And Now for Something Completely Different...
Earlier this week, Part I of this study on quarterbacks selected in the NFL Player Draft from 2000 to 2014 discussed the best "values" during that time period. If you missed it, catch up here. This week, we will close the loop and examine some of the worst.
What Do We Mean By "Value"?
This space is dedicated to value, that is, find out how to get more with less. Every football season, we are obsessed with arguing about QBs. In college and the pro level, the question, "Who is number one?" is tossed around online, on television and radio and in bars across America. But the criteria used to determine "best" is not easy to pinpoint. Stats, records, championships, etc can be used alone or in combination to prove ones' point as to the superiority of QB X to QB Y. But in a value based world, how does one assess "Best" or "Worst" in this discussion?
It's All About the Cost
Value in this space is tied to cost and we typically use a combination of factors to measure players, but it isn't always simply a matter of dollars and sense. In determining who the best draft value QBs have been since 2000, we looked at the following:
- Rookie Contract Value based on Draft Position - The ultimate measure in perceived value is one's draft position. Despite the experts' opinions, all it takes is one GM to take a player who may not have been regarded very highly to pick him higher than projected to instantly increase that player's value. And, of course, in concert, the expectations of his performance. No one expects the 6th round draft pick to perform at the same level as the 1st rounder. So, we start with a contract value for each player based on their actual draft position compared to the 2017 rookie contract scale. Subsequent contracts are ignored since to earn an additional contract, a player must have proved his worth and so the value is more in line with reality as opposed to the initial "pre-draft" perception of the player.
- Average Number of Starts per Season - The denominator of our ratio is the average number of starts a QB had per season he played. Starts seemed like a reasonable criteria since a player's value is wholly predicated on his ability to help his team. If he is on the field, his coaching staff values him as the best option for the team to win. The natural inclination might be to use total starts as a factor, however, when we look at the broad picture, we could have a journeyman back up with 32 career starts over 8 years comparing to a solid starter who had 32 starts over a 2 year career shortened by injury. The former averaged 4 starts a year while the latter, 16 starts. Clearly, the player with the shorter career was more highly valued.
Cost per Start
From the above, we determine the value of the player by dividing 2017 Rookie Contract Value based on his own draft position by the average number of starts per season over his playing career (number of starts divided by seasons active in the league). The player's Cost per Start attempts to validate in clear numbers if a guy was simply overvalued based on his performance over his career.. The average cost per start of qualified QBs (they must have had at least an average of 1 start per career year) is $1,629,728. Here is the link to the full data table.
Zero
Of course draftees who never started a game would have undefined values (since you can't divide by 0, silly) and so they are represented by values of "0". When you look at the data table, the highest drafted QB during this period to never start a game was West Virginia's own Pat White who was selected by the Miami Dolphins in the 2nd round (#44 overall). Dude got cut by a team called the Virginia Destroyers...
Alright, Let's Get Into It
The worst QB values during the period:
5. David Carr #1 overall pick to the Houston, Texans (2002)
Cost per Start: $3,849,653 (236% more than average).
Carr put Fresno State football on the map but coouldn't put it together in Houston who drafted him as their first player ever (how is that for a legacy). Over his 11 year career he played for four teams including 2 stints with the Giants where he won a SB ring proving God has a great sense of humor. In 2,267 passing attempts he had:
- 267 sacks (a sack every 8.4 attempts)
- 71 fumbles (1 every 31.9 attempts)
- 65 TDs and 71 INTs for a ratio of 0.92 (hint, anything < 1, ain't good)
The upside is his little brother just can't understand that David failed to live up to the expectations, and so Derek Carr will always be trying to become half the QB he (and only he) believes David was.
4. Jimmy Garoppolo 2nd Round #64 overall to the New England Patriots (2014) Cost per Start: $4,195,779 (257% of average).
This won't be popular, but in the context of this survey, Bob Kraft spent a lot of money on this kid out of Eastern Illinois and hasn't gotten very much out of him. The guy is backing up arguably the greatest QB ever, so you can kind of see why he's sitting. This is his last year of a 4 year contract and so we will see what the Pats do over the next several months. With Brady at 40, how much do they want to pay a guy who might not even play for another 4 more years if Tom is truly going to play until 45 years old? Check out his video here and decide if you would keep him or trade him...
3. Marques Tuiasosopo 2nd Round #59 overall to the Oakland Raiders (2001)
Cost per Start: $4,321,222 (265% of average).
Tui, a HS option QB was recruited for his defensive play but stuck to his guns until he got the University of Washington to commit to getting him in the QB mix. His career there can be described as "nice". Not awesome, or amazing, but nice. Once drafted by the Raiders, he spent most of his time as the designated backup but since he spent 7 of his 8 years in the NFL as a Raider, clearly THEY valued him even if they couldn't get him on the field. Here is footage of him from U Wash that, for some reason, looks like it was from the 1980. It's all the worse because the soundtrack is Nas from the late 2000's. Everything about this guy is time warpy - check out the pic they have of him from Wikipedia.com which seems to have been taken sometime in the early 1970s before Tui was born.
2. Brian Brohm 2nd Round #52 overall to the Green Bay Packers (2008)
Cost per Start: $4,509,379 (277% of average).
After a productive career in Louisville's pass happy offense, Brian was drafted in the second round by a Packer's team with young signal callers Aaron Rogers and Matt Flynn already under contract. In a year, he was waived and signed to the practice squad. From there, Brohm became the Jack Karouac of football. He signed with the Buffalo Bills, then went to the United Football League's (!) Las Vegas Locomotives then, after knocking around a few NFL workouts, headed north of the border to sign with the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (I've been to Hamilton...didn't see one tiger) and last played for the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. Dude is a Johnny Cash song. It should be noted that his stint in Vegas ended when he and about 77 others sued the owner of the team for non-payment of salary. In a start up football league? How shocking...said no one. You'd figure a collegiate gunslinger who couldn't make it in the NFL would be a top guy in Canada...but you'd figure wrong. Even though he only had 154 pass attempts, he had a TD/INT ratio of 0.20 (pearls...clutched). You now know more about Brian Brohm than 99.9% of the population. Congrats.
1. Matt Leinart, 10th overall pick to the Arizona Cardinals (2006)
Cost per Start: $5,475,262 (336% of average).
I remember it well. Matty L had a tough choice to make: Return to college and play football for free just so he could complete that modern dance class he so wanted to take but could never seem to cram into his busy schedule OR leave school, become the first overall pick in the NFL draft where they actually pay you to play football and buy a modern dance studio (complete with dancers). And he didn't pick the one you would pick. In terms of decision making, he's on par with this guy. Fast forward to his selection by the Cardinals to be the heir apparent to Kurt Warner. He played hardball in his contract negotiations (before the current rookie salary scale) for a 6 year $61MM deal which, considering our calculations are based on the current structure, his cost per start is far worse since we're basing this on a $16MM contract. At 641 career passing attempts over the 6 years he was active in the league, he posted the following:
- 15 TDs (1 every 42.7 attempts)
- 21 INTs (TD/INT ratio of 0.71)
- 30 sacks (1 every 21.4 passing attempts)
- and my personal favorite, 47 rushing attempts and 11 fumbles. A fumble every 4.27 times he set off with the ball. That's not good.
Off the field he had that whole baby drama going on. Hey, who am I to judge...he likely rolled up to Baby Momma like....
Here are the others rounding out the Top 10 Worst Values:
6. JaMarcus Russell - Nope, not #1. Check the stat sheet.
7. Byron Leftwich - Kid was just always injured.
8. Michael Vick - Mr. Mexico only started an average of 8.8 games/ year but we know he had stuff going on.
9. Vince Young - In terms of value, drafting him at 3rd overall just didn't make any sense.
10. Drew Stanton - Late 2nd round guy, averaged only 1.9 starts per season over his career.
Thank you for following along as I explore this topic. Please look out for future studies.
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