NFL Draft 2000-2014 - QB Values Part I The Best

What Do We Mean By "Value"?

This space is dedicated to value, that is, find out how to get more with less.  Every football season, we are obsessed with arguing about QBs.  In college and the pro level, the question, "Who is number one?" is tossed around online, on television and radio and in bars across America.    But the criteria used to determine "best" is not easy to pinpoint.  Stats, records, championships, etc can be used alone or in combination to prove ones' point as to the superiority of QB X to QB Y.  But in a value based world, how does one assess "Best" or "Worst" in this discussion?

It's All About the Cost

Value in this space is tied to cost and we typically use a combination of factors to measure players, but it isn't always simply a matter of dollars and sense.  In determining who the best draft value QBs have been since 2000, we looked at the following:

• Rookie Contract Value based on Draft Position - The ultimate measure in perceived value is one's draft position.  Despite the experts' opinions, all it takes is one GM to take a player who may not have been regarded very highly to pick him higher than projected to instantly increase that player's value.  And, of course, in concert, the expectations of his performance.  No one expects the 6th round draft pick to perform at the same level as the 1st rounder.  So, we start with a contract value for each player based on their actual draft position compared to the 2017 rookie contract scale.  Subsequent contracts are ignored since to earn an additional contract, a player must have proved his worth and so the value is more in line with reality as opposed to the initial "pre-draft" perception of the player. 
• Average Number of Starts per Season - The denominator of our ratio is the average number of starts a QB had per season he played.  Starts seemed like a reasonable criteria since a player's value is wholly predicated on his ability to help his team.  If he is on the field, his coaching staff values him as the best option for the team to win.  The natural inclination might be to use total starts as a factor, however, when we look at the broad picture, we could have a journeyman back up with 32 career starts over 8 years comparing to a solid starter who had 32 starts over a 2 year career shortened by injury.  The former averaged 4 starts a year while the latter, 16 starts.  Clearly, the player with the shorter career was more highly valued. 

Cost per Start

From the above, we determine the value of the player by dividing 2017 Rookie Contract Value based on his own draft position by the average number of starts per season over his playing career (number of starts divided by seasons active in the league).  The player's Cost per Start attempts to validate in clear numbers if a guy was simply overvalued based on his performance over his career.  Here is the link to the full data table.  

Best Value Picks - Top 5

1. Tom Brady 6th Round, Pick, # 199- Cost per Start:  $173,424    You don't have to be an NFL historian or salary cap guru to be able to guess who is the most valuable QB since 2000.  His poor combine and draft position are almost as legendary as his on field dominance. A hero to many, nemesis to others but respected by nearly all, Tom will likely be known as the greatest ever to play the game.  Sixth round draft pick Brady is a 5 time Super Bowl Champion (and some don't think he's finished yet), was MVP for 4 of  those games, was a 2 time league MVP and 12x All Pro. And that's just scratching the surface of his many achievements.   
2. Russell Wilson - 3rd Round,  Pick, #75 Cost per Start:  $219,860 I remember watching an NC State game back in the late 2000's and some short guy kept throwing the ball all over the field, ringing up completions and touchdowns.  I thought, "Who is this guy?"  That was Russell Wilson who, after a change of heart during a stint with the Colorado Rockies, returned to college ball and Wisconsin.  He promptly commenced to tear stuff up while a Badger, as well.  "Undersized", he took on the draft universe and lasted until the 3rd round while can't miss Man Mountains like Brandon Weeden and Brock Osweiler were taking ahead of him.  Never one to back down, Wilson went on to become rookie of the year and a champion by leading his Seahawks to victory in Super Bowl 48. 
3. Marc Bulger - 6th Round, Pick #168 Cost per Start:  $223,468  Bulger, after not making it out of training camp with the Saints, the team that drafted him, latched on with the Falcons' practice squad before moving over the the Rams. .After Kurt Warner was released, Bulger was given the reins to the "Greatest Show on Turf".  While he never attained the success of the Warner led "Show" being, himself, beset with injuries, Bulger started 95 games in his career, being twice named an All-Pro and leading the Rams to the Wild Card playoff game in 2006.  Not much exciting on Bulger, but here's a little something that, while obviously staged, was kinda cool. 
4. Ryan Fitzpatrick - 7th Round, #250 Cost per Start:  $254,924  Sure, there have been plenty of Crimson players in the NFL, but they got far more marketing bang for their buck out of Fitz whose middle name may as well have been "Harvard Alum".  Of his measurables at the 2005 NLF Player Combine, the one that generated the most buzz was his near perfect Wonderlich score of 48 (out of 50).  Despite senior year stats of 1,986 yards, 13 TD passes and 6 INTs, the Shield evidently figured Fitz would simply be able to outsmart the competition at the next level and he was drafted by the Rams.  With the Rams he would earn a starting job filling in for an injured Jamie Martin.  Traded to the Bengals, he started when Carson Palmer went down with an injury.  Moving on to the Bills, he was next man up when Trent Edward got hurt. Eventually, Fitz latched on with the Titans and was at the ready when Jake Locker was felled with...an injury?  Hmm.  Gotta be a coincidence.  When he moved over the the Texans roster, Fitz was named starter outright but was replaced by his backup Ryan Mallett...but Fitz took the helm when Mallett was felled by a torn pec.  Jumping over to the Jets, Ryan was set to back up Geno Smith who (you'll never guess...) was injured in a legendary altercation with teammate IK Enemkpali so, Ryan, aka Damien from The Omen, became the starter. Ryan's performance has not been noteworthy  - he has 166 career TDs to 133 INTs for a ratio of 1.29x (compare to ratios of Tom Brady of 3.02x, Colin Kaepernick of 2.40x or Philip Rivers of 2.01x ), but he is always in the right place at the right time and that seems to have allowed him to build value over time. He is now signed with the Buccaneers.  Mr. Krabbs had better watch his back. 
5. Kyle Orton - 4th Round, #106 Cost per Start:  $348,507 Considered by some the #2 QB prospect out of high school, Orton rewrote the record books at Purdue and was rewarded by being drafted by the Bears in 2005 to help return that team to football relevance.  That year, despite Orton owning the lowest QB rating over the 15 games he started, the Bears made the playoffs.  Clearly, success in the win column does not insure a starting gig because he bounced around the Bears' depth chart a couple more years battling such names as Rex Grossman, Chad Hutchinson and Chris Leak. Finally, despite going 21-12 in games he started, the Bear traded him in the deal that brought Jake Cutler to Chicago. From there, Orton accumulated 82 starts over 9 years and earned the nickname "Uncle Rico".

These QBs round out the Top 10:

6.  David Garrard 

7.  Matt Cassell

8.  Kurt Cousins

9.  Derek Carr

10.  Andy Dalton

That is all for now. Please watch this space for Part II - The Bottom 5.

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