The Initial 2017-18 FBS Wide Receiver Return on Investment Efficiency Top 15

Here we go!

Thank you for taking the time to check out the first Return on Investment WR list for the 2017-18 season.  This will be the third year of our list which attempts to normalize statistics across the draft eligible Wide Receivers in college football's FBS division to isolate those displaying exceptional efficiency.  The data is generated using the 4th version of the original model I created, which remains unchanged since the end of last year (so I think we have the spreadsheet the way it needs to be!).  The measure is called Return on Investment.

What is ROI?

Return on Investment for WRs is based on measuring how much better a player is compared to his teammates at producing receptions compared to target opportunities and yards compared to reception opportunities.  The aggregate of these percentages gives us a player’s ROI.  And while one player may be in a run first offense, another in a pass first and another in a balanced system, volume does not benefit the WR in this analysis as all statistics are based on rates.  

There are two components to ROI:

• Raw ROI - Reflects a receiver's efficiency based on contributory receptions and yards.
• QB adjusted ROI - Normalizes Raw ROI to reflect the possible impact of team QB completion percentage on receiver performance. 

The average of these two ratios results in Average ROI which represents how much more production a WR generated compared to what would be expected from his share of opportunities. 

The numbers discussed until after the end of the season will not include the target/reception ratio as target figures are easier to compile at the end of the season than weekly. (I have only so much time...)

This measure is not offered to definitively screen out every future NFL All-Pro.  Simply being on the list or even at the top of the list is no indication of a player's potential as a draft prospect.  ROI is simply the first of several tools used to find players who may have strong traits and skill sets; players who may otherwise be overlooked because the media buzz can only support but a few names.  Again, ROI is the first, not the last step in creating your "Draftable" list.  The follow up to screening out a new prospect using ROI is, of course, additional film study and research. 

For those of you unfamiliar with the ratio and would like to see a working example of the calculation, please read the original article.

Past Top ROI Receivers

Below are a list of prospects who made the final top ROI lists and how where they were taken in the NFL player draft. 

  

2015

Chris Conley - drafted by KC Chiefs

Sammie Coates - drafted by Pittsburgh Steelers

Devin Smith - drafted by NY Jets

Breshad Perriman - drafted by Baltimore Ravens

Cam Worthy UDFA - Baltimore Ravens

John Harris UDFA - Philadephia Eagles

Ian Hamilton (UTEP) -  undrafted

2016

Deangelo Yancey - drafted by GB Packers

Josh Reynolds - drafted by LA Rams

Josh Malone - drafted by Cincinnati Bengals

Ardarius Stewart - drafted by NY Jets

Amba Etta-Tawo - UDFA Jacksonville Jaguars

Marcus Kemp - UDFA KC Chiefs

Austin Carr - UDFA NE Patriots

Keelan Cole - UDFA Jacksonville Jaguars

Chance Allen (Houston) Undrafted

Sebastian Smith (Ohio) Undrafted

ROI will be judge solely on how many of the top ROI guys you may never have heard of are on NFL squads.  If you are like, "Who is Deangelo Yancey?" my response will be the the guy drafted by the Packers.  Some names you may know, but if there are some you don't, maybe you should check out this column every week to stay on top of the leading ROI wide receivers.

Survey 1 (Week 3 2017)

The first survey analyzes the current season through week 3:

The table above is based on the NCAA FBS statistical website .  Qualifying receivers are draft eligible and had at least 10 receptions through the measuring period.

Here some thoughts on a few of the Top 20 WRs through Week 3:

• #1 Overall Datrin Guyton, Bowling Green State University 17.5% of team's receptions for 34.4% of team's receiving yards for an average ROI of 105.4%.  His efficiency is 400% better than the currrent average FBS receiver ROI of 26.4%. Guyton is a transfer from Oregon State.  He was 2nd team All State out of Manor HS (TX) and listed as a Top 100 Player in the state of Texas.  He sat out 2016 to satisfy that insane transfer rul e and is now getting a chance to show out.  Fun Fact:  He has the craziest HS recruit video music I've heard in a long time.  It's like Soundcloud Hip Hop meets 1970's Glam music. 
• #2 Overall DeAndre McNeal, Florida Atlantic University Average ROI of 93.2%, 354% more efficient than average.  Former Longhorn detoured though JUCO; ended up winning a national championship with Fullerton CC (CA). In High School he played QB, RB, WR, LB and DB.  I think he even snapped the ball to himself.  So far in 3 games at FAU he's lead in receiving yards each game. Which is nice.   His promo video (which is cuts of him mainly at WR) has more customary music but here's a news piece about him  busting onto the scene during FAU camp.  Coach Kiffin makes a cameo and by the looks of him, he seems to really appreciate all the great Florida restaurants about town.
• #6 Overall Steven Simms Jr. Kansas University Average ROI 68.7%, 261% more efficient than average.  A kid from Houston, a hot bed of football recruiting, who was a finalist for the Houston Touchdown Club somehow ends up in ..Kansas?  Have not yet looked into his story but he is solid at the college ranks.     
• #7 Overall Chris Platt, Baylor University Average ROI of 66.5% 252% more efficient than average.  Chris Platt has not only proven that he is a football guy who runs track (and not the other way around) but he has done the nearly impossible - he has me excited about a Baylor WR prospect.  The first play of his HS promo video was all I needed.  His willingness to hanging in through the rough road in Waco shows a lot about his loyalty and perseverance. 
• #15 Overall Vic Wharton III, Cal-Berkeley Average ROI 48.4%,  183% more efficient than average.  I can't tell you much about him other than he transferred from Tennessee, played about 6 different positions in HS, showing out All-State (TN) AND he has the Avatar of highlight reels.  I'm sure they spent 1,000 hours producing and editing this cinematic tour de force.  The eagle screeches are my favorite.  Oh, and he can ball out as well. 
• #20 Overall Trent Sherfield, Vanderbilt University 39.8%, 151% more efficient than average.  He has the advantage of being a former All-State QB (IL) and having been a 3 sport athlete in high school, both huge bonuses for me.  Dude got playing time his freshman year, in his sophomore year, he was the top receiving threat.  He knows how to get separation and understands every facet of the game.  Keep an eye out for him. 

ROI Game of the Week:  Texas Tech at Houston Not only does this game have two of my Pre-Season Breakout candidates TTU's Keke "Clean" Coutee and Houston's Steven Dunbar, but also one of my favorite 'non-big 3 QBs" Nic Shimonek who will face a big test vs an Ed Oliver led Houston defense.  Both teams have postponed games due to Hurricane Harvey so, despite the tough past few weeks, they should have fresh legs.  The over/under on this game is 71 so let the fireworks begin!

Looking forward to updating this list every week to discuss new names.  

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NFL Draft 2000-2014 - QB Values Part I The Best

What Do We Mean By "Value"?

This space is dedicated to value, that is, find out how to get more with less.  Every football season, we are obsessed with arguing about QBs.  In college and the pro level, the question, "Who is number one?" is tossed around online, on television and radio and in bars across America.    But the criteria used to determine "best" is not easy to pinpoint.  Stats, records, championships, etc can be used alone or in combination to prove ones' point as to the superiority of QB X to QB Y.  But in a value based world, how does one assess "Best" or "Worst" in this discussion?

It's All About the Cost

Value in this space is tied to cost and we typically use a combination of factors to measure players, but it isn't always simply a matter of dollars and sense.  In determining who the best draft value QBs have been since 2000, we looked at the following:

• Rookie Contract Value based on Draft Position - The ultimate measure in perceived value is one's draft position.  Despite the experts' opinions, all it takes is one GM to take a player who may not have been regarded very highly to pick him higher than projected to instantly increase that player's value.  And, of course, in concert, the expectations of his performance.  No one expects the 6th round draft pick to perform at the same level as the 1st rounder.  So, we start with a contract value for each player based on their actual draft position compared to the 2017 rookie contract scale.  Subsequent contracts are ignored since to earn an additional contract, a player must have proved his worth and so the value is more in line with reality as opposed to the initial "pre-draft" perception of the player. 
• Average Number of Starts per Season - The denominator of our ratio is the average number of starts a QB had per season he played.  Starts seemed like a reasonable criteria since a player's value is wholly predicated on his ability to help his team.  If he is on the field, his coaching staff values him as the best option for the team to win.  The natural inclination might be to use total starts as a factor, however, when we look at the broad picture, we could have a journeyman back up with 32 career starts over 8 years comparing to a solid starter who had 32 starts over a 2 year career shortened by injury.  The former averaged 4 starts a year while the latter, 16 starts.  Clearly, the player with the shorter career was more highly valued. 

Cost per Start

From the above, we determine the value of the player by dividing 2017 Rookie Contract Value based on his own draft position by the average number of starts per season over his playing career (number of starts divided by seasons active in the league).  The player's Cost per Start attempts to validate in clear numbers if a guy was simply overvalued based on his performance over his career.  Here is the link to the full data table.  

Best Value Picks - Top 5

1. Tom Brady 6th Round, Pick, # 199- Cost per Start:  $173,424    You don't have to be an NFL historian or salary cap guru to be able to guess who is the most valuable QB since 2000.  His poor combine and draft position are almost as legendary as his on field dominance. A hero to many, nemesis to others but respected by nearly all, Tom will likely be known as the greatest ever to play the game.  Sixth round draft pick Brady is a 5 time Super Bowl Champion (and some don't think he's finished yet), was MVP for 4 of  those games, was a 2 time league MVP and 12x All Pro. And that's just scratching the surface of his many achievements.   
2. Russell Wilson - 3rd Round,  Pick, #75 Cost per Start:  $219,860 I remember watching an NC State game back in the late 2000's and some short guy kept throwing the ball all over the field, ringing up completions and touchdowns.  I thought, "Who is this guy?"  That was Russell Wilson who, after a change of heart during a stint with the Colorado Rockies, returned to college ball and Wisconsin.  He promptly commenced to tear stuff up while a Badger, as well.  "Undersized", he took on the draft universe and lasted until the 3rd round while can't miss Man Mountains like Brandon Weeden and Brock Osweiler were taking ahead of him.  Never one to back down, Wilson went on to become rookie of the year and a champion by leading his Seahawks to victory in Super Bowl 48. 
3. Marc Bulger - 6th Round, Pick #168 Cost per Start:  $223,468  Bulger, after not making it out of training camp with the Saints, the team that drafted him, latched on with the Falcons' practice squad before moving over the the Rams. .After Kurt Warner was released, Bulger was given the reins to the "Greatest Show on Turf".  While he never attained the success of the Warner led "Show" being, himself, beset with injuries, Bulger started 95 games in his career, being twice named an All-Pro and leading the Rams to the Wild Card playoff game in 2006.  Not much exciting on Bulger, but here's a little something that, while obviously staged, was kinda cool. 
4. Ryan Fitzpatrick - 7th Round, #250 Cost per Start:  $254,924  Sure, there have been plenty of Crimson players in the NFL, but they got far more marketing bang for their buck out of Fitz whose middle name may as well have been "Harvard Alum".  Of his measurables at the 2005 NLF Player Combine, the one that generated the most buzz was his near perfect Wonderlich score of 48 (out of 50).  Despite senior year stats of 1,986 yards, 13 TD passes and 6 INTs, the Shield evidently figured Fitz would simply be able to outsmart the competition at the next level and he was drafted by the Rams.  With the Rams he would earn a starting job filling in for an injured Jamie Martin.  Traded to the Bengals, he started when Carson Palmer went down with an injury.  Moving on to the Bills, he was next man up when Trent Edward got hurt. Eventually, Fitz latched on with the Titans and was at the ready when Jake Locker was felled with...an injury?  Hmm.  Gotta be a coincidence.  When he moved over the the Texans roster, Fitz was named starter outright but was replaced by his backup Ryan Mallett...but Fitz took the helm when Mallett was felled by a torn pec.  Jumping over to the Jets, Ryan was set to back up Geno Smith who (you'll never guess...) was injured in a legendary altercation with teammate IK Enemkpali so, Ryan, aka Damien from The Omen, became the starter. Ryan's performance has not been noteworthy  - he has 166 career TDs to 133 INTs for a ratio of 1.29x (compare to ratios of Tom Brady of 3.02x, Colin Kaepernick of 2.40x or Philip Rivers of 2.01x ), but he is always in the right place at the right time and that seems to have allowed him to build value over time. He is now signed with the Buccaneers.  Mr. Krabbs had better watch his back. 
5. Kyle Orton - 4th Round, #106 Cost per Start:  $348,507 Considered by some the #2 QB prospect out of high school, Orton rewrote the record books at Purdue and was rewarded by being drafted by the Bears in 2005 to help return that team to football relevance.  That year, despite Orton owning the lowest QB rating over the 15 games he started, the Bears made the playoffs.  Clearly, success in the win column does not insure a starting gig because he bounced around the Bears' depth chart a couple more years battling such names as Rex Grossman, Chad Hutchinson and Chris Leak. Finally, despite going 21-12 in games he started, the Bear traded him in the deal that brought Jake Cutler to Chicago. From there, Orton accumulated 82 starts over 9 years and earned the nickname "Uncle Rico".

These QBs round out the Top 10:

6.  David Garrard 

7.  Matt Cassell

8.  Kurt Cousins

9.  Derek Carr

10.  Andy Dalton

That is all for now. Please watch this space for Part II - The Bottom 5.

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Under the Radar QBs

As a Jets fan (no pun intended), I hear a lot of folks talking about the crop of draft eligible QBs in College Football today.  This year's "Big Three", Darnold, Rosen and Allen will likely be high draft picks next year but, given that this space is dedicated to efficiency and value, we rather discuss our  "Potentially Big Three" who are not well known now, but may be once we get to Bowl season.

Tanner Lee - 6'4" 220lbs Nebraska

When looking at QBs for the 2017-18 season, I was especially interested to see who would be taking over for long time Husker Tommy Armstrong.  When I saw Tanner Lee's name on the depth chart I immediately said, "who?" - Lee sat out  the 2016 season after transferring from Tulane in his home state of Louisiana.  A former all-State (Honorable Mention) QB who led his team thrice to the state playoffs, winning the championship his junior year.  On paper, he has two of the three attributes I like most in prospects:  State honors/championship experience and pedigree, given both his father and grandfather were college football players (I cannot confirm he was a multisport athlete, a third positive attribute).  Tulane wasn't exactly a house afire during his tenure at QB but his performance was most likely indicative of his surrounding cast more than his own potential.  Based on one account, there might not have been anything left of him to transfer if he HADN'T left Tulane.
Watching his high school reel, it is clear he understands defense enough to use leverage to his advantage. Checking out his interview during the Husker Spring game...his teammates obviously think highly of him.  That brotherhood translates over onto the field on Saturdays.  He appears to be strong, smart and has been using a lot of advanced on field analysis skills since HS.  I am a huge fan and am going to be watching what he does this year.

Jacob Park 6'4" 205lbs Iowa State

Once upon a time, a kid from a town called Goose Creek, South Carolina picked up a football.  By the time he was wrapping up high school, he had lead his team to the state championship game, had two All-State (first team) honors and was named South Carolina's "Mr. Football".As a senior, he threw for 3,665 yards and 33 TDs...that's one year, folks.  He also found time to letter in basketball (see Bonus QB Attributes, above).   Bama, ND, Tennessee, Auburn, Florida and even Florida State, the team that won the national championship the year he graduated, extended offers. But, he decided to stray not far from home and enroll at the University of Georgia.  He took a redshirt his first year but in 2015,he decide to move on and embark on an odyssey that would land him to transfer to a school without a football team, before eventually being tracked down and recruited by ISU (In this video, Park talks about his relationship with then UGA coach Mike Bobo who left for the HC position at Colorado State, which may have had a hand in Park's decision making). .  Having dusted off the rust, Park split time in 2016 before nailing down the starting QB spot in the second half of the season.
Not many ISU games floating around the internet, so here's some solid HS footage that shows his general understanding of the game.  He has a second chance to make it happen and with stud WR Allen Lazard and beast-like (and former HS QB) RB David Montgomery , I am very excited to see what Park can do.

Richard Lagow 6'6" 240 lbs Indiana

Sloth is a deadly sin and I am guilty of this crime as I should have written this piece before Lagow and Indiana had THE Ohio State University on the ropes for the first half of their game. Had I gotten off my butt and written this article, I would have told you about this kid from Plano High School in an area that is near the epicenter of high school football.  He led his team to the state playoffs and for his efforts, was not widely recruited, ending up at basketball mecca Connecticut.  But in his first year there he transferred to QB friendly Oklahoma State and had to sit out a year.  After a redshirt season there, he ends up at ...Cisco Community College?  Here are the gory details of his wandering.  He went on to produce at CCC to a level worthy of recognition as a top Juco QB (#2 according to the four letter network).
Typically, Boombear flushes a prospect once he gets to his second transfer.  But, naturally, Lagow had one more transfer in him and ended up at Indiana where he has had a chance to be "the guy" unlike at Okie State. When scouting out Indiana WRs Simmie Cobbs and Nick Westbrook,  I got to see a lot of Lagow and found him to have poise, strength (which can support durability) and he seems to have a head for the game.  He put up some big numbers in 2016 and has started 2017 off similarly so last week was no fluke (here he is in 2016 vs. Michigan with its dominant secondary).  He's a big dude with a big arm - we are all about second (and third...and fourth) chances.  We'll see what that means for the Hoosiers this year.

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Who? Potential Breakout WRs for FBS 2017

Death, Taxes and College Football

Of the three things I know will eventually come, I look forward to only one. The 2017 college football season is almost upon us.  Last season we saw possibly one of the "deepest" wide receiver classes in recent memory.  While this year's class is full of potential, the real trick is identifying "under the radar" talent early.  So who are the top potential "Breakout" candidates for the coming season?

How Do You Define "Breakout"?

A breakout player in this case would be (1) eligible for the 2018 NFL Player Draft, (2) collected greater than 40 receptions in the 2016 season (which is within 1 Standard Deviation of the average reception total of the top 150 in terms of receiving yards) and (3) did not lead his team in receiving yards in 2016.  And, of course, player rankings are based on their Return on Investment (ROI) efficiency score using the average of Raw ROI and QB adjusted ROI (a quick and easy way to account for differences in QB quality when you just don't want to sift through hundreds of  game play-by-play pdf documents counting receiver targets (which ain't easy, I assure you).  So, here we go:

5. Steven Dunbar: Houston, Senior 6'3" 202 lbs 51 recs 669 rec yards 5 TDs

Everyone loves a winner and Dunbar's Rummel HS (Metarie, LA) won back to back state titles and also was part of the basketball team that made a run for the state title (love the multi-sport athletes). With that resume, you'd expect to see Dunbar at a more recognizable school but he had made up his mind to attend Houston in his Junior year and the other schools were just out of luck.   Last year at Houston, Dunbar had the benefit of QB Greg Ward Jr, now of the NFL, who had above average accuracy based on his above average completion percentage.  Former 5 star QB Kyle Allen transferred from across the state after an underwhelming (if that's a word) career at Manziel University (aka Texas A&M) where he helped contribute to a putrid passing game that was about 13% less accurate then average (only one other school in this analysis was worse). The return of the entire starting offensive line shouldn't hurt. The return of last year's number 1 WR Linell Bonner III might. If players buy what new coach Longhorn legend Major Applewhite is selling, Dunbar could be the "out of nowhere" guy everyone is talking about come next year's draft.  

4. Jordan Lasley: UCLA, Redshirt Junior 6'1" 201 lbs 41 recs 620 rec yards 5 TDs

SoCal Lasley (Serra High - Gardena, CA) has the envious position of having a chip on his shoulder QB returning to show the world in Josh Rosen, who will have 4 of 5 starting linemen returning. Lasley, himself, took a redshirt his first year and was used sparingly his sophomore year leading up to his breakout 2016 season when he was second in terms of receiving yards and led the team with 5 TD receptions.  Lasley is an honor roll student who can win using his head but also has the confidence and swag required to play the game.  Should be an interesting year for him. Due to Rosen's injury, Lasley had some of the most inconsistent QB play of qualifying WRs for this study (his QBs completion percentage was almost 10% worse than average) so consistency from "The Rosen One" could go a long way for Lasley.

3. Keke Coutee: Texas Tech, Junior 5'11" 173 lbs 55 recs 890 rec yards 7 TDs

Some receivers get a bad rep for avoiding contact...Coutee is not one of them.  But watch his HS highlight reel and you will see that he definitely doesn't like getting his uniform dirty - he doesn't get caught and tackled by defenders until after the 2 minute mark!  "Clean" Coutee had the breakout year he was looking for with over 1,000 all purpose yards.  He is shifty and tenacious but his fortune depends on if the gaping hole left by first round pick Pat Mahomes II can be filled by Iowa transfer Nic Shimonek (the Nic-ster is a former finalist for Texas player of the year in high school so, yeah, there's probably upside).  Clean Coutee was second in team receiving yards only to Jonathon Giles who transferred to LSU (and wanted out so much, apparently, he will sit out a year) so he has that going for him.  Which is good.

2. Cedrick Wilson: Boise State, Senior 6'3" 188 lbs 50 recs 1041 rec yards 10 TDs

Anyone who watches this space knows two things give me great joy in a prospect: (1) Pedigree kids -Cedrick's dad, Cedrick Sr. spent 7 seasons in the NFL, earning a Super Bowl ring with the Steelers in 2005 and  (2) Converted High School QBs - Wilson as an All State (TN) QB having led his White Station (TN) team to the state semifinals as a senior. What other player on the team knows what everyone else is supposed to be doing other than the QB?  With largely unsung WR Thomas Sperbeck graduated, Brett Rypien will be leaning heavily on Wilson as his go to receiver.   Wilson also  had a nose for the goal line  having a Rec/TD ratio of 5.0x, far more productive than the sample average 11.7x (the top ratio was 3.5x, for reference).   One year after transferring from Coffeyville CC (KS), Wilson is the #1 WR and has been elected a team captain.  He exudes leadership and poise. We will see if he can capitalize in this position.

1.  Jamire Jordan:  Fresno State,  Redshirt Sophomore 5'10" 173 45 recs 713 rec yards 2 TDs

After notching a single victory the entire season (against an FCS opponent) Fresno State hired new head coach Jeff Tedford to turn the program around. Receiver and return specialist Jordan ( over 1,000 all purpose yards in 2016) could be a big part of that plan.  Another feather in his cap is Fresno State had the worst QB performance in the survey (greater than 16% worse completion % than average) so it can't get any worse, right?  Jordan was not actively recruited outside of his native West Coast (with some mountain states in the mix) with interest from Washington and Utah.  If Jordan can play with any sort of chip on his shoulder, that couldn't hurt his chance to stand out despite playing for a non-Power 5 school on the West Coast.  Leading receiver KeeSean Johnson is also returning so we will really see how big of a chip Jordan carries on his shoulder.

 

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2017 Pre-Season FBS Wide Receiver Return on Investment Top Ten

2017 NCAA Football Season is Near!

It’s August and the most wonderful time of the year is almost upon up…college football season!  This space continues its mission of analyzing wide receiver efficiency/efficacy through the Return on Investment percentages.  Based on statistics for the 2016-17 FBS season, the 10 players listed below consistently generated the most production from their reception opportunities.

What is Return on Investment?

Return on Investment for WRs is based on measuring how much better a player is than his teammates at producing receptions compared to target opportunities and yards compared to reception opportunities.  The aggregate of these percentages gives us a player’s ROI.  And while one player may be in a run first offense, another in a pass first and another in a balanced system, volume does not benefit the WR in this analysis as all statistics are based on rates.

For more on ROI, please review this article.

Who's Eligible?

To be eligible for this survey, WRs had to have a minimum of 41 receptions (which was the average for the Top 150 receivers based on reception yards, last year) in the 2016-17 season.  Remember, ROI is NOT intended as a ranking systems in itself, rather, it was developed as a screening system to potential isolate potential NFL draft prospects for further analysis and review.  This will be the fourth year of using ROI as a screening metric and the second  consecutive year in using the same exact formula and methodologies, so we can begin to track the successes and (failures) of the system. 

The Top  

1.  Shaedon Meadors Appalachian State 6’2” Senior ROI 38.947%– With 698 yards on 43 receptions, the former member of USA Today’s All USA South Carolina team accounted for 22.8% of his teams total receptions and cranked out 31.6% of App State’s total receiving yards.  He produced 38.947% more yards than his reception distribution, good for the top spot.  Senior QB Taylor Lamb, who has started for the Mountaineers since his true freshman season, is back under center behind a line that returns 3 of 5 starters.   The familiarity should help Meadors remain consistent.  Compared to the average ROI of 18.0% for the top 150 WRs (in terms of Reception yards), Meadors is 117% more efficient than the average WR. 
2. Nick Westbrook Indiana University 6’3 Junior ROI 38.861%– Westbrook was in the top 50 WRs in terms of yardage with 915 yards on 49 receptions.  He represented 19.8% of team receptions and 27.4% of team reception yards for a ROI of 38.861%.  Granted, the team’s 2015 leading receiver Simmie Cobbs missed last year due to injury, but Westbrook, a former high school All State football player who also lettered in track and lacrosse, will look to capitalize on his relationship with returning Sr QB Richard Lagow who will be protected by 3 returning starting offensive linemen.   ROI is 116% above average.
3. Ahmmon Richards University of Miami 6’1” 192 lbs Sophomore ROI 37.094% - This former consensus 4 star HS prospect quietly generated 866 yards (26.4% of team receiving yards) on 46 receptions (19.2% of team receptions).  With Brad Kaaya’s (DET) departure to the NFL, Richards will need to get in synch with whomever earns the job.  The new QB will at least have 4 experienced starters back on the OL who have hopefully jelled as a unit.  ROI is 106% above average.
4.  Cody Thompson University of Toledo 6’2” 205 lbs Senior ROI 37.091% - This former HS QB (who also served as punter) had a solid year with 1,170 yards (29.6%) on 59 receptions (21.6%).  He will be joined by his fellow All MAC receiver Jon’Vea Johnson and returning Sr. QB Logan Woodside (who gets back 3 of 5 starting OL including his Left Tackle and Center) to continue to cause havoc through the league.  I don’t see how Thompson doesn’t continue his onslaught in 2017.   ROI is 106% above average.
5.  James Washington Oklahoma State University 6’0” 205 lbs.  Senior ROI 36.741% - After pulling down 60 catches (23.0%) for 1159 yards (31.4%), what does JW do for an encore?  We shall see.  This former high school All-State selection and state champion was also district MVP in basketball and all league in TENNIS…tennis?  I bet if you put a saddle on him he could show in the Kentucky Derby.  He gets back Top QB conversation gunslinger Mason Rudolph and 3 of 5 returning linemen.  If you don’t love him, take a look at this and tell me you do not love him so we can revoke your human being card. ROI is 104% above average.
6. Demetris Robertson Cal-Berkley 6’0” 190 lbs. Sophomore ROI 36.443% - Gotta be honest.  After Jared Goff (LAR) left for the pros, I sort of forgot about Cal.  Sure, Chad Henson (NYJ) was entertaining but beyond that I would get distracted.  So when Robertson screened out with 50 catches (13.1%) and 767 reception yards (17.8%) I was like, “who?”  A 3 sport high school athlete who was a “Swiss Army Knife”, he’s going to have to rely on his wits out there with no marque replacement for last year’s “name” QB Davis Webb (NYG) with new starting tackles and LG.  ROI is 103% above average.
7. Allenzae Staggers Southern Mississippi 6’1” 190 lbs. Senior ROI 32.399% - Totaling 935 yards (26.5%) on 52 catches (20.0%), Staggers has his work cut out for him.  He loses the Golden Eagles’ all-time leading passer in Nick Mullens (SF) with no apparent heir apparent and the left side of his OL has moved on leaving 2 of last year’s 5 starters.  A former All State multi-sport athlete, if Staggers can continue his productivity under these circumstances, he will definitely improve his overall draft stock.  ROI is 80% above average.
8. Shay Fields University of Colorado 5’11” 175lbs. Senior ROI 31.507% - Although the Buffaloes lost QB Sefo Liufau (TB) to the NFL, his replacement and new current QB Steven Montez filled in for Liufau during his injury plagued season.  So, at least Fields generated some of his 50 catches (19.3%) and 819 yards (25.4%) from his new full time starting QB.  The Buffs bring back the whole starting OL except the RG so, if Montez can stay vertical, it could mean big things for Fields.  ROI is 75% above average. 
9. Jamire Jordan Fresno State University 5’11” 171lbs. Junior ROI 30.126% - Derek Carr’s former Bulldog locker may have been still a bit warm last year when the Bulldogs took a single victory the entire season…against FCS Sacramento State, yet!   New head coach Jeff Tedford will definitely have ideas for improvement and Jordan, who notched 45 catches (21.4%) for 713 yards (27.9%), is a hopeful beneficiary.  In terms of returning starters, Jordan gets back his QB, 4 of 5 Offensive Linemen (including the LT and C) and Tight End. If the blocking gets right, Jordan looks to show improvement. ROI is 68% above average.
10. Tre’Quan Smith University of Central Florida 6’1” 200 Junior ROI 29.699% - Although Smith started playing football relatively late (in his Jr year of high school), he obviously has a natural feel for the game, evidenced by 54 catches (24.8%) for 808 yards (32.1%).  He’s hoping 2^nd year coach and returning starting Sophomore QB Mackenzie Milton can help him improve and place himself in the NFL draft conversation. ROI is 65% above average.

 While crunching the numbers, I noticed a couple of interesting things:

Observations

Bring the Gravy I.V. – Based on simple body density (that is weight in lbs divided by height in inches), the top 10 are not as solid at the average WR for the 2016 player combine (based on their statistics listed on their schools websites):

2016 NFL Player Combine WR Average simple body density : 2.79 lbs/inch

• Nick Westsbrook:  2.87 lbs/inch  (2.7% above average)
• James Washington: 2.85 lbs/inch (+2.0%)
• Cody Thompson:  2.77 lbs/inch (-0.7%)
• Tre’Quan Smith:  2.74 lbs/inch (-1.8%)
• Denetrus Robertson 2.64  lbs/inch (-5.7%)
• Ahmmon Richards 2.63 lbs/inch (-6.1%)
• Allenzae Staggers 2.60 lbs/inch (-7.2%)
• Shay Fields 2.46 lbs/inch (-13.2%)
• Shaedon Meadors 2.43 lbs/inch (-14.7%)
• Jamire Jordan:  2.41 lbs/inch (-15.8%)

In 2016, the average simple body density for the NFL’s top 30 WRs based on reception yards was about 2.89.  Somebody's grandma needs to be on staff at the player's dining hall. 

Touchdown Machines – Based on the qualified WRs in our survey, the following dudes are just TD beasts, crushing the average rate for a score of 11 receptions for 1 TD:

• Dante Pettis University of Washington Senior – A TD every 3.5 receptions.
• Cedrick Wilson Boise State – Rec/TD rate of 5.0
• Jonathan Giles Texas Tech (sitting out this year given LSU transfer) - Rec/TD rate of 5.3
• Shay Fields Rec/TD rate of 5.6
• Jonathan Duhart – Old Dominion Senior Rec/TD rate of 5.6
• Wyatt Demps  Nevada Senior Rec/TD rate of 5.9
• Cody Thompson Rec/TD rate of 5.9
• Michael Gallup Colorado State Senior Rec/TD rate of 6.4
• Equanimeous St. Brown Notre Dame Junior Rec/TD rate of 6.4
• James Washington Rec/TD rate of 6.7

Sure, Blame the QB – In an attempt to account for QB accuracy (let’s face it, that has a lot to do with being a successful receiver), the ROI metrics were normalized based on the QB completion percentage for FBS of 60.3%.  The guys how were already efficient by being above the average ROI despite crappy QB play get love here:

1. Malik Turner Illinois Senior – Turner gathered 48 receptions for 712 yards and 6 touchdowns despite having a team passing completion percentage that was 17.9% below average.  His QB adjusted ROI is 38.5%
2. Jamire Jordan –His QBs were 16.2% off the average boosting him to 38.2% ROI.
3. Tre’Quan Smith  - His passing attack was off by 10.6%, giving him adjusted ROI of 35.0%
4. Courtland Sutton Southern Methodist Junior- Despite the QB completion percentage off by 10.8%, Sutton put together a solid 76/1246/10 stat line in 2016.  If he has worked on the finer points of his game over the summer, he will most likely enter the 2018 NFL Player Draft as a high projected pick. 
5. Devonte Boyd UNLV Senior The WAC constantly hides gem receivers three of which over as many years, have been some of my favorite prospects.  Two years ago it was Josh McCain of Idaho (did not receive an NFL offer despite leading the conference in receiving), last year it was Marcus Kemp (KC undrafted FA) of Hawai’I and this year Boyd. His QB play was the league worst at 28.4% off the average yet his QB adjusted ROI was 31.2% driven by a 45/746/4 stat line.  I am a huge fan of this man. 

As we get closer to opening kickoff, keep an eye out for the above.

Shameless Self-Promotion!

Watch this spot for more College Football and WR updates and analysis, including weekly updates of wide receiver  ROI for FBS, FCS, Division II and Division III!

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2017 DraftTwitter 100 Success Compared to the Actual Draft

The DraftTwitter 100 

In  January 2017, a group of talented amateur scouts got together to embark on an experiment to see if DraftTwitter, that amorphous blob of football talent evaluation that resides in the Twitterverse, could rank NFL player prospects with the "accuracy" of pro scouts.  

Keeping Track

The DraftTwitter Top 100 ("DT 100") was not meant to be compared to the actual NFL draft. Despite the "Best Player Available" draft strategy followed by some teams, many base their selections on team player personnel needs.  So. while DraftTwitter's goal was to rank the 100 best prospects, teams like the Bears traded up to get the player they felt best fit their specific needs.  So, how can we compare ourselves to the draft if the criteria used for selection are inconsistent? 

Position Breakout

Instead of comparing The DT 100 to NFL's first through one hundredth picks, we can simply break out ranking by position.  For example, here are the comparative rankings for the 8 RBS included in the DT 100 vs. their actual spot selected (Pos Pick, below):

Player	Pos Pick	DT 100	School
Leonard Fournette	1	1	Louisiana State
Christian McCaffery	2	2	Stanford
Dalvin Cook	3	3	Florida State
Joe Mixon	4	4	Oklahoma
Alvin Kamara	5	5	Tennessee
Kareem Hunt	6	7	Toledo
D'Onta Foreman	7	6	Texas
James Conner	8		Pittsburgh
Samaje Perine	9	8	Oklahoma
Tarik Cohen	10		North Carolina A&T

In the above example, the DT 100 matched up nicely, selecting the first 5 RBs in the exact order they were drafted, including nailing the complex Joe Mixon as RB4.  The remaining RBs were each only off by one selection, proving the DT 100 RB class the strongest forecast by the project.  

Obviously, we were pretty accurate with our RB picks, but how does one present this quantitatively?

The "V" Word Again

Not sure what some of you were thinking, but the "V" word we use time and again is Value.  And what ultimately determines value is what someone is willing to give up to obtain something compared to another.  While comparing one player's level of contribution to another is a nice way to start an interminable argument, it is not a good way to compare players.  The Opportunity expense to have a player on your football team is ultimately measured in one way - contract value.  By comparing a drafted player's projected slotted contract value to that of the position DraftTwitter predicted he would be picked, we find out if we over valued a player or got a great "bargain".  (This assumes the actual draft order is "perfect" which it is since that is the standard we have until players actually start ringing up stats over the next few years).

If we add contract values to the table above, it looks like this:

DraftTwitter Top 100 - RB Rankings

Leonard Fournette	1	1	Louisiana State	$27,286,806	0%
Christian McCaffery	2	2	Stanford	$17,322,323	0%
Dalvin Cook	3	3	Florida State	$6,374,002	0%
Joe Mixon	4	4	Oklahoma	$5,465,848	0%
Alvin Kamara	5	5	Tennessee	$3,868,505	0%
Kareem Hunt	6	7	Toledo	$3,382,934	3%
D'Onta Foreman	7	6	Texas	$3,276,778	-3%
James Conner	8		Pittsburgh	$3,181,736
Samaje Perine	9	8	Oklahoma	$3,018,197	-5%

Leonard Fournette was the 4th overall pick, earning him a salary of $27MM. Since we had him as the first RB selected, we agree that his salary should have been identical and so he is at even value.  Going down to Kareen Hunt, we had him as RB7 (with a contract value of $3,276,778) however the league told us he's RB6 (at a $3,382,934 value) so the NFL valued him 3% more than DT 100.  On average, DT RB selections had a variance of only -1%., meaning we were pretty much dead on with our picks from a value standpoint compared. 

In absolute values, the range went from 1% (RBs and Safeties) to 29% (the NFL valued the average LB about 29% more than we did):   

Here is the table of how we performed at each position:

Position	Under/ (-Over)
CB	10%
DE	13%
DT	5%
LB	29%
OL	2%
QB	3%
RB	-1%
S	1%
TE	-4%
WR	-2%

• LB includes OLB and ILB
• OL includes C, G and T
• S includes FS and SS

The Good

Out of the Top 100 players selected, DraftTwitter picked 26 correctly within their position group. The most accurate group was the RB group, in which we picked 63% correct.

Position	Bullseyes
CB	27%
DE	27%
DT	27%
LB	44%
OL	8%
QB	20%
RB	63%
S	10%
TE	17%
WR	54%

The Bad

 We were off the most, by far, with the LB group:

Player	Pos	Pos Rank	DTR	School	Total Value
Haason Reddick	OLB	1	2	Temple	$13,538,340	23%
Jarrad Davis	ILB	2	6	Florida	$11,015,687	106%
T.J. Watt	OLB	3	7	Wisconsin	$9,295,615	97%
Reuben Foster	ILB	4	1	Alabama	$9,071,121	-33%
Tyus Bowser	OLB	5	9	Houston	$5,591,978	52%
Ryan Anderson	OLB	6	10	Alabama	$5,339,704	47%
Raekwon McMillan	ILB	7	8	Ohio State	$4,709,050	5%
Zach Cunningham	OLB	8	3	Vanderbilt	$4,482,010	-52%
Duke Riley	LB	9	11	Louisiana State	$3,684,055	16%

The numbers were all over the place:  DT` 100 had Reuben Foster at LB1, but the NFL thought he was no better than LB4, so we got him at a huge 33% discount to his NFL value. On the other hand, the NFL didn't watch the same tape DraftTwitter did because they wrote a $11MM check to Jarrad Davis at LB2 compared to the $5.3MM check DraftTwitter had ready for him. That is a 106% premium to where DT had Mr. Davis. The closest we came to agreeing with the NFL on LBs was Raekwon McMillan who came at only a 5% premium compared to DT 100's.

The Ugly

The RB table shows how good DT 100 was with that player position.  We were also 1% off for Safeties but despite the nearly identical differential compared to RBs (off -1%), our skill at picking Safeties was pretty far worse. What do I mean? 

Jamal Adams	S	1	1	Louisiana State	$22,367,629	0%
Malik Hooker	S	2	2	Ohio State	$12,655,428	0%
Jabril Peppers	S	3	4	Michigan	$10,385,025	52%
Budda Baker	S	4	3	Washington	$6,853,308	-34%
Marcus Maye	S	5	8	Florida	$6,575,816	45%
Marcus Williams	S	6	6	Utah	$6,260,481	0%
Justin Evans	S	7	10	Texas A&M	$5,213,582	23%
Obi Melifonwu	S	8	5	Connecticut	$4,519,852	-31%
Josh Jones	S	9	7	North Carolina State	$4,242,361	-19%
John Johnson	S	10		Boston College	$3,361,028
Delano Hill	S	11		Michigan	$3,287,014
Tedric Thompson	S	12		Colorado	$3,030,488
Eddie Jackson	S	13	9	Alabama	$3,024,247	-29%

Although DT 100 got 3 selections perfect, the other picks suffered from the values distributed over a larger  number of picks and, thus, a wider range of contract values. So, overall the group performance was quite good (at 1% off) the fluctuation in numbers makes us realize we lucked out on this one when the differential was only 1%. 

Superlatives

The overall most overvalued pick - According to our method, Adoree Jackson was by far the most overvalued pick out there.  Tennessee picked him at #18 overall as CB3, with a contract value of $11.3MM.  DT 100 had him as CB11 which actually went 66th overall at a contract value of $3.8MM.  Based on the above, Jackson was a whopping 192% overvalued by the league.

According to Kent Lee Platte's (aka MathBomb) Relative Athletic Score maps a player's potential to his athletic testing profile.  Here is his RAS for Jackson:

His height and weight were his only "red" metrics and his overall RAS is very promising. 

Here are some other players who were overvalued by > 50%:

• Taco Charleton 98% (Actual pick: DE5 [#28 overall]; DT100 DE6 [#51])
• TJ Watt 97% (Actual pick: LB3[#30]; DT100 LB7 [#54])
• Adam Shaheen  86% (Actual pick: TE5 [#45]; DT100 TE6 [#100])
• Garett Bolles 57% (Actual pick: OL1 [#20]; DT100 OL3 [#34])
• Tyus Bowser  52% (Actual pick: LB5[#47]; DT100 LB9 [#75])

The best bargain pick - Unfornately for Bucky Hodges, DT100 had him at TE4 which went at pick #44 overall with a contract value of  $6MM but the NFL wasn't as high on him.  He didn't get called until the 201st pick as TE13 (appropriate) with a contract value of $2.5MM, massively undervalued at 59%. but also the potentially biggest bargain of this draft.

Take a look at his RAS score:

The guy was 14 out of 463 - better than 96.7% of all qualifying TEs in Kent's database.  But he lost out on a lot of money with his drop through the rounds.

Here are some other players who were undervalued by > 30%:

• Jake Butt -55% (Actual pick: TE8 [#145 overall]; DT100 TE5 [#45])
• Zach Cunningham 52% (Actual pick: LB8[#57]; DT100 LB3 [#30])
• Deshaun Watson  52% (Actual pick: QB35 [#12]; DT100 QB1 [#2])
• Caleb Brantley 35% (Actual pick: DT14 [#185]; DT100 DT4 [#65])
• Obi Melifonwu  31% (Actual pick: S8 [#56]; DT100 S5 [#39])

Looking Forward

With 2017 results recapped, we can now look forward to the 2017-18 NCAA college football season.  Throughout the season, we will post weekly Wide Receiver Return on Investment calculations and specialty articles on prospects across all positions in FBS, FCS, Division II and III. Occasionally, I might throw in an NFL progress report on a success of a particular draft class.  And in January 2018, we will look to launch another DraftTwitter Top 100 survey to all interested parties.  

Thank you and feel free to drop me a line at Boombearjr@gmail.com.

Comparison Tool for the 2017 NFL Player Draft

Value is the Name of the Game

A regular reader of this blog will know that value, or getting more for less, is a common theme.  After the 2016 draft, I put together a spreadsheet to compare players' relative values given their slotted draft salary. The thought being, if a franchise is going to pay X time more for a player, he should provide X more value.  Below I provide the link to this years Comparison tool that I hope you will use.

Well, What is Value?

According to Merriam-Webster, Value is "relative worth, utility or importance".  Whether that is measured in term of actual overall wins achieved with that player on board, that player providing a long term solution at a particular position, actual stats, star power to drive attendance and merchandise sales or a combination of those (or other) factors, value means different things to different people.  We have no greater example of the subjectivity of value than the Chicago Bears trade up one spot with SF to go get Mitchell Trubisky.


So in assessing value for this exercise, the standard is comparing projected contract values which reflect the draft spot of each player.  Because the rookie contracts are set based on selection, this is a fairly pure way to ascertain comparative value.  While it can get kind of crazy at times, such as the aforementioned Trubisky being over 11x more valuable than Brad Kaaya, when you consider the position of the former compared to the latter to make a huge impact on his new team simply by the fact that they will live and die by his success may support that valuation.   That Kaaya will sit for a while does not mean he will inevitably be as, if not more, valuable than Mitchell, his value to the franchise is not as high right now because they are not so tied to his success. 


From another, less esoteric standpoint, if value means "head-to-head" who is the better player, than being 11x better than anyone is tough to rationalize especially when we're talking about rookie QBs.  But time will tell.

Using the Comparison Tool

The "Cap" tab lists the draftees and certain information included their projected rookie contract value (thanks to Spotrac.com for the information).


The Comparison Tool asks you to pick two players to compare in which Player A will be judged in terms of Player B.  The players are accessible through the drop down list for each cell which is in alphabetical order by first name.  The resultant value represents their relative value by way of their draft position contract value.


Here are a couple of my favorites:

• Buffalo WR Zay Jones is nearly twice as valuable as Tampa Bay's Chris Godwin.
• Injured Eagle Sidney Jones is also nearly twice as valuable as fellow CB Cordrea Tankersley of MIA who was previously seen as a likely top draft pick.
• CAR's drafting of fullback Alex Armah at #192 overall made him more valuable by 1% than highly touted MIN TE Bucky Hodges. 

The Link

Here is the link to the Boombearjr 2017 NFL Draft Comparision Tool:  please explore, have fun and @Boombearjr on Twitter with your favorite comparisons.


Thank you and feel free to follow me on Twitter and  Facebook