Sunday, December 2, 2018

Final Regular Season FBS Wide Receiver ROI through Week 13!

The 2018 Regular Season is in the Books!

FBS holds Conference championship games this weekend and the FCS, D2 and D3 tournaments are underway (and so, no change in those season ending numbers).  So let's take a look at the most efficient receivers in FBS based on our own Return on Investment metric after the end of the regular season for 2018.

Week 13

  • There is a new column to the usual table presented above includes"Density" or weight/height as a simple way to compare body mass of different sized players - for example, 6'1" 205 lbs Ratliff-Williams of UNC is the same "size" as 6'6" 219 lbs Custis of 'Cuse.  
    • D/Avg or Density to Sample Average shows you how under or overweight each player is to the average density of the NFL Top 20 Receivers (in terms of receiving yards).
    • Based on the above, my boy Scotty Miller from Bowling Green would have to gain about 30 lbs to hit the average...that's a lotta lasagna.
Here are a few comments about some of the Top 20...
  • He did not go wire to wire but the 6'6" 219 lbs Hakeem Butler of Iowa State spent every week he was in the Top 20 at the #1 or #2 spot, finishing with the top raw ROI of 298% better than average (of the top 150 Rec Yard WRs).   Although he has not yet declared, his skill set is on par with some of the top  prospects for the upcoming 2019 NFL draft.  Here is a nice video from his Travis (TX) High School days which shows his skill set was broad and developed back then...enjoy the music. 
 Hakeem Butler - Blurry but good!

  • Louisiana Monroe's Marcus Green dropped from #2 overall at #9 with an ROI to Avg of 114% but has the distinction of the only player to make the Top 20 list each and every week it was published!  Dude has a charmed life from his ULM bio (mom is a professional singer, honor roll in HS, balled out at basketball also, etc.). Although he is just 5'8" he is 191 lbs and so he has the body mass to last at the next level.   Here is a video of his highlights but don't forget to click through here if you want to see a 5'8" man slam a basketball. 
Marcus Green, on a mission
  • ECU's Trevon Brown has recovered from some tough times to make back to back season ending appearances on our Top 20 list, showing consistency year over year. ECU has quietly churned out some NFL caliber receivers and Brown is looking for the chance to be the next.  Not a huge amount of cut up video out for him at this moment, so here is a HS video of him scoring 6 TDs on 6 touches. He shows nice hands here and great concentration; teams must also respect his return ability.  

  • Finally, Shawn Poindexter of Arizona was just one week away from joining Green in earning a spot on each of our Top 20 lists.  The former scholarship volleyball player out of high school slipped under the radar after going the JUCO route making All-ACCAC honors in the process.  His "late" start hasn't hindered his progress as he led the team in receiving this year.  At  6'5, he will draw lots of interest this coming draft season.  Here is footage from Glendale CC. 

Post Season ROI

As the Bowl games and FCS, DII and DIII tournaments proceed, check out this space for updated, final ROI rankings.  These metrics will expand to include target numbers which can always modify the preliminary rankings.

Shameless Self-Promotion!!!


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Continue to watch this space for more NFL Draft commentary. 

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