 370 rushing attempts for 2,103 yards and 23 scores, 69 receptions for 595 yards with 1 touchdown.  
• On special teams, he had 40 kickoff returns for 877 yards. 
• High School
•  Ranked RB5 in the nation by Scout composite rankings out of high school. 
• Participated in Nike's "The Opening".

Viewed - Georgia 2018, Texas 2019 and Auburn 2019 - Looked for holes more than seams so OL was a big factor in most home run TDs.  When the hole is not there; if he is not being pursued and has to decide the next step, it's 50/50.  50/50 in terms of escaping ankle tackles. Willing to pass protect so will  look to work on sharpening those skills. 

Winner - Akers 

I would say CEH had more big plays, but it seems Akers contributed more to his team's rushing game in terms of decision-making which will be critical at the next level.

Round 7:  Akers vs. #3 Taylor

Taylor Notes:

• Wisconsin Career 
• 6,174 yards on 926 carries with 50 TDs and 42 catches for 407 yards and another 5 scores. 
• 2X Doak Walker award winner (2018 and 2019).  
• Quickest player ever to reach 6,000 yards rushing,.
• 2X all-American. 
• Only player to rush for 1,900+ yards in 3 consecutive seasons.  
• High School
• All-State (NJ) as a senior.
• Set New Jersey single season rushing record (2,815 yards).  
• 2X captain and team MVP.  
• 4X state track champion including 2X 100 meter champion.  
• Father played basketball at San Francisco State.

Viewed - Iowa 2018, Oregon 2019 and Michigan State 2019  - Big and strong. Runs through arm tackles. Coaches need to make sure he is clear on reading holes as he sometimes ran into collapsing holes instead of bouncing out.  Had  ball stripped out when stood up by defense.  Not a lot of targets so not sure about  his hands.

Winner - Taylor 

Power, speed and vision. In the past Rose Bowl, Taylor pushed 3 Ducks 8 yards after contact.  His power is almost ludicrous.  He can blast through collapsing holes AND find seams. Pro level resources will strengthen his trust in his own reads.  

Round 8:  Taylor vs. #2 Dobbins

Dobbins Notes:

• Ohio State Career 
• 4,459 total rushing yards on 725 carries for 38 TDs, another 5 receiving touchdowns on 71 receptions for 645 yards.  
• High School 
• Missed his entire high school senior year due to injury
• Was All-State (TX) as a junior, with 2,740 yards and 35 TDS 
• Amassed over 5,000 yards rushing his 3 years as a starter with 74 total TDs.  
• Was the football rating champion at The Opening.

Viewed - TCU 2018, Wisconsin 2019 and Clemson 2019 - He can run....fast.  Pass protection work needs to be a priority that will certainly be discussed during his team interviews, for sure. Does not have the move-the-pile strength of some others.

Winner - Taylor

 Teams will have to understand exactly how much work the pass protection will need before Dobbins can be a true every down back and that makes Taylor a better prospect right now.

Round 9:  Taylor vs. #1 Swift

Swift Notes:

• Georgia 
• Total rushes were 440 for 2,885 yards and 20 TDs along with 73 receptions for 666 yards and 5 scores.  
• High School
• Career capped by All American honors.  
• PA writers state player of the year. 
• #1 recruiting prospect in Pennsylvania and RB6 nationwide, per ESPN.

Viewed - LSU 2018, Florida 2019 and Auburn 2019 - When he hits top speed he makes it look effortless.  Spends a lot of time moving laterally so he has no momentum to break tackles. Needs to decide to bounce out instead of waiting for the Hole that Never Opens.  Not a punisher; didn't see him run through a lot of 1st contact.

2020 Running Back Football Film Fight Champion...

Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin

And, he does yoga...watch this ESPN video and believe in the phemon. 

With the first installment on the rack, look for the next FFF soon!

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Final 2019-2020 FBS Highly Efficient Receivers for NFL Draft 2020

Receiver Return on Investment Efficiency for NFL Draft 2020

After reviewing the most efficient receivers each week of the FBS season, below are the final rankings for the 2019-2020 FBS wide receiver efficiency ratios based on my Return on Investment measure.  While you can find out more on ROI in detail here, let me just tell you what ROI is not:

• A Leading Indicator - You will read many articles imploring you to set your draft big boards based on certain metrics (breakout age, market share, Dominator Rating, etc.) but I would never recommend going down the list of ROI and assuming that as any sort of definitive ranking.  ROI is a screening exercise to find some players who may be missed by the mainstream media who have been telling us since last April who this year's top draft picks will be.  ROI is best used when you follow up on new names with film work to see why the player is super efficient...is it scheme?  Lack of talent of other teammates?  Lack of competition?  Or is the player just really, really good? ROI is designed to lead you down a path for further analysis. 
• Designed to Validate Top Players-  Because ROI sifts through to find players who get more production with fewer opportunities, brand name guys are often absent from the list.  Efficiency often misses those who get loads of opportunities to shine and so ROI will usually not include players who are well known or already at the top of the total receptions or yards lists (although this has happened).  ROI is most useful screening out lessor known players such as Kenny Golladay, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Boyd and others, than validating the top 3 popular NFL draft receivers.
• Touchdown Driven - Some efficiency measures include touchdown efficiency, however ROI leaves that out because so many other factors go into a TD that could be beyond the receivers control.  ROI is driven by the relationship between the aspects of targets, receptions and yards influenced by the receiver's ability.  My personal analysis looks at Recs/TDs with the following guys in the top 5:
• CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma - 1 TD every 4.4 receptions
• Tee Higgins, Clemson - 1 TD/4.5 recs
• Chase Claypool, ND - 1 TD/ 5.1 recs
• Omar Bayless, Arkansas State - 1 TD/ 5.5 recs
• Denzel Mims, Baylor - 1 TD/ 5.5 recs

For this analysis, ROI was graded based on the typical school scale, with the top score at 100% and everyone else rated based on their relationship to the top and average scores.   You will see the popular "College Dominator" (Dom) rating displayed also.  Although it differs greatly from ROI (as detailed here), Dominator ratings above 35% expect players to be at least late 1st round/early 2nd round prospects.  With that, check out the the qualifying receivers who will be available this coming April for NFL Draft:

Qualifying players had receptions > 1 standard deviation below the mean of the top 150 receivers based on yardage.
Color code: Blue > 2 Standard Deviations (StDv) above mean, Green > 1 StDv above , Bold Yellow within 1 StDv above, Yellow within 1 StDv below mean, Orange < 1 StDv below mean, Red < 2 StDv. 

 Notes

• Still Number One - Clemson's Tee Higgins went wire to wire as the most efficient draft eligible receiver with team shares of targets (17.7%), receptions (18.1%) and yards (27.0%) resulting in aggregate ROI of 51.4% which is 177% above the average (was 2 standard deviations above the mean)...not shabby.
• Uncommon - We had a pretty good showing of unicorn players in the Top 10 in terms of yards showing up with above average ROI ratings:
• Brandon Aiyuk, ASU # 10 in Yards, #3 in ROI
• Omar Bayless, Ark St. #1 in Yards, #8 in ROI
• Devin Duvernay, Texas #4 in Yards, # 10 in ROI
• CeeDee Lamb, Okie #5 in Yards, # 12 in ROI
• Antonio Gandy-Golden, Liberty #3 in Yards, #26 in ROI
• The Missing - The following were in the Top 10 in receiving yards but did not have similar ROI rankings:
• Justin Jefferson, LSU #2 in Yards, #35 in ROI with 23.6% team targets, 26.1% team receptions but 25.6% team yards (inefficiency in Rec/Yard conversion cost him in terms of ROI).
• Tyler Johnson, Minnesota #6 in Yards, #36 in ROI same story as Jefferson, Johnson was more efficient in converting Targets to a larger % of receptions than teammates but he was not able to convert the receptions into gratuitous yards.  
• Keep in mind, this is not atypical with players with such high College Dominator ratings (remember, ROI is NOT a leading indicator). 
• James Proche, SMU #9 in Yards, #46 in ROI with an Orange rating,  Proche (33.8% target/35.5% receptions/30.5% yards) was a huge ROI performer two years ago but has not been in the top of the ratings since.  Not sure if there was a QB or scheme change but it will be interesting to watch his video to see what happened to him. 
• Left Field Crew -  I focus on receivers and corners so when a name I never heard drops out of left field on my after screening out based on ROI, I really dig in to see if I missed a gem.  Those names include Arthur Jackson III, Eastern Michigan, Siasoi Mariner, Utah State, and Tony Brown, Colorado.
• The Elephant in the Room - I'm sure many of you searched for the consensus WR1's name and wondered why he showed up at #44 overall.  With Team Target% of 27.1%/Rec% of 26.8% and Yard% of 26.1%, a declining pattern over those three indicators negatively impacts ROI.  Remember ROI is more about finding diamonds in the rough than validating top names so the focus should be on the top of the list, not the bottom.

Thanks for hanging in all season and checking out the weekly ROI updates.  Looking forward to starting in Week 3 of the 2020 season.

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Draft 2020: Pass Rusher Early Look - UPDATED 1-6-20

After #1 Who is Next?

With the game on the line and your team MUST have a stop to emerge victorious, there is one player the entire fan base looks to and that is the pass rusher.  With the explosion to get past the offensive lineman on the snap, the ankle flexibility to bend around blockers and the power to take down the QB for a sack, the EDGE rusher (primarily the 4-3 DE or 3-4 OLB) is an invaluable chess piece when he is effective.

Let's take a look at some of the top Edge prospects for the 2020 NFL draft.

We start with the current draft eligible pass rushers in FBS who are in the Top 35 in terms of Total Sacks this past season.  Based on the number of defensive plays run by the player's team  ("Def Play", below) and the standard Sack measurement of one sack for a Solo and a half for an "Assist"  ("Total" below) here is the breakdown of the Top Sack men measured on their sack generating efficiency on a per play basis.

The ratio placings are converted to standard school scores (> 90% = A, > 80% = B, etc) above for easier contextualization.

Standard Sack Count

Based on the half sack method (sounds painful):

•  Chase Young is number 1.  No shock.  Even if he played in the games he missed due to the "suspension" and we counted those defensive plays, he would still have been about 10% above 2nd place Highsmith.  That is how dominant he has been. 
• Although Oluwole Betiku had only 9 sacks, his eligible play count was only 657 because he did not participate in 4 games - which is a whole different issue in itself.
• Even though 65 is a passing grade in school, anything below a 70 is considered Average for our purposes.
• Keep in mind the players are ranked based on peer ranking.  They are the best of the best to even be on the list, so finishing in the red does not mean the player is not worth a roster spot, it just shows how competitive it will be for Edge help in this year's draft.

Adjusted Sacks

As mentioned in the similar Edge analysis for last year's draft (read it here), the half sack designation is misleading and somewhat punitive- why should a player be penalized because he happened to get "home" at the same time as a teammate?  It is understood the half sack is required for NCAA record keeping but for analysis, we adjust the sack totals so that ADJ represents full credit for assists as it does for solo sacks. 

• Kenny Willekes (who appeared on last year's Tackles for a Loss analysis) benefited the most because his 7 solo and 7 sack assists adjusts to 14 total sacks - a 33.3% increase. 
• Curtis Weaver went the opposite way as his sack total was nearly dead on.  With just one sack assist  therewas no untapped value to wring out of his stats. 
• The top 4 had a nice mix of  solo and assists to maintain their slottings. 

Adjusted Sacks w/ Strength of Schedule Weighting

The final factor to consider is Strength of Schedule weighting.  This is not based on wins and losses but by a stat ranking of every team based on the number of Pass Plays/Sacks Allowed.  For reference, San Jose State was the toughest team to get a sack against (1 every 35.6 pass attempts) while Georgia Southern has work to do this summer (1 every 5.7 pass attempts). Each players sacks are measured against the teams that gave them up and the final sack total is adjusted.
Sacks against easier opponents? Sacks are reduced.  Sack opponents were better than average?  Your sack total improved.

The final column shows the change between the original standard sack calculation method and the SoS Adjusted.

• Willekes benefited most from this exercise, increasing 11 spots to #4 from #15.  
• Zack Baun declined 6 spots to #11.
• The top 3 Young, Highsmith and Bradlee Anae remained unaffected by the adjustments.

Remember, all these players are in the tops in terms of sacks so all will have intense film sessions  There are lots of other players who will hear their names called on Draft Day; looking forward to digging more into those on the list above and those who are absent.  

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GET READY FOR NFL DRAFT SEASON BY CHECKING OUT LAST YEAR'S "THE PEOPLE'S" TOP 100 CREATED FOR US BY US HERE!  

BALLOTS SO YOU CAN VOTE COMING SOON!!!!!