The Internet Never Forgets!
Others may put out their NFL Draft picks and hope no one ever revisits, but when that body known as "DraftTwitter" puts it on the line, we go back and validate.
The "DraftTwitter Top 100"
On April 23, 2017, a group of NFL amateur, semi-pro and pro scouts participated in an effort to allow all the talking heads in the Twitterverse to finally have a venue for showing the world how smart they all are. That effort was named the "DraftTwitter Top 100" and the results can be found here.
Over 20 brave souls worked on their own respective ranking of the Top 100 NFL Draft prospect (not a mock draft, that is). From Bowl season, to senior showcase games, to the NFL Combine to actual draft day, our scout team stayed connected to discuss, debate and, finally, contribute their ballots which were used to generate this list. Our goal is for someday the DraftTwitter 100 to be the NFL Draft community equivalent of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
A Looooong Way to Go
The conventional wisdom dictates no draft can be reliably graded until 3 years have passed. DraftTwitter is neither conventional nor wise and so we have ranked each contributors' Top 25 picks (which were their most confident picks) based on the following:
- Aggregate Start Percentage - This space has previously argued the best way to measure and compare players across all positions without attempting the futile task of assigning values (as the basis of any system would be largely subjective) is by starts. The coach's only keep their jobs by winning and so, they most naturally will play only those who they believe will give them the best chance to win. Thus, if a player has more starts as a rookie, that implies they are the best option for the team to win. The table below illustrates the average number of starts per position for the 2017 draft class:
- Players on Injured Reserve were NOT included in the above calculation nor were QBs who sat behind starters (just Mahomes). Players who were cut were included at "0%"
- Inside Linebackers (2 in the DraftTwitter 100) played in an average of 6.5 games and started in each one for a perfect Start Percentage of 100%.
- The nine Defensive Ends who saw action in an average of 8.9 games only started 1.4 of them for the low end of the Start Percentage range of just 20%. Granted DEs rotate, but the group average of 2.2 sacks will likely also impact playing minutes.
- The WR pool was not helped by injuries as the top 3 picks at this position (Corey Davis, Mike Williams and John Ross) each missed a significant number of games.
- Graded Starts - The second category for analysis awarded players points based on where each DraftTwitter scout ranked them in the Top 25 adjusted by their start percentage as a way to ding you for overvaluing a player. The maximum score was 325 points.
- Each DraftTwitter scout was slotted based on their average ranking based on the above.
DraftTwitter vs The 4 Letter Network's "Other Guy"
We splurged for the Insider feature for a certain "4 Letter Network" and tracked the picks of one of their NFL Draft Analysts (there are two: one has been a pioneer in professional scouting for decades and the Other Guy has not). His results are compared along with the other contributing scouts identified here:
Here is the list:
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| The tracking number in front of each scout's name is used for administrative purposes and has no other meaning. |
The second to last column provides the overall rank and the final column Variance denotes the average number of picks each player selection was compared to the DraftTwitter Aggregate Ranking for each player were compared to the Draft Twitter 100 (the higher the number, the more in line with the average pick).
Takeaways
- Kudos to ZoneReads who leads the pack through 11 games.
- THIS IS VERY EARLY! Things will look very different after 48 games are played. These rookies are still getting used being in the work force (my first job after school didn't require me to be mercilessly criticized by complete strangers who have never, ever done my job), moving to a strange new city and a getting accustom to a whole new team (with all that entails). They will need time to figure it all out. This list will no doubt change bigly over the 3 year period from the 2017 draft date and this space will do its best to keep you updated periodically on player progress through the metrics we've laid out above. That being said, Overall Rankings are, at this point, no indication of the scouts' ability. With injuries and mix of player positions having to work their way up, there should be no gloating or disappointment for anyone.
- That being said, do you see how the DraftTwitter Top 25 is just kicking the crap out of 4 Letter Network's Other Guy?
We Need YOU to Build the DraftTwitter Top 100 project
Not only will we continue to provide updates to the last draft class as we move toward their 3 year draft anniversary, we need YOU to submit a DraftTwitter 100 ballot so that we can reach the goal of 100 independent scout contributors.
If you love the NFL Player Draft and are tired of trying to talk football with others who may not be as passionate as you are (I think we've all been down that road), you are definitely invited to take a peak at becoming a contributor for the 2018 DraftTwitter Top 100. If interested in being contacted after Bowl Season to contribute no more than 2 ballots using our easy online template, please shoot an email to Boombearjr@gmail.com.
Shameless Self-Promotion!
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