Friday, August 25, 2017

Who? Potential Breakout WRs for FBS 2017

Death, Taxes and College Football

Of the three things I know will eventually come, I look forward to only one. The 2017 college football season is almost upon us. Last season we saw possibly one of the "deepest" wide receiver classes in recent memory. While this year's class is full of potential, the real trick is identifying "under the radar" talent early. So who are the top potential "Breakout" candidates for the coming season?

How Do You Define "Breakout"?

A breakout player in this case would be (1) eligible for the 2018 NFL Player Draft, (2) collected greater than 40 receptions in the 2016 season (which is within 1 Standard Deviation of the average reception total of the top 150 in terms of receiving yards) and (3) did not lead his team in receiving yards in 2016. And, of course, player rankings are based on their Return on Investment (ROI) efficiency score using the average of Raw ROI and QB adjusted ROI (a quick and easy way to account for differences in QB quality when you just don't want to sift through hundreds of game play-by-play pdf documents counting receiver targets (which ain't easy, I assure you). So, here we go:

5. Steven Dunbar: Houston, Senior 6'3" 202 lbs 51 recs 669 rec yards 5 TDs

Everyone loves a winner and Dunbar's Rummel HS (Metarie, LA) won back to back state titles and also was part of the basketball team that made a run for the state title (love the multi-sport athletes). With that resume, you'd expect to see Dunbar at a more recognizable school but he had made up his mind to attend Houston in his Junior year and the other schools were just out of luck. Last year at Houston, Dunbar had the benefit of QB Greg Ward Jr, now of the NFL, who had above average accuracy based on his above average completion percentage. Former 5 star QB Kyle Allen transferred from across the state after an underwhelming (if that's a word) career at Manziel University (aka Texas A&M) where he helped contribute to a putrid passing game that was about 13% less accurate then average (only one other school in this analysis was worse). The return of the entire starting offensive line shouldn't hurt. The return of last year's number 1 WR Linell Bonner III might. If players buy what new coach Longhorn legend Major Applewhite is selling, Dunbar could be the "out of nowhere" guy everyone is talking about come next year's draft.

4. Jordan Lasley: UCLA, Redshirt Junior 6'1" 201 lbs 41 recs 620 rec yards 5 TDs

SoCal Lasley (Serra High - Gardena, CA) has the envious position of having a chip on his shoulder QB returning to show the world in Josh Rosen, who will have 4 of 5 starting linemen returning. Lasley, himself, took a redshirt his first year and was used sparingly his sophomore year leading up to his breakout 2016 season when he was second in terms of receiving yards and led the team with 5 TD receptions. Lasley is an honor roll student who can win using his head but also has the confidence and swag required to play the game. Should be an interesting year for him. Due to Rosen's injury, Lasley had some of the most inconsistent QB play of qualifying WRs for this study (his QBs completion percentage was almost 10% worse than average) so consistency from "The Rosen One" could go a long way for Lasley.

3. Keke Coutee: Texas Tech, Junior 5'11" 173 lbs 55 recs 890 rec yards 7 TDs

Some receivers get a bad rep for avoiding contact...Coutee is not one of them. But watch his HS highlight reel and you will see that he definitely doesn't like getting his uniform dirty - he doesn't get caught and tackled by defenders until after the 2 minute mark! "Clean" Coutee had the breakout year he was looking for with over 1,000 all purpose yards. He is shifty and tenacious but his fortune depends on if the gaping hole left by first round pick Pat Mahomes II can be filled by Iowa transfer Nic Shimonek (the Nic-ster is a former finalist for Texas player of the year in high school so, yeah, there's probably upside). Clean Coutee was second in team receiving yards only to Jonathon Giles who transferred to LSU (and wanted out so much, apparently, he will sit out a year) so he has that going for him. Which is good.

2. Cedrick Wilson: Boise State, Senior 6'3" 188 lbs 50 recs 1041 rec yards 10 TDs

Anyone who watches this space knows two things give me great joy in a prospect: (1) Pedigree kids -Cedrick's dad, Cedrick Sr. spent 7 seasons in the NFL, earning a Super Bowl ring with the Steelers in 2005 and (2) Converted High School QBs - Wilson as an All State (TN) QB having led his White Station (TN) team to the state semifinals as a senior. What other player on the team knows what everyone else is supposed to be doing other than the QB? With largely unsung WR Thomas Sperbeck graduated, Brett Rypien will be leaning heavily on Wilson as his go to receiver. Wilson also had a nose for the goal line having a Rec/TD ratio of 5.0x, far more productive than the sample average 11.7x (the top ratio was 3.5x, for reference). One year after transferring from Coffeyville CC (KS), Wilson is the #1 WR and has been elected a team captain. He exudes leadership and poise. We will see if he can capitalize in this position.

1. Jamire Jordan: Fresno State, Redshirt Sophomore 5'10" 173 45 recs 713 rec yards 2 TDs

After notching a single victory the entire season (against an FCS opponent) Fresno State hired new head coach Jeff Tedford to turn the program around. Receiver and return specialist Jordan ( over 1,000 all purpose yards in 2016) could be a big part of that plan. Another feather in his cap is Fresno State had the worst QB performance in the survey (greater than 16% worse completion % than average) so it can't get any worse, right? Jordan was not actively recruited outside of his native West Coast (with some mountain states in the mix) with interest from Washington and Utah. If Jordan can play with any sort of chip on his shoulder, that couldn't hurt his chance to stand out despite playing for a non-Power 5 school on the West Coast. Leading receiver KeeSean Johnson is also returning so we will really see how big of a chip Jordan carries on his shoulder.

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Saturday, August 5, 2017

2017 Pre-Season FBS Wide Receiver Return on Investment Top Ten

2017 NCAA Football Season is Near!

It’s August and the most wonderful time of the year is almost upon up…college football season! This space continues its mission of analyzing wide receiver efficiency/efficacy through the Return on Investment percentages. Based on statistics for the 2016-17 FBS season, the 10 players listed below consistently generated the most production from their reception opportunities.

What is Return on Investment?

Return on Investment for WRs is based on measuring how much better a player is than his teammates at producing receptions compared to target opportunities and yards compared to reception opportunities. The aggregate of these percentages gives us a player’s ROI. And while one player may be in a run first offense, another in a pass first and another in a balanced system, volume does not benefit the WR in this analysis as all statistics are based on rates.

For more on ROI, please review this article.

Who's Eligible?

To be eligible for this survey, WRs had to have a minimum of 41 receptions (which was the average for the Top 150 receivers based on reception yards, last year) in the 2016-17 season. Remember, ROI is NOT intended as a ranking systems in itself, rather, it was developed as a screening system to potential isolate potential NFL draft prospects for further analysis and review. This will be the fourth year of using ROI as a screening metric and the second consecutive year in using the same exact formula and methodologies, so we can begin to track the successes and (failures) of the system.

The Top

Shaedon Meadors Appalachian State 6’2” Senior ROI 38.947%– With 698 yards on 43 receptions, the former member of USA Today’s All USA South Carolina team accounted for 22.8% of his teams total receptions and cranked out 31.6% of App State’s total receiving yards. He produced 38.947% more yards than his reception distribution, good for the top spot. Senior QB Taylor Lamb, who has started for the Mountaineers since his true freshman season, is back under center behind a line that returns 3 of 5 starters. The familiarity should help Meadors remain consistent. Compared to the average ROI of 18.0% for the top 150 WRs (in terms of Reception yards), Meadors is 117% more efficient than the average WR.
Nick Westbrook Indiana University 6’3 Junior ROI 38.861%– Westbrook was in the top 50 WRs in terms of yardage with 915 yards on 49 receptions. He represented 19.8% of team receptions and 27.4% of team reception yards for a ROI of 38.861%. Granted, the team’s 2015 leading receiver Simmie Cobbs missed last year due to injury, but Westbrook, a former high school All State football player who also lettered in track and lacrosse, will look to capitalize on his relationship with returning Sr QB Richard Lagow who will be protected by 3 returning starting offensive linemen. ROI is 116% above average.
Ahmmon Richards University of Miami 6’1” 192 lbs Sophomore ROI 37.094% - This former consensus 4 star HS prospect quietly generated 866 yards (26.4% of team receiving yards) on 46 receptions (19.2% of team receptions). With Brad Kaaya’s (DET) departure to the NFL, Richards will need to get in synch with whomever earns the job. The new QB will at least have 4 experienced starters back on the OL who have hopefully jelled as a unit. ROI is 106% above average.
Cody Thompson University of Toledo 6’2” 205 lbs Senior ROI 37.091% - This former HS QB (who also served as punter) had a solid year with 1,170 yards (29.6%) on 59 receptions (21.6%). He will be joined by his fellow All MAC receiver Jon’Vea Johnson and returning Sr. QB Logan Woodside (who gets back 3 of 5 starting OL including his Left Tackle and Center) to continue to cause havoc through the league. I don’t see how Thompson doesn’t continue his onslaught in 2017. ROI is 106% above average.
James Washington Oklahoma State University 6’0” 205 lbs. Senior ROI 36.741% - After pulling down 60 catches (23.0%) for 1159 yards (31.4%), what does JW do for an encore? We shall see. This former high school All-State selection and state champion was also district MVP in basketball and all league in TENNIS…tennis? I bet if you put a saddle on him he could show in the Kentucky Derby. He gets back Top QB conversation gunslinger Mason Rudolph and 3 of 5 returning linemen. If you don’t love him, take a look at this and tell me you do not love him so we can revoke your human being card. ROI is 104% above average.
Demetris Robertson Cal-Berkley 6’0” 190 lbs. Sophomore ROI 36.443% - Gotta be honest. After Jared Goff (LAR) left for the pros, I sort of forgot about Cal. Sure, Chad Henson (NYJ) was entertaining but beyond that I would get distracted. So when Robertson screened out with 50 catches (13.1%) and 767 reception yards (17.8%) I was like, “who?” A 3 sport high school athlete who was a “Swiss Army Knife”, he’s going to have to rely on his wits out there with no marque replacement for last year’s “name” QB Davis Webb (NYG) with new starting tackles and LG. ROI is 103% above average.
Allenzae Staggers Southern Mississippi 6’1” 190 lbs. Senior ROI 32.399% - Totaling 935 yards (26.5%) on 52 catches (20.0%), Staggers has his work cut out for him. He loses the Golden Eagles’ all-time leading passer in Nick Mullens (SF) with no apparent heir apparent and the left side of his OL has moved on leaving 2 of last year’s 5 starters. A former All State multi-sport athlete, if Staggers can continue his productivity under these circumstances, he will definitely improve his overall draft stock. ROI is 80% above average.
Shay Fields University of Colorado 5’11” 175lbs. Senior ROI 31.507% - Although the Buffaloes lost QB Sefo Liufau (TB) to the NFL, his replacement and new current QB Steven Montez filled in for Liufau during his injury plagued season. So, at least Fields generated some of his 50 catches (19.3%) and 819 yards (25.4%) from his new full time starting QB. The Buffs bring back the whole starting OL except the RG so, if Montez can stay vertical, it could mean big things for Fields. ROI is 75% above average.
Jamire Jordan Fresno State University 5’11” 171lbs. Junior ROI 30.126% - Derek Carr’s former Bulldog locker may have been still a bit warm last year when the Bulldogs took a single victory the entire season…against FCS Sacramento State, yet! New head coach Jeff Tedford will definitely have ideas for improvement and Jordan, who notched 45 catches (21.4%) for 713 yards (27.9%), is a hopeful beneficiary. In terms of returning starters, Jordan gets back his QB, 4 of 5 Offensive Linemen (including the LT and C) and Tight End. If the blocking gets right, Jordan looks to show improvement. ROI is 68% above average.
Tre’Quan Smith University of Central Florida 6’1” 200 Junior ROI 29.699% - Although Smith started playing football relatively late (in his Jr year of high school), he obviously has a natural feel for the game, evidenced by 54 catches (24.8%) for 808 yards (32.1%). He’s hoping 2^nd year coach and returning starting Sophomore QB Mackenzie Milton can help him improve and place himself in the NFL draft conversation. ROI is 65% above average.

While crunching the numbers, I noticed a couple of interesting things:

Observations

Bring the Gravy I.V. – Based on simple body density (that is weight in lbs divided by height in inches), the top 10 are not as solid at the average WR for the 2016 player combine (based on their statistics listed on their schools websites):

2016 NFL Player Combine WR Average simple body density : 2.79 lbs/inch

Nick Westsbrook: 2.87 lbs/inch (2.7% above average)
James Washington: 2.85 lbs/inch (+2.0%)
Cody Thompson: 2.77 lbs/inch (-0.7%)
Tre’Quan Smith: 2.74 lbs/inch (-1.8%)
Denetrus Robertson 2.64 lbs/inch (-5.7%)
Ahmmon Richards 2.63 lbs/inch (-6.1%)
Allenzae Staggers 2.60 lbs/inch (-7.2%)
Shay Fields 2.46 lbs/inch (-13.2%)
Shaedon Meadors 2.43 lbs/inch (-14.7%)
Jamire Jordan: 2.41 lbs/inch (-15.8%)

In 2016, the average simple body density for the NFL’s top 30 WRs based on reception yards was about 2.89. Somebody's grandma needs to be on staff at the player's dining hall.

Touchdown Machines – Based on the qualified WRs in our survey, the following dudes are just TD beasts, crushing the average rate for a score of 11 receptions for 1 TD:

Dante Pettis University of Washington Senior – A TD every 3.5 receptions.
Cedrick Wilson Boise State – Rec/TD rate of 5.0
Jonathan Giles Texas Tech (sitting out this year given LSU transfer) - Rec/TD rate of 5.3
Shay Fields Rec/TD rate of 5.6
Jonathan Duhart – Old Dominion Senior Rec/TD rate of 5.6
Wyatt Demps Nevada Senior Rec/TD rate of 5.9
Cody Thompson Rec/TD rate of 5.9
Michael Gallup Colorado State Senior Rec/TD rate of 6.4
Equanimeous St. Brown Notre Dame Junior Rec/TD rate of 6.4
James Washington Rec/TD rate of 6.7

Sure, Blame the QB – In an attempt to account for QB accuracy (let’s face it, that has a lot to do with being a successful receiver), the ROI metrics were normalized based on the QB completion percentage for FBS of 60.3%. The guys how were already efficient by being above the average ROI despite crappy QB play get love here:

Malik Turner Illinois Senior – Turner gathered 48 receptions for 712 yards and 6 touchdowns despite having a team passing completion percentage that was 17.9% below average. His QB adjusted ROI is 38.5%
Jamire Jordan –His QBs were 16.2% off the average boosting him to 38.2% ROI.
Tre’Quan Smith - His passing attack was off by 10.6%, giving him adjusted ROI of 35.0%
Courtland Sutton Southern Methodist Junior- Despite the QB completion percentage off by 10.8%, Sutton put together a solid 76/1246/10 stat line in 2016. If he has worked on the finer points of his game over the summer, he will most likely enter the 2018 NFL Player Draft as a high projected pick.
Devonte Boyd UNLV Senior The WAC constantly hides gem receivers three of which over as many years, have been some of my favorite prospects. Two years ago it was Josh McCain of Idaho (did not receive an NFL offer despite leading the conference in receiving), last year it was Marcus Kemp (KC undrafted FA) of Hawai’I and this year Boyd. His QB play was the league worst at 28.4% off the average yet his QB adjusted ROI was 31.2% driven by a 45/746/4 stat line. I am a huge fan of this man.

As we get closer to opening kickoff, keep an eye out for the above.

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Thursday, July 6, 2017

2017 DraftTwitter 100 Success Compared to the Actual Draft

The DraftTwitter 100

In January 2017, a group of talented amateur scouts got together to embark on an experiment to see if DraftTwitter, that amorphous blob of football talent evaluation that resides in the Twitterverse, could rank NFL player prospects with the "accuracy" of pro scouts.

Keeping Track

The DraftTwitter Top 100 ("DT 100") was not meant to be compared to the actual NFL draft. Despite the "Best Player Available" draft strategy followed by some teams, many base their selections on team player personnel needs. So. while DraftTwitter's goal was to rank the 100 best prospects, teams like the Bears traded up to get the player they felt best fit their specific needs. So, how can we compare ourselves to the draft if the criteria used for selection are inconsistent?

Position Breakout

Instead of comparing The DT 100 to NFL's first through one hundredth picks, we can simply break out ranking by position. For example, here are the comparative rankings for the 8 RBS included in the DT 100 vs. their actual spot selected (Pos Pick, below):

Player	Pos Pick	DT 100	School
Leonard Fournette	1	1	Louisiana State
Christian McCaffery	2	2	Stanford
Dalvin Cook	3	3	Florida State
Joe Mixon	4	4	Oklahoma
Alvin Kamara	5	5	Tennessee
Kareem Hunt	6	7	Toledo
D'Onta Foreman	7	6	Texas
James Conner	8		Pittsburgh
Samaje Perine	9	8	Oklahoma
Tarik Cohen	10		North Carolina A&T

In the above example, the DT 100 matched up nicely, selecting the first 5 RBs in the exact order they were drafted, including nailing the complex Joe Mixon as RB4. The remaining RBs were each only off by one selection, proving the DT 100 RB class the strongest forecast by the project.

Obviously, we were pretty accurate with our RB picks, but how does one present this quantitatively?

The "V" Word Again

Not sure what some of you were thinking, but the "V" word we use time and again is Value. And what ultimately determines value is what someone is willing to give up to obtain something compared to another. While comparing one player's level of contribution to another is a nice way to start an interminable argument, it is not a good way to compare players. The Opportunity expense to have a player on your football team is ultimately measured in one way - contract value. By comparing a drafted player's projected slotted contract value to that of the position DraftTwitter predicted he would be picked, we find out if we over valued a player or got a great "bargain". (This assumes the actual draft order is "perfect" which it is since that is the standard we have until players actually start ringing up stats over the next few years).

If we add contract values to the table above, it looks like this:

DraftTwitter Top 100 - RB Rankings

Leonard Fournette	1	1	Louisiana State	$27,286,806	0%
Christian McCaffery	2	2	Stanford	$17,322,323	0%
Dalvin Cook	3	3	Florida State	$6,374,002	0%
Joe Mixon	4	4	Oklahoma	$5,465,848	0%
Alvin Kamara	5	5	Tennessee	$3,868,505	0%
Kareem Hunt	6	7	Toledo	$3,382,934	3%
D'Onta Foreman	7	6	Texas	$3,276,778	-3%
James Conner	8		Pittsburgh	$3,181,736
Samaje Perine	9	8	Oklahoma	$3,018,197	-5%

Leonard Fournette was the 4th overall pick, earning him a salary of $27MM. Since we had him as the first RB selected, we agree that his salary should have been identical and so he is at even value. Going down to Kareen Hunt, we had him as RB7 (with a contract value of $3,276,778) however the league told us he's RB6 (at a $3,382,934 value) so the NFL valued him 3% more than DT 100. On average, DT RB selections had a variance of only -1%., meaning we were pretty much dead on with our picks from a value standpoint compared.

In absolute values, the range went from 1% (RBs and Safeties) to 29% (the NFL valued the average LB about 29% more than we did):

Here is the table of how we performed at each position:

Position	Under/ (-Over)
CB	10%
DE	13%
DT	5%
LB	29%
OL	2%
QB	3%
RB	-1%
S	1%
TE	-4%
WR	-2%

LB includes OLB and ILB
OL includes C, G and T
S includes FS and SS

The Good

Out of the Top 100 players selected, DraftTwitter picked 26 correctly within their position group. The most accurate group was the RB group, in which we picked 63% correct.

Position	Bullseyes
CB	27%
DE	27%
DT	27%
LB	44%
OL	8%
QB	20%
RB	63%
S	10%
TE	17%
WR	54%

The Bad

We were off the most, by far, with the LB group:

Player	Pos	Pos Rank	DTR	School	Total Value
Haason Reddick	OLB	1	2	Temple	$13,538,340	23%
Jarrad Davis	ILB	2	6	Florida	$11,015,687	106%
T.J. Watt	OLB	3	7	Wisconsin	$9,295,615	97%
Reuben Foster	ILB	4	1	Alabama	$9,071,121	-33%
Tyus Bowser	OLB	5	9	Houston	$5,591,978	52%
Ryan Anderson	OLB	6	10	Alabama	$5,339,704	47%
Raekwon McMillan	ILB	7	8	Ohio State	$4,709,050	5%
Zach Cunningham	OLB	8	3	Vanderbilt	$4,482,010	-52%
Duke Riley	LB	9	11	Louisiana State	$3,684,055	16%

The numbers were all over the place: DT` 100 had Reuben Foster at LB1, but the NFL thought he was no better than LB4, so we got him at a huge 33% discount to his NFL value. On the other hand, the NFL didn't watch the same tape DraftTwitter did because they wrote a $11MM check to Jarrad Davis at LB2 compared to the $5.3MM check DraftTwitter had ready for him. That is a 106% premium to where DT had Mr. Davis. The closest we came to agreeing with the NFL on LBs was Raekwon McMillan who came at only a 5% premium compared to DT 100's.

The Ugly

The RB table shows how good DT 100 was with that player position. We were also 1% off for Safeties but despite the nearly identical differential compared to RBs (off -1%), our skill at picking Safeties was pretty far worse. What do I mean?

Jamal Adams	S	1	1	Louisiana State	$22,367,629	0%
Malik Hooker	S	2	2	Ohio State	$12,655,428	0%
Jabril Peppers	S	3	4	Michigan	$10,385,025	52%
Budda Baker	S	4	3	Washington	$6,853,308	-34%
Marcus Maye	S	5	8	Florida	$6,575,816	45%
Marcus Williams	S	6	6	Utah	$6,260,481	0%
Justin Evans	S	7	10	Texas A&M	$5,213,582	23%
Obi Melifonwu	S	8	5	Connecticut	$4,519,852	-31%
Josh Jones	S	9	7	North Carolina State	$4,242,361	-19%
John Johnson	S	10		Boston College	$3,361,028
Delano Hill	S	11		Michigan	$3,287,014
Tedric Thompson	S	12		Colorado	$3,030,488
Eddie Jackson	S	13	9	Alabama	$3,024,247	-29%

Although DT 100 got 3 selections perfect, the other picks suffered from the values distributed over a larger number of picks and, thus, a wider range of contract values. So, overall the group performance was quite good (at 1% off) the fluctuation in numbers makes us realize we lucked out on this one when the differential was only 1%.

Superlatives

The overall most overvalued pick - According to our method, Adoree Jackson was by far the most overvalued pick out there. Tennessee picked him at #18 overall as CB3, with a contract value of $11.3MM. DT 100 had him as CB11 which actually went 66th overall at a contract value of $3.8MM. Based on the above, Jackson was a whopping 192% overvalued by the league.

According to Kent Lee Platte's (aka MathBomb) Relative Athletic Score maps a player's potential to his athletic testing profile. Here is his RAS for Jackson:

His height and weight were his only "red" metrics and his overall RAS is very promising.

Here are some other players who were overvalued by > 50%:

Taco Charleton 98% (Actual pick: DE5 [#28 overall]; DT100 DE6 [#51])
TJ Watt 97% (Actual pick: LB3[#30]; DT100 LB7 [#54])
Adam Shaheen 86% (Actual pick: TE5 [#45]; DT100 TE6 [#100])
Garett Bolles 57% (Actual pick: OL1 [#20]; DT100 OL3 [#34])
Tyus Bowser 52% (Actual pick: LB5[#47]; DT100 LB9 [#75])

The best bargain pick - Unfornately for Bucky Hodges, DT100 had him at TE4 which went at pick #44 overall with a contract value of $6MM but the NFL wasn't as high on him. He didn't get called until the 201st pick as TE13 (appropriate) with a contract value of $2.5MM, massively undervalued at 59%. but also the potentially biggest bargain of this draft.

Take a look at his RAS score:

The guy was 14 out of 463 - better than 96.7% of all qualifying TEs in Kent's database. But he lost out on a lot of money with his drop through the rounds.

Here are some other players who were undervalued by > 30%:

Jake Butt -55% (Actual pick: TE8 [#145 overall]; DT100 TE5 [#45])
Zach Cunningham 52% (Actual pick: LB8[#57]; DT100 LB3 [#30])
Deshaun Watson 52% (Actual pick: QB35 [#12]; DT100 QB1 [#2])
Caleb Brantley 35% (Actual pick: DT14 [#185]; DT100 DT4 [#65])
Obi Melifonwu 31% (Actual pick: S8 [#56]; DT100 S5 [#39])

Looking Forward

With 2017 results recapped, we can now look forward to the 2017-18 NCAA college football season. Throughout the season, we will post weekly Wide Receiver Return on Investment calculations and specialty articles on prospects across all positions in FBS, FCS, Division II and III. Occasionally, I might throw in an NFL progress report on a success of a particular draft class. And in January 2018, we will look to launch another DraftTwitter Top 100 survey to all interested parties.

Thank you and feel free to drop me a line at Boombearjr@gmail.com.

Wednesday, May 17, 2017

Comparison Tool for the 2017 NFL Player Draft

Value is the Name of the Game

A regular reader of this blog will know that value, or getting more for less, is a common theme. After the 2016 draft, I put together a spreadsheet to compare players' relative values given their slotted draft salary. The thought being, if a franchise is going to pay X time more for a player, he should provide X more value. Below I provide the link to this years Comparison tool that I hope you will use.

Well, What is Value?

According to Merriam-Webster, Value is "relative worth, utility or importance". Whether that is measured in term of actual overall wins achieved with that player on board, that player providing a long term solution at a particular position, actual stats, star power to drive attendance and merchandise sales or a combination of those (or other) factors, value means different things to different people. We have no greater example of the subjectivity of value than the Chicago Bears trade up one spot with SF to go get Mitchell Trubisky.

So in assessing value for this exercise, the standard is comparing projected contract values which reflect the draft spot of each player. Because the rookie contracts are set based on selection, this is a fairly pure way to ascertain comparative value. While it can get kind of crazy at times, such as the aforementioned Trubisky being over 11x more valuable than Brad Kaaya, when you consider the position of the former compared to the latter to make a huge impact on his new team simply by the fact that they will live and die by his success may support that valuation. That Kaaya will sit for a while does not mean he will inevitably be as, if not more, valuable than Mitchell, his value to the franchise is not as high right now because they are not so tied to his success.

From another, less esoteric standpoint, if value means "head-to-head" who is the better player, than being 11x better than anyone is tough to rationalize especially when we're talking about rookie QBs. But time will tell.

Using the Comparison Tool

The "Cap" tab lists the draftees and certain information included their projected rookie contract value (thanks to Spotrac.com for the information).

The Comparison Tool asks you to pick two players to compare in which Player A will be judged in terms of Player B. The players are accessible through the drop down list for each cell which is in alphabetical order by first name. The resultant value represents their relative value by way of their draft position contract value.

Here are a couple of my favorites:

Buffalo WR Zay Jones is nearly twice as valuable as Tampa Bay's Chris Godwin.
Injured Eagle Sidney Jones is also nearly twice as valuable as fellow CB Cordrea Tankersley of MIA who was previously seen as a likely top draft pick.
CAR's drafting of fullback Alex Armah at #192 overall made him more valuable by 1% than highly touted MIN TE Bucky Hodges.

The Link

Here is the link to the Boombearjr 2017 NFL Draft Comparision Tool: please explore, have fun and @Boombearjr on Twitter with your favorite comparisons.

Thank you and feel free to follow me on Twitter and Facebook

Thursday, April 27, 2017

The Final DraftTwitter Top 100 - Who's Responsible?

Naming Names...

Our Final DraftTwitter Top 100 list has been posted giving you the aggregate rankings of the best players in the upcoming NFL Draft.

Open the link, below for each contributors' Top 100 and feel free to scroll down to the "Who's Responsible" section below for a bit of background on each.

Pick by Pick DraftTwitter 100

Ranking the Picks-Selection Differential

This is America and as Americans we always ask, "Who won?" The point of this survey was to try to unify the various scouting styles to get an aggregate Top 100 players list. But, we can measure each contributor based on a value of each contributors' Selection Differential.

This table shows the average differential between each scouts Top 100 picks compared to the aggregate Draft Twitter Top 100. For example, if a contributor selected Player X as his #1 and he ends up at #5 in the Top 100, the differential is 3; if one had Player Y at 5 and the DraftTwitter list has him at 23, that is an 18 differential. The average of each picks' differential to determine the average differential. The lower the number, the more in line with the aggregate Top 100 that contributor's picks were. A higher number just means the contributor had picks that varied more from the average.