The Initial 2017-18 FBS Wide Receiver Return on Investment Efficiency Top 15

Here we go!

Thank you for taking the time to check out the first Return on Investment WR list for the 2017-18 season.  This will be the third year of our list which attempts to normalize statistics across the draft eligible Wide Receivers in college football's FBS division to isolate those displaying exceptional efficiency.  The data is generated using the 4th version of the original model I created, which remains unchanged since the end of last year (so I think we have the spreadsheet the way it needs to be!).  The measure is called Return on Investment.

What is ROI?

Return on Investment for WRs is based on measuring how much better a player is compared to his teammates at producing receptions compared to target opportunities and yards compared to reception opportunities.  The aggregate of these percentages gives us a player’s ROI.  And while one player may be in a run first offense, another in a pass first and another in a balanced system, volume does not benefit the WR in this analysis as all statistics are based on rates.  

There are two components to ROI:

• Raw ROI - Reflects a receiver's efficiency based on contributory receptions and yards.
• QB adjusted ROI - Normalizes Raw ROI to reflect the possible impact of team QB completion percentage on receiver performance. 

The average of these two ratios results in Average ROI which represents how much more production a WR generated compared to what would be expected from his share of opportunities. 

The numbers discussed until after the end of the season will not include the target/reception ratio as target figures are easier to compile at the end of the season than weekly. (I have only so much time...)

This measure is not offered to definitively screen out every future NFL All-Pro.  Simply being on the list or even at the top of the list is no indication of a player's potential as a draft prospect.  ROI is simply the first of several tools used to find players who may have strong traits and skill sets; players who may otherwise be overlooked because the media buzz can only support but a few names.  Again, ROI is the first, not the last step in creating your "Draftable" list.  The follow up to screening out a new prospect using ROI is, of course, additional film study and research. 

For those of you unfamiliar with the ratio and would like to see a working example of the calculation, please read the original article.

Past Top ROI Receivers

Below are a list of prospects who made the final top ROI lists and how where they were taken in the NFL player draft. 

  

2015

Chris Conley - drafted by KC Chiefs

Sammie Coates - drafted by Pittsburgh Steelers

Devin Smith - drafted by NY Jets

Breshad Perriman - drafted by Baltimore Ravens

Cam Worthy UDFA - Baltimore Ravens

John Harris UDFA - Philadephia Eagles

Ian Hamilton (UTEP) -  undrafted

2016

Deangelo Yancey - drafted by GB Packers

Josh Reynolds - drafted by LA Rams

Josh Malone - drafted by Cincinnati Bengals

Ardarius Stewart - drafted by NY Jets

Amba Etta-Tawo - UDFA Jacksonville Jaguars

Marcus Kemp - UDFA KC Chiefs

Austin Carr - UDFA NE Patriots

Keelan Cole - UDFA Jacksonville Jaguars

Chance Allen (Houston) Undrafted

Sebastian Smith (Ohio) Undrafted

ROI will be judge solely on how many of the top ROI guys you may never have heard of are on NFL squads.  If you are like, "Who is Deangelo Yancey?" my response will be the the guy drafted by the Packers.  Some names you may know, but if there are some you don't, maybe you should check out this column every week to stay on top of the leading ROI wide receivers.

Survey 1 (Week 3 2017)

The first survey analyzes the current season through week 3:

The table above is based on the NCAA FBS statistical website .  Qualifying receivers are draft eligible and had at least 10 receptions through the measuring period.

Here some thoughts on a few of the Top 20 WRs through Week 3:

• #1 Overall Datrin Guyton, Bowling Green State University 17.5% of team's receptions for 34.4% of team's receiving yards for an average ROI of 105.4%.  His efficiency is 400% better than the currrent average FBS receiver ROI of 26.4%. Guyton is a transfer from Oregon State.  He was 2nd team All State out of Manor HS (TX) and listed as a Top 100 Player in the state of Texas.  He sat out 2016 to satisfy that insane transfer rul e and is now getting a chance to show out.  Fun Fact:  He has the craziest HS recruit video music I've heard in a long time.  It's like Soundcloud Hip Hop meets 1970's Glam music. 
• #2 Overall DeAndre McNeal, Florida Atlantic University Average ROI of 93.2%, 354% more efficient than average.  Former Longhorn detoured though JUCO; ended up winning a national championship with Fullerton CC (CA). In High School he played QB, RB, WR, LB and DB.  I think he even snapped the ball to himself.  So far in 3 games at FAU he's lead in receiving yards each game. Which is nice.   His promo video (which is cuts of him mainly at WR) has more customary music but here's a news piece about him  busting onto the scene during FAU camp.  Coach Kiffin makes a cameo and by the looks of him, he seems to really appreciate all the great Florida restaurants about town.
• #6 Overall Steven Simms Jr. Kansas University Average ROI 68.7%, 261% more efficient than average.  A kid from Houston, a hot bed of football recruiting, who was a finalist for the Houston Touchdown Club somehow ends up in ..Kansas?  Have not yet looked into his story but he is solid at the college ranks.     
• #7 Overall Chris Platt, Baylor University Average ROI of 66.5% 252% more efficient than average.  Chris Platt has not only proven that he is a football guy who runs track (and not the other way around) but he has done the nearly impossible - he has me excited about a Baylor WR prospect.  The first play of his HS promo video was all I needed.  His willingness to hanging in through the rough road in Waco shows a lot about his loyalty and perseverance. 
• #15 Overall Vic Wharton III, Cal-Berkeley Average ROI 48.4%,  183% more efficient than average.  I can't tell you much about him other than he transferred from Tennessee, played about 6 different positions in HS, showing out All-State (TN) AND he has the Avatar of highlight reels.  I'm sure they spent 1,000 hours producing and editing this cinematic tour de force.  The eagle screeches are my favorite.  Oh, and he can ball out as well. 
• #20 Overall Trent Sherfield, Vanderbilt University 39.8%, 151% more efficient than average.  He has the advantage of being a former All-State QB (IL) and having been a 3 sport athlete in high school, both huge bonuses for me.  Dude got playing time his freshman year, in his sophomore year, he was the top receiving threat.  He knows how to get separation and understands every facet of the game.  Keep an eye out for him. 

ROI Game of the Week:  Texas Tech at Houston Not only does this game have two of my Pre-Season Breakout candidates TTU's Keke "Clean" Coutee and Houston's Steven Dunbar, but also one of my favorite 'non-big 3 QBs" Nic Shimonek who will face a big test vs an Ed Oliver led Houston defense.  Both teams have postponed games due to Hurricane Harvey so, despite the tough past few weeks, they should have fresh legs.  The over/under on this game is 71 so let the fireworks begin!

Looking forward to updating this list every week to discuss new names.  

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