Saturday, November 26, 2016

NCAA WR Return on Investment Update week ending 11/19/16

Rivalry Week is upon us, showcased by the Game of the Year with #2 Ohio State vs. #3 Michigan.   Looking forward to how that and the other games this week shape the conference championship games and the BCS playoffs.


What is Wide Receiver Return on Investment?

In short, ROI represents the amount of yards a receiver generates in excess of his distribution quota.   This allows us to see which receivers make the most of their opportunities.

For a more detailed description, follow this link to Return on Investment

FBS Top Performers - through 11/19/16 

DNQ indicates the player did not have enough receptions to qualify for inclusion the prior week (Players must be within 1 standard deviation of the average receptions of the Top 150 WRs)
This Week
Last Week
Player
College
Year
ROI
X Above Avg
Rec/TD
1
1
Deangelo Yancey
Purdue
Sr.
80.1%
 5.20
4.8
2
2
Jimmy Williams
East Carolina
Sr.
57.8%
 3.75
5.7
3
3
Josh Reynolds
Texas A&M
Sr.
44.1%
 2.86
5.1
4
6
Josh Malone
Tennessee
Jr.
43.7%
 2.84
4.2
5
5
Sabastian Smith
Ohio
Sr.
43.7%
 2.84
11.5
6
10
Ardarius Stewart
Alabama
Jr.
39.5%
 2.56
5.6
7
12
Shaedon Meadors
Appalachian St.
Jr.
35.2%
 2.29
39.0
8
16
Amba Etta-Tawo
Syracuse
Sr.
34.4%
 2.23
9.0
9
7
Shay Fields
Colorado
Jr.
33.9%
 2.20
5.4
10
13
Cody Thompson
Toledo
Jr.
33.8%
 2.20
5.6
11
9
James Washington
Oklahoma St.
Jr.
33.8%
 2.20
6.7
12
15
Chance Allen
Houston
Sr.
33.3%
 2.16
12.0
13
18
Amara Darboh
Michigan
Sr.
32.1%
 2.08
7.3
14
19
Carlos Henderson
Louisiana Tech
Jr.
30.2%
 1.96
3.8
15
22
Devonte Boyd
UNLV
Jr.
30.2%
 1.96
11.3
16
8
Marcus Kemp
Hawaii
Sr.
29.8%
 1.93
10.8
17
27
Devin Gray
Cincinnati
Jr.
29.0%
 1.89
13.3
18
23
Austin Carr
Northwestern
Sr.
28.6%
 1.86
6.7
19
14
Allenzae Staggers
Southern Miss.
Jr.
26.8%
 1.74
8.3
20
DNQ
Tim Patrick
Utah
Sr.
26.1%
 1.70
7.6
Purdue's Deangelo Yancey finished 2016 in the Top 10 last year and he's proving more reason to check him out with the highest ROI and highest ROI margin between numbers 1 and 2 in each division. Based on the numbers, Yancey's ROI is 5.2x better than the average player. 
To compare, Yancey's percentage of team receptions was 14.9%, similar to Ole' Miss' Damore'Ea Stringfellow (15.3%) and Texas Tech's Cameron Baston (14.3%). However, Stringfellow represents  17.9% of team receiving yards for  for a solid QB weighted ROI of 17.3% while Baston represents 12.4% of team rec yards, resulting in a negative or inefficient ROI of (-17.7%).

Senioritis?  Four of the top 5 draft eligible ROI receivers in FBS are seniors, who have kicked production into high gear to close out their college careers. 

Wire to wire. Josh Reynolds of Texas A&M has been the only WR on the FBS Top 20 list every week of publishing.  No surprise seeing as how he had a solid 2015 ROI Top 10 campaign. 


FCS Table

This Week
Last Week
Player
College
Year
ROI
X Above Avg
Rec/TD
1
1
Jaris Scott
Davidson
Jr.
57.7%
 3.08
16.5
2
5
Isaiah Barnes
Princeton
Sr.
53.6%
 2.86
11.8
3
2
Christian Summers
Towson
Sr.
46.7%
 2.50
7.8
4
4
Miles Thompson
Indiana St.
Jr.
43.8%
 2.34
6.2
5
13
Darious Crawley
McNeese
Jr.
43.0%
 2.29
16.5
6
8
Anthony Warrum
Illinois St.
Sr.
42.9%
 2.29
4.9
7
DNQ
Ray Bolden
Stony Brook
Jr.
40.9%
 2.19
6.0
8
9
Devonte Dedmon
William & Mary
Jr.
40.6%
 2.17
6.3
9
10
Will Carter
Bucknell
Sr.
40.5%
 2.16
6.6
10
17
Joey Fields
Central Conn. St.
Jr.
38.9%
 2.08
15.0
11
6
Jordon Gandy
Murray St.
Jr.
35.9%
 1.92
6.1
12
11
Elijah Marks
Northern Ariz.
Jr.
34.3%
 1.83
4.1
13
7
Wayne Capers
Duquesne
Sr.
33.5%
 1.79
6.5
14
3
Brian Riley
San Diego
Sr.
32.7%
 1.75
6.4
15
19
Spearman Robinson
Western Caro.
Sr.
32.2%
 1.72
15.7
16
12
Gatlin Casey
Lehigh
Jr.
32.1%
 1.71
5.1
17
24
Kegan Moore
Stetson
Sr.
31.8%
 1.70
8.2
18
20
Mason Rutherford
Delaware St.
Jr.
31.5%
 1.68
15.7
19
18
Stephen Miller
Northern Colo.
Sr.
29.7%
 1.58
11.3
20
21
Danny Cotter
Butler
Sr.
28.8%
 1.54
38.0

Jaris Scott retains his spot on the top as FCS heads into the playoffs.  Looking forward to seeing if he or any other FCS WRs get opportunities to impress at invitational all star games this winter.

Shameless Self-Promotion! 

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See you next week!


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