Week 8 NFL Picks Results/Week 9 Forecast

Wrong Way

Well, all good things come to an end.  After notching 9 wins in Weeks 5 and 6 and 10 last week, I fell back to earth with a 7-8  week.  A pathetic 2-3 for Best Bets.  Ick.

Looking to turn it around with this week's slate; only 3 Best Bets.

There is no Thursday pick because I got waylaid making Halloween costumes and couldn't post.

And please, no wagering.  For entertainment purposes only.

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Check out the projection for the 2nd Half of the 2019 NFL Season here!

NFL 2nd Half and End of Year Standings Forecast

Half Way Point

The 2019 NFL season is turning the corner as teams prepare for their Week 9 games which means we are kicking off the second half of the season.  Based on team performance in the first half of the season here are the 2nd half forecasts for each team followed by a prediction of the final standings.  Here we go!

Through Week 8

Along with the actual wins (W), losses (L), ties (T)  and win percentage (%) headings, we added:

• Rank - The Team rank based on win percentage. 
• SoS Rank - Strength of Schedule Rank is based on actual peer performance comparison through Week 8; 1 is the easiest schedule and 32, the hardest.
• %OP/UP - Percentage Overperformance (positive) /Underperformance (negative) reflects if the team performed better or worse than expected given the competition.  
• NO was 13th in terms of strength of schedule and is ranked 3rd in terms of win %, representing 30% overperformance (and that is with their starting QB out for several weeks).
• The only two teams with better win percentages, NE and SF, had much easier going with the 1st and 2nd easiest schedules, respectively.
• On the flip side, DAL has the 3rd easiest schedule and is the 13th overall team in terms of win % so, you guessed it, they underperformed by 30%.
• The teams performing exactly as they should given the competition are NE, NYG, TB and MIN.

Looking Forward

Using the performance of teams for the first half, I projected the wins for the rest of the 2019 Season.  Win and losses are predicted based on a comparative model. Ties were not included in the simulation.


Variance indicates the change between 2nd half win percentage and that for the 1st half for each team.

• OAK will see win percentage drop .313 compared to the 1st half of the year.  Even though their strength of schedule got easier (from 25th to 7th) the average schedule for all teams should get easier going forward.
• CIN is projected to see the best improvement compared to 1st half by 0.375 (their win rate is 0.00) as they pull out 3 wins driven by the 5th easiest schedule of the 2nd half.
• Teams projected to duplicate their 1st half performances with the exact same record are both LA teams LAC and LAR, NE, NO and PHI.
• MIN is expected to be the juggernaut of the league going 8-0 the second half with the 25th toughest schedule.
• My NYJ will have the "weakest" opposition but, based on how they've played thus far, the model has them winning only two games, sweeping MIA in the division home and home.

Final Tally

When you look at the actual 1st half and my projected 2nd half:

• Contenders:  Teams with 1st half success, NE, SF, NO, MIN and GB continue their winning ways. 
• Pretenders:  MIA is joined by ATL at the bottom of the rankings with NYJ, CIN and WAS rounding out the list.
• Against All Odds: KC has the 2nd toughest schedule and is projected to finish 7th overall.  This projection has not taken into account the impact of the Mahomes injury.
• Better Luck Next Year:  With the toughest schedule, ATL finishes about where we would expect, at #31 overall.  Hard to overcome tough scheduling like that.
• In Search of Perfection: Two teams are undefeated at the halfway mark, but the projection has NE the only one remaining unblemished at the end of the regular season. SF is projected to fall to GB is Week 12 ending their run at perfection.
• Virgins, No More:  No team is projected to finish without a win with MIA expected to get the win vs. CLE in Week 12 and CIN over PIT that same week.

Final Standings:  AFC 

NFC 

Thoughts?  Please leave a comment below. Check back at the end of the year to see how this forecast compared to real life.

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Join me for a look at Offensive Line performance here.







NFL Power Ranking Through Week 7

Power to the People!

Below you will find the updated NFL power rankings based on nothing but numbers. No decisions other than the font were required by me.
Major news outlet Power Rankings are listed and their aggregate average is compared to my Power Ranking with the Over/Under difference showing how divergent we are.
Enjoy!

NFL Week 7 Picks Review/Week 8 Forecast - UPDATED 10/24/19

Not a bad week:  10 out of 14; 4 of 5 best bet winners.

Looking to this Week with the Green representing Most Confident. Entertainment purposes, only, please. (UPDATED 10/24/19 - a minor calculation error resulted in changing the outcome of the MIN vs Was game with the Vikings covering).



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NCAA Wide Receiver Return on Investment Updates for All 4 Divisions!  Check it out here!

NCAA Wide Receiver Efficiency through October 20, 2019 for FBS, FCS, DII and DIII

ROI for Every NCAA Division

You know why we are here...but if you don't, check out an explanation of "RETURN ON INVESTMENT"

One note, the presentation for ROI is now based on the percentage above average for the Top 150 receivers for that week, based on receiving yards.

FBS

• T 'n' T - Tee Higgins and Tamorrion Terry held to their #1 and #2 spots, respectively.   Higgins' Efficiency (mainly, the production output his team can expect when he is entrusted with the football) is 330.7% above that of the average FBS receiver.  Wow.
• New Kid in Town - Quez Watkins flew into the #3 spot on a lightning bolt.  He previously had strong ROI but he didn't meet the minimum number of receptions established under the "Sammie Coates" rule but after last week's performance, he makes the best debut of the week.
• Staying Power - There are only 7 players who have been on each of the first four Top 20 lists this year:  Higgins, Terry, Gandy-Golden, Bayless, Rozner , Davis and Bradley.

FCS

Formerly called "Division I-AA", FCS has its own share of solid, highly efficient receivers.

• Hinds CC (MS) transfer Chris Blair retained his #1 spot from last week with 14.6% of team's receptions and 26.6% of his teams receiving yards.
• Maine Black Bear Earnest Edwards was pretty much a beast out of HS:  All-State (NY), 2X state champs, MVP of the state championship game, 5x state champ at Bball.  So when you check his Rivals page which lists his highest profile offer coming from local Buffalo, you have to think him being billed at 5'10" 170 lbs may have limited his options.  Regardless, the kid is nice. Just YouTube him...
• A graduate transfer Keyston Fuller was dealt a tough hand. As an All-State (GA) WR considered WR27 in the nation, he signed to Duke then redshirted his freshman year only to take a medical redshirt his next year. He played in all games the next two seasons but was not an impact player. At Richmond, he has a shot to prove himself and we will be watching. 



Division II

The D2 and D3 receivers include height, weight and Touchdown Rate along with ROI Above Average rate.

Division III

Touchdown Rates

Personal Rate = Rate of Receptions per Touchdown (Ceedee Lamb has 10 touchdowns and 31 receptions)

Team Comp Rate = Personal Rate compared to Team's overall Touchdown Rate (example, Aiyuk's touchdown rate is one every 6.4 receptions while the rest of the Sun Devils score at a rate of one every 28 receptions). 

Lamb's TD rate is impressive but the rest of the team also scores as a nice clip of 1 every 8 receptions so his Team Comp Rate is good but not great. 

NFL Power Rankings thru Week 6

"Off" represents the difference between the Experts' Average and our ranking.

• All By Myself - Despite having a more strenuous schedule so far this year, none of the Experts picked SF #1 overall like I did, unanimously going with the Patriots.
• The rest of my Top 4 remained unchanged.
• You Can't Win - The Chiefs lost to the Texans, so why is Houston trailing not only in my Ranking, but also according to 3 of the 5 Experts?  For me, the KC body of work is a bit stronger. Obviously, continued performance by the Texans will push them past KC. 
• Carolina Blues - The Panthers continue to win, knocking off a division opponent in the Bucs but go nowhere remaining flat at #10.
• Rising Star - Arizona flew up 9 places to #19 partially because they won their 2nd game but also because the tie they earned is giving them a boost against other teams with 2 wins and 3 losses.
• Lost their Footing? - The Los Angeles Mountain Goats went into the ravine this week against the Niners, as I predicted here) and they dropped 6 to #15, which was in Accord with the Experts' average.
• Bottom of the Barrel - Although there was some shifting in the bottom 4, the Experts' Average was in line with my cellar dwellers of #29 Falcons, #30 Washington, #31 Bengals and the Fins bringing up the rear at #32.😳 

Check out this space next week for Week Seven updated ratings.

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Look Back at NFL Draft 2019 to see which players are making an impact - check out and see how your favorite draft analysts colleagues on Twitter and Facebook graded the Top 100 here!

Week 6 NFL Picks Wrap Up/ Week 7 review

Week 6 

Not bad with a 9-5 week against the spread. 

Week 7 picks

Recall these numbers are as of 10/14/19, so if the line changes, I am not adjusting.
Remember, kids, for entertainment purposes only. I'm just checking to see if my calcs hold up in predicting winners.

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Week 7 FBS Wide Receiver Return on Investment Efficiency

Same as it Ever Was...

Clemson remained WRU for another week with Tee Higgins staying on top at the #1 spot, a position he's occupied since the first list was released this season - check it out and find out more detail into what "Return on Investment" or "ROI" is really all about...

Now at week 7 of the season, only those eligible for the NFL draft will be included in the list going forward.  Once we get to the declaration deadline, those returning to school will also be removed.

Who's New?

• Brandon Aiyuk of ASU is a JUCO All-American transfer.  He is as dangerous a return man as he is at the wideout position.  He makes the highest debut at #4. 
• T.J Simmons is a former Alabama all-state HS prospect who enrolled at Tuscaloosa but, given the depth we now see at the wideout position there, took his talents to WVU.  
• The recruiting process for Keylon Stokes was likely very brief. He was already familiar with the Tulsa program from his brother Keevan Lucas' experience there as a standout wide receiver. 
• Debuting at #12 is Ja'Marcus Bradley who was a dual-threat QB in HS.  His senior year he ran for 2,600 yards & 47 TDs while passing for 1,400 yards and 9 TDs. His all-around skill set could make him a hidden gem this coming NFL draft.
• Siaosi Mariner makes an interesting transition from Utah undergrad to Utah State grad transfer.  (Wonder if he will be welcome at Ute homecoming ever again?)
• Edwards and Patmon were regularly on the ROI list their junior years last year and are continuing to show extraordinary efficiency.
• John Hightower is a transfer from Hinds JC and is looking to put together a senior year to boost his draft potential.
• Trammell, not sure if he is related to baseball great Alan, but was also a baseball player in HS.  As a junior, he is likely not declaring for the NFL.

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What Defensive Stats Contribute Most to Wins?  Find out here

A Look at NFL Offensive Line Protection

It's What's Upfront that Counts

Offensive line...it's a mystery even to many who consider themselves football fans.  While they often go unnoticed, no one can deny they are one of the most vital factors deciding winning or losing.  

This article will take a look at two items, the rate at which QBs endure contact on a play and the Time to Throw for each starting QB.  There is no hypothesis, that is, I'm not trying to prove anything.  I am just very curious about what the numbers might tell us.  

The Measures

Quick on the Draw...

Time to Throw (or TTT) is an NFL Next Gen statistic that measures the average time from snapping of the ball to release (excludes sacks).  This is measured with sensors on the ball and on players...hoping this will lead to more precise measurements for contesting downs instead of two guys running around with two inverted exclamation points chained together.  But, I digress.

Crunch Time

We will look the total number of offensive plays for each team through Week 5 divided by their aggregate number of sacks and QB Hits given up by their Offensive Line. I've previously shown there is a positive correlation between the number of wins for a team and the number of QB Hits and Sacks a team's defense lays on an opposing QB  (please see the original article HERE).

The table is sorted by Time to Throw (TTT) with Minnesota QB Cousins taking the most time on average to throw (3.07 seconds, compared to the average of 2.73 seconds).  On the other side of the spectrum, SF QB Garoppalo had the quickest release, getting rid of the ball in 2.45 seconds on average.

So what does this mean?  I've tried to place it into context here by giving each measure a score based on the typical school grading system with 75% equating to the survey average.  The top performer was given 100% and all other grades were based on their relationship to the top team and the mean.

Then, I subtracted the TTT score from the QB Contact Score to get the Difference (Diff) between the two.

Recall the color key:

Sorted by "Diff", we notice the following:

• San Francisco has the largest differential between TTT and QB Contact at -42.9%.  So, while the QB has the third lowest chance of being sacked or hit, he gets the ball out quicker than anyone in the league.  So, is he hit so infrequently because of his line's stellar protection? Or is it he gets the ball out because the first read is always "open" (or he forces it in).  
• SF "Jumps the Mean" in that it has one measure above the mean and another below.   Half of the teams fall in this category (8 above the mean, 8 below) where their extreme measures need further examination.
• IND is the first team to have both measures on the same side of the mean meaning Brissett has not been knocked down a lot and also can extend plays or sit in the pocket behind his OL's protection evidenced by his above average TTT.
• Pittsburgh's rating is based on Rudolph's measures and he clearly benefits from a stellar OL since he is hit/sacked the least has time to throw within 1 standard deviation of the mean. 

Looking further down the table as the number gets positive, the TTT scores are higher than QB Contact ratings giving us positive 'Diff".

• Minnesota's Cousins has the most time to throw AND doesn't get hit a whole lot since his OL's rate of QB Hits+Sacks/Total Plays is over 1 Standard deviation from the mean. 
• The first team to "Jump the Mean" on this side is Cleveland:  Mayfield has a lot of time to throw but he is hit a lot...Is this indicative of "guts" to hang in the pocket and let plays develop, or is he slow to process what he sees?  Smarter guys than me need to get on this and explain.
• Although NY Jets' Falk had Crazy Glue on his hand last week and couldn't get rid of the ball, on plays where he did not get sacked his TTT was below the mean...he had no issue there.  If his coaching staff had worked with him on those plays that lead to sacks, recognizing it was due to his uncertainty on key plays, they might not have cut him.

Blutarsky or 0.0 - Both KC and ARI hover around the 0% differential with KC 1 above on TTT and QBH/Sack rate and ARI one below. 

Conclusion 

Any conclusion, to me, is inconclusive in terms of establishing any trends.  Brady gets the ball out quickly (2.56 seconds) but Flacco has the same TTT.  Are they equal QBs?  That would be a stretch.  Also, Dalton's release is even quicker than Brady but do you think the Patriots are looking to swap QBs with the Bengals?  And what about  Aaron Rogers?  He gets the ball out a lot later than Brady, but they are in the same range when it comes to QB Contact.
If anything can be gathered, I think it is understanding that if your OL does not give up a lot of hits/sacks but your QB is getting the ball out quickly, is that what you want? Should your coaches be asking if the QB is going through his progressions or does he not understand the opposition's defense and just goes to his first option?
It will be interesting to see how these numbers shift as the season progresses.

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What NFL Draft round provides the best value for EDGE rushers?  Check it out right here!

Week 6 Top College Football Wide Receivers by ROI

"Return on Investment" helps screen out draft eligible receivers who might otherwise fly under the radar.  To learn more check out the initial ROI article for the 2019 season here .

Several teams had bye weeks so let's see how the Top 20 FBS looks:

"DNR-R" = Did Not Qualify due to total receptions being below threshold.  "DNQ-Y" = Did Not Qualify due to not in the top 150 in total receiving yards.  "< Top 20" = ROI was not in the Top 20"

Notes

• Clemson's Tee Higgins had the week off and stayed in the top spot.
• Okie State's Tylan Wallace fell 15 spots despite having 85 yards vs Texas Tech, however, they came on 11 receptions.
• And then there were three - Over the last two weeks, the Top 5 was dominated by receivers whose names began with the letter "T".  AGG of LIberty crashed the party last week and now it's Binjimen Victor, the 6'4" Ohio State WR who debuts at number 5 to break up the "Terrible T's".
• Finally out of Hockenson and Fant's shadows, Iowa's Ihmir Smith-Marsette debuts at #13.  He adds stellar return skills to the mix having been Big Ten Return Specialist of the Year.
• Redshirt Junior Scotty Washington comes from an athletic family  (his dad played forward at St. Francis in the 80's).  At 6'5" 225lbs, he is rebounding from a shoulder injury in 2018 and leading the Demon Deacons in YPR and touchdowns.
• LSU and dynamic wide receivers go hand in hand so Ja'Marr Chase deserves a  closer look. An all-state receiver in Louisana who was also state long jump champ, so it will be interesting to see what this true sophomore puts together this season with QB Joe Burrow under center.
• Kent State has secretly been developing solid receivers and Isaiah McKoy could be one to get recognition on a future draft day.  The true sophomore had a nice 4/85/1 day against Auburn and is averaging 14.3 YPC.

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Look for the Week 7 update in this space this time next week.  Until then, check out how my NFL Power Ratings, right here!

Week 6 NFL Picks - Week 5 Review

Every Day, In Every Way, I'm Getting Better and Better

Cult mantra aside, thanks for checking out the against the spread picks for Week 6.  The method is all quantitative, using strength of schedule calculations and a "Chump Rating" to include the aggregate competitive level for each team. in the formula. First, let's recap last week (you can check the receipts, here):

• Won 9 out of 15 for 60% including these underdogs winning straight up
• Indy over KC
• Seattle over the LA Rams
• GB over the Cowboys.

Week 6 - For entertainment purposes only; please, no wagering.

Green indicates level oft confidence in picks (10 being highest, 1 being lowest)

So far, running 50-50 on my 6 confidence picks over the first two weeks of the season.  

Check back next week to see how I did.

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Haven't Called Me an Idiot Yet? 

What are you waiting for?  Check out my Week 5 NFL Power Rankings here!

NEW FEATURE! Week 5 NFL Power Ranking -UPDATED 10/12/19

That's How the Numbers Go...

Like I have nothing else to do, I went ahead and calculated NFL team power rankings through Week 5.
UPDATE: @Brianslionsblog (Twitter) pointed out the % for DET (and also ARI) does not consider the tie.  After further deliberation, I've decided ties suck and % represents the # of games won.  Since SoS considers opponents' strength, that is a better indicator for this analysis than losses. 

Overview:  The table above is based on wins and considers the aggregate performance of each team's opposition for 2019 to date to include a "strength of schedule" component.


Here is how my rankings compared to an aggregate of NFL.com, USA Today, Sports Illustrated and CBS Sports online rankings.

Notes:

• Always contrarian, my #1 team (SF) did not align with the experts choice (NE). 
• The Niners have just played a tougher schedule to date; other than BUF, NE played 4 teams that could muster just 1 win between them.
• Counting anything within 1 level up or down as a "hit", the expert rankings agreed with me on 14 teams.  And we had the same ranking on CHI (#14), CLE (#21) and ARI (#32).
•  The most divergent selections were:
1. OAK who I had listed at 8 is 18th for the experts.  This despite pulling off a 3-2 record facing 4 teams the experts placed in their Top 14.
2. PHI at #15, when the experts have them at #8.  They played a fairly soft schedule and did not put up points against a slate of teams that, on the whole, were not very competitive in their games.
3. DAL who I have at #17, evidently too low for the experts who have the Cowboys at an average of #11 who I dinged for not showing up as well vs. top tier talent (with losses to NO and GB) as they did vs. 3 teams with just 2 total wins between them.

Look for the Week 6 update in this space this time next week.  Until then, check out how Quarterback Aggressiveness impacts your team's win-loss total, right here!

Top 20 College Football Wide Receivers by "ROI" Efficiency through Week 5 ending 9/28/19

"Return on Investment" helps screen out draft eligible receivers who might otherwise fly under the radar.  To learn more check out the initial ROI article for the 2019 season here

No Change at the Top

"DNQ-R" - Did Not Qualify because reception total was not within 1 SD of the mean.

"DNQ-Y" - Did Not Qualify because was not in the top 150 in reception yards. 

Notes:

• Top T - Just like last week, The Killer T's, players with the letter "T" in their names, dominated the top 5 with Tee Higgins of Clemson staying put at #1.  Versus Georgia Tech, he put 99 yards on 4 receptions which represented 100% efficiency for the week.  Not a bad way to stay on top.
• Also staying put were Tylan Wallace of Okie State (#4) and Antwan Davis of Ball St. 
• Killer T, Down! - Trishton Jackson at 'Cuse killed my alliterative dreams for the Top 5 falling from #3 to #11.  The 2017 Michigan State transfer has had a quiet college career until this year.  Despite pedestrian stat line of 2/16/0 vs. Clemson, he had a nice game vs. Maryland (7/157/2) and looks to prove himself in upcoming contests including the season finale against currently undefeated Wake Forest.   
• Pulled Out the Ruggs - Yeah, lame pun, but "Trey" Ruggs dropped from 8 to 16 on our list after going 1/11/0 vs. Ole Miss when the team put up 418 yards on 26 receptions meaning Hank's Week 4 ROI was around negative 50%.  That will put a hurting on ya.  Definitely expect him to get back on track when the Tide rolls into College Station to take on # 25 Texas A&M.
• Senior Most - Underclassmen are can be unpredictable in terms of declaring for the NFL draft and we include all classes for the first few Top 20 lists, but we know seniors will be looking to improve their draft standing.  Liberty's Antonio Gandy-Golden is killing it in terms of efficiency.  Competition will be the biggest question, with his toughest challenge being against Syracuse though he performed for 6/119/0.  Circle November 23rd on your calendar because he will be going up against UVA and potential early draft CB Bryce Hall. 

Welcome to the Party, Pal!  Here are some newcomers to the list. 

• Frosh Hop - What a way to start for 6'3" Central Michigan redshirt freshman Tyrone Scott?  He didn't qualify for the list last week due to the "Sammie Coates Rule" for calculating ROI, but he just cleared the bar this week to debut in the second slot. 
• Hale, Donovan! - Expected to see my favorite Hoosier Nick Westbrook make the list but he's been eclipsed by former Florida HS dual-threat QB Hale, who was also a McDonald's All-American in b-ball. Despite a fairly tame stat line vs. OSU (join the club), he has a Big 10 schedule to gnaw on and is in prime position to get noticed. 
• Nittney Lion Legacy- Prior to attending football factory IMG Academy KJ Hamler attended the same high school as Allen Robinson.  Entering his redshirt Sophomore year, the 5'9" Hamler leads the team in receptions, reception yards, reception TDs AND handles return duties. They go to one of the self-proclaimed "DBU"s when they visit THE Ohio State University on November 23rd.  Circle that date again. 
• Lamb Not Chopped - Oklahoma Sooner Ceedee Lamb was in great shape to make the list last week but he just missed the required number of receptions to qualify (see Ty Scott, above).  His production has been erratic over the first 3 games going 2/46/1/, 6/144/1 then 1/39/1 before going 7/185/3 vs. Texas Tech to get on the map.  
• S'Cuse me While I Whip This Out - Second Orangeman in the top 25, however, Taj Harris is a true sophomore so he will be one to watch for in the future.  Already having set school freshman receiving records, this former HS QB (you know that is a big plus for me) is second only to Jackson (above) in receptions and rec yards. 
• Hope He Loves the Cold - Minnesota's junior WR Rashod Bateman was an all-state athlete...out of Georgia!  They must have made him an offer he couldn't refuse to move up to the tundra and it seems to have worked out.  He started every game as a freshman and is leading brand name Tyler Johnson in reception yards so far.  A team captain, it will be interesting to see what Bateman will do when declaration day for the NFL draft comes around especially if they end up facing OSU in the Big 10 title game.  

Touchdown Kings

Here are the guys who generate TDs at the quickest rates (Interestingly, there are a lot more draft-eligible players than in the ROI list). 

FCS Prospects

FBS is not the only Division I operation, you know, so I'm provided the top 10 ROI receivers so far through 9/29/19.

Notes:

• Maine's Earnest Edwards (5'10", 180)  is highly decorated at the HS and college levels.  As a return specialist, he already has 2 kickoff returns so far in 2019.
• Wagner's Josh DeCambre (6'4", weight unlisted) is off to a productive year against FBS opposition going 8/124/1 against Florida Atlantic. 
• Isaiah Weston was all-state in his native Minnesota winning District MVP on the way to becoming state champion and ended up going to the University of Northern Iowa...there has to be a story here.  Until we find that out, know he was a Freshman All-American in 2017 before missing all of 2018 (dude is quite the enigma).  Here is your first "Circle the Date" FCS game when UNI takes on perennial powerhouse North Dakota State October 12th.
• SE Louisiana's Austin Mitchell has that NFL access I love since he is the nephew of NFL great Brian Mitchell.  Dude has 384 yards on 19 receptions going over 20 YPR!  Add his 4 TDs including and contributions as a punt returner and we will be keeping tabs on #81.
• Morgan State Senior Manassah Bailey has an 2019 statline of 15/325/4 with standout performances vs. FBS Army-West Point with 6/121/2 and going 4/172/1 vs. FCS elite program James Madison. 

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Week 5 Picks - Don't Say I Didn't Warn You

Not Quite Throwing Darts at a Board...But Close

The experiment began last week and it didn't start off very well:

• 3 out of 8
• 1 out of 2 on straight up picks
• Two injuries to starting QBs in critical games I lost where I was relying on poor QB play to provide lots of turnovers.

The methodology was tightened up so let's see what this week brings.  On the left is the contest and on the right is the selection.  I've added a confidence indicator to reflect how strong each pick is on a scale of 1 -10.

The numbers below are totally for research and entertainment purposes only.  Based on last week's results, they are not even that entertaining... 



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How aggressive is your favorite team's QB?  How does his willingness to take chances impact winning?  Check out my analysis here!