Day 3 of the NFL Draft - Who's Screwed?

Nothin' from Nothin' Leaves Nothin'

The great singer and part time mathematician Billy Preston may have had the NFL draft in mind when he wrote those lyrics.  After 2 days and 3 rounds, we get down to final day where we really get to see which teams did their homework and which teams are breaking out their officially licensed NFL Ouija boards to try to figure out who to pick next. 

Supply and Demand 

A few days ago, I provided an analysis of the supply of top players for this draft compared to projected team needs (provided by NFL.com) or their demand.  The detail was adjusted given the players coming of the board with the remaining needs reanalyzed to determine what teams will feel pressure to address certain needs, given the rapidly increasing projected ADP of the remaining talent.  As of the beginning of the third round, here is how it looks:

• Fulfillment Rate represents the excess percentage of how many Top 160 players remain in the draft at each position compared to the individual team needs.  Example:
• Based on the data source, Kyle Lauletta and Kurt Benkert are the last two available QBs remaining in the Top 160.
• Based on the NFL projected needs, there are 7 teams who have a QB on their priority list. 
• The "Fulfillment Rate", that is, the excess of the need to the supply, for QBs is -250%.

On the flip side, there are 7 Top 160 RB available and 4 teams with "need", therefore a surplus resulting a Fulfillment Rate of 42.9% exists.  Teams in this position have a decent shot at getting a nice player.

• ADP Decline measures the erosion in Average Draft Position projected from Pre-draft sources to the end of Day 2.  
• Going back to QBs, the average projected ADP at the start of Day 1 was  36.8.  After the top players came off the board over the first couple of days, we see ADP of 102, a decline of 177%.
• Because there is no Fulfillment Rate for Centers as each team with need has claimed their snapper, there is no ADP decline.

What's it All About?

The Bottom Line is some teams are in a tough spot as the Fulfillment Rates for the positions they need and the ADP decline (combined to give us a "Success Rate" are falling faster than Facebook's new member sign ups. 

High Priority represents 1st (highest) and 2nd priority rankings for that team.

• The Giants had better be sure about Davis Webb.  They have set themselves up to rely on Webb or take a lottery ticket in later rounds for a QB.
• It's going to be interesting to see how quickly Linebackers fly off the board, given the Success Rate is third lowest and there are 6 teams looking to fill spots in their defenses' 2nd level.
• While there are needs at Safety, Receiver and Running Back, no team has primary or secondary needs, so the urgency to draft these positions is not great. 
• Defensive Linemen/Tackles have the lowest ADP decline so I would expect High Priority teams with jump on the few remaining top players early. 
• The only position left where the "Success Rate" is positive is Offensive Tackle, so I would expect that position to be snapped up early. 
• OAK, DET  and JAX each have two high priority positions remaining to be filed so don't be surprised if those teams are aggressive and trade up at some point. 

Enjoy Day 3!

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