Cover Men
Cornerback is one of the most impactful positions on a football field. A great one can eliminate the opponent's best receiving weapon and a bad one is a liability that can throw the entire defense into chaos. For the 2020 NFL season, I will update three metrics I find interesting in looking at CB play:
- Total Targets/Total Snaps ("Attack Ratio") - The lower the better.
- Total Yards Against/Total Snaps ("Bleed Ratio") - The lower the better.
- Total Interceptions/Total Touchdowns ("Burn Ratio") - The higher the better.
Each metric is stated as a Z-score (# of standard deviations from the mean) which is then averaged for a final score. The player data is aggregated on a team basis.
2019 Cornerback Statistics
The above reflects the 2019 results for starting CBs. Their performances were aggregated by team to provide baseline metrics for comparison to 2020.
Notes:
- There are only 31 CB units in the table above because none of the starting CBs for MIN had material statistics in 2019.
- The 2019 numbers reflect the individual numbers of CBs on the 2020 squads for each team.
- It is said the NFL is a parity league and the numbers show that is the case with only one team's CBs showing performance beyond one standard deviation above the mean (PIT).
- CAR, while establishing the bottom border, still remained within 1 standard deviation of the mean.
- Attack Ratio
- LAC was #1 in terms of ATTACK ratio meaning teams targeted their CBs the fewest times per snap.
- PHI was dead last and anyone watching knows they had not a lot of household names on the corners.
- Bleed Ratio
- PIT was #1 as their CBs allowed the fewest yards per snap in 2019.
- CAR has a rough time of it giving up the most yards per snap.
- Burn Ratio
- NWE not only topped the list but they had the highest Z-Score in any of the three categories but having the highest TD to INT rate.
- ATL was pretty deficient in this category with the worst Z-Score of any team in any category.
2020 Season
I will update the week to week numbers related to the three metrics (Attack, Bleed and Burn ratios) and compare them to each team's 2019 numbers (above).
Since we only have Week 1 data, we will start with the "Bleed Ratio" Total Yards/Total Snaps compared to 2019 and bring in the other metrics in the coming weeks as we get more data.
Blue lines represent 2019 performance and Orange, Week 1 of the 2020 season.
- Better than Expected (Positive Orange line higher than Blue line)- BUF, DEN and TEN
- Clearly Worse than Expected (Negative Orange line lower then positive Blue line) - JAX, KC, LVR and PIT
- Everyone else is not far off expectations with the exception of LAC and NWE who are both on the right side of the line but not show a drop off from last season. But we have only one game under our belts.
Here's the NFC:
- Better than Expected (Positive Orange line higher than Blue line)- CAR, CHI, DET and NOR.
- Clearly Worse than Expected (Negative Orange line lower then positive Blue line) - LAR and SEA.
- Everyone else is not far off expectations with the exception of ATL which was expected to struggle based on last year but has fared worse than expected in Week 1 and NYG who, while still below the line, are much improved in terms of their Bleed Ratio.
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