Under the Microscope - Top 10 QBs based on Passing Metrics

So Many QBs, So Little Time

With the season winding down, the reality of the 2018 NFL Player Draft is rapidly slapping its fans in the face. As players show us who they are, the season long debate will rage on as it has in years past:  Who are the "franchise" quarterbacks in this draft?   

I have no idea. 

But one thing I can do is share some of the preliminary analysis I've done to sift through all the noise to zero in on additional prospects to consider.  Whomever your "Big Three" are, they will certainly be picked apart like a turkey dinner at the Klumps.  But beyond them, there are, by my reckoning, at least 54 QBs who are either seniors or who media outlets expect to declare for the draft.  That number does not include all draft eligible players in FBS or senior QBs in any of the other NCAA divisions!      

To be sure, inclusion in the list to follow is not indication of a favorable opinion of any particular QB prospect listed, but simply shows that, based on certain criteria, a QB jumps to the front of the line in terms of earning a much closer look.

Dat's How Da Numbaz Go...

QBs were ranked based on the following:

• Comp % - Pass Completion percentage (Completions to Total Attempts)
• TD:INT - Touchdown to Interception ratio
• ATT:TD - Attempts to Touchdown ratio
• INC INT % - Interceptions to Total Incomplete Pass percentage
• Yds/Comp - Yards per completion
• Rank indicates where the player is ranked compared to other draft eligible QBs for this survey.
• Overall Rank indicates player position relative to all 129 QBs in the statistical analysis. 

• I've already started watching Logan Woodside and I have no idea how the kid does it. The height will be scrutinized until he gets officially measured but he knows how to play the game.
• The first 5 on the list are listed on their school's website (hardly official) at no taller than 6'2". Mason Rudolph is the only member of the Top 10 taller than 6'3".
• I've also started looking at Andrew Ford, a tough 2x All-State (PA) player in HS who was the 2013 Gatorade Player of the year in his state.  Started at VA Tech, went on to Lackawanna JUCO before settling at UMass. 
• If the measurements hold up at the combine, Baker Mayfield  is actually is more massive than Barrett or Rudolph based on weight/height.  
• Do yourself a favor and, before you look at John Wolford's game videos, just watch a couple of his interviews.  He appears really focused and has a quiet cool about him.  Limited viewing so far is very, very positive. 

The Elephant in the Room 

OK, you want to know about the other big names, how did they rank out on this list?

• Josh Rosen - UCLA ended up #27 on the list and #46 out of all 129 starting QBs with significant time this year. 
• Sam Darnold of USC - #31 on the list and #58 overall.
• Lamar Jackson of Louisville placed #19 on the list and #30 overall.
• Josh Allen of Wyoming placed at QB39 and overall, #78.

Obviously, these ratings are not meaningful in and of themselves in terms of selecting a solid quarterback based on these metrics alone.  However I believe it has successfully separated some prospects who, based on their metrics, warrant a closer look. 

Superlatives

Completion Percentage: Highest - Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma 71.7%;  Lowest - Kwadra Griggs, Southern Miss. at 52.4%. (Average was 60.0%.)

TD:INT Ratio:  Highest:  Logan Woodside: 9.50 (19 TDs vs 2 INTs); Lowest - Darell Garretson, Oregon State at 0.33 (1 TD vs 3 INTs).  (Average was 2.67.)

ATT:TD Ratio: Highest - Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma scores a TD ever 9.7 passing attempts;  Lowest - Darell Garretson, Oregon State  1 TD every 136.0 attempts.  (Average was 22.3.)

INC INT %: Lowest - Marcus McMaryion, Fresno State only 1.6% of his Incomplete Passes were INTs;   Highest  Ken Postma, Houston had 10.7% of his incomplete passes end up as INTs. (Average was 6.27%)

Yards/Completion:  Highest - Jesse Ertz, Kansas State had an average of 16.91 yards per completion;  Lowest - Kent Myers, Utah State had an average of 10.03 yards per completion. (Average was 12.52.)

We will revisit this exercise at the end of the regular season to consider any other players who merit review who might otherwise have been missed without screening metrics. 

                                      

Shameless Self-Promotion!

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Even More Shameless!!!

Gearing up for the 2nd DraftTwitter NFL Draft Top 100 and I need your feedback on the top 100 prospects, the only list that is created by amateur (and some professional) scouts like you!  And I'd love you to submit a ballot.  Check out last year's here.  Stay tuned for more info coming over the next few weeks.