Catch Up
Week 12 is wrapping up so let's take a look back at Week 11's Top ROI performances:
FBS
This week we will take a look at a couple of new perspectives on wide receivers, starting with the usual Return on Investment table for all qualifying (total receptions at least 1 standard deviation from the mean or better of the top 150 receivers in terms of yards) junior and seniors.
- As we get near the end of the season, the large volume of data on each player begins to flatten the trends and, as such, we don't see many significant changes in the Top 14 compared to last week, with 6 of those players unchanged.
- The Ruler's Back - Butler repeats as #1 with his fifth showing on the ninth list (recall, the first list came out in Week 3 of the season). I have seen him projected at WR14 overall, so he could be a huge bargain if his game film is solid.
- There's Only One - Green is the only FBS player to show up on every Top 20 list so far this year (Poindexter from Arizona fell off). His ability as a return man potentially gives him extra value for NFL draft.
- No Scrubs - There are no new entries on the list; all have been in the top 20 at some point this season.
- Top Gun - Isabella led FBS in receiving yards through Week 11 and remains in the Top 20 for the second consecutive week. If he can hang on until the final list, he would be the first receiving yards leader to do so.
- Thanks for Showing Up - Scotty Miller and Edwards were on the pre-season ROI watch list and are making a run to finish in the Top 20.
- Twins - There is only one school with multiple players on the list this week and that is Buffalo with potential 1st round draft pick Johnson and his teammate, Osborn.
Unqualified Successes?
The list below includes all draft eligible receivers (excluding redshirt freshmen) as described above, except we ignore the relationship to the mean.
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- The Gray background indicates a player would not have qualified for Final ROI consideration; the Green did or would have qualified.
- Ubosi of UAB would have had a staggeringly high efficiency of greater than 400% of average but his total reception total is about 48% below average so we have to look to see if this is related primarily to him receiving deep passes or his Yards After Catch.
At one point in its short history, ROI ignored the relationship to the mean qualifier and we saw a lot of guys who had high YPR numbers but also fairly one dimensional relying on deep threats like Devin Smith and Sammie Coates. The qualifier was put in place to ensure the players have a meaningful sample however, as with Ubosi, careful review of actual game play might help find a diamond in the rough.
Touchdown Proficiency
Earlier versions of ROI included a measure for Touchdown "efficiency"; the struggle was how to properly weight TD production given WR skill in each particular situation is one of so many other factors come into play. While this challenge persists, we can review the rate of TDs production to support further NFL draft research into a name that might be new.
The table above lists the Touchdown Proficiency for draft likely (juniors and seniors) players. The number is based on the rate of that player's TD production compared to that of the rest of his teammates.
- ECU's Brown led the list producing TDs at a rate 592% better than average for the top 150 WRs based on receiving yards (through Week 11).
- Brown was one of 9 players on the TD Proficiency list to also make the Top 20 ROI list.
- Of the remaining 11 players, one, Arcega- Whiteside, had ROI above the sample mean of 16.6%.
- Of the remaining 10, just 4 (Bussey Jr., Harry, Boykin and Winston Jr) have positive ROI; that is, they generate more yards than one would project based on the pro rata reception distribution for their teams.
- The remaining 6 (Bradford, Mims, Duhart, Thompson, Sills V and Jennings) provided negative ROI; this is not to say they are not excellent receivers as there are many factors that could contribute to inefficient ROI. (Recall ROI is not a leading indicator, but it provided a way to "screen out" performers who might be under the radar).
The Rest of the NCAA
Somehow, as if by wizardry, the other 3 NCAA divisions, FBS, Division 2 and Division 3 have figured out how to have a playoff system. We skip week 11 for these divisions and will provide a final, pre-playoff ROI and Touchdown Proficiency analysis for each in the forthcoming week.
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