Monday, February 13, 2017

DraftTwitter vs. 4 Letter Network Guy with the Normal Hair

Draft Twitter Prospect List Calling Out the Pros!

When I started analyzing NFL prospects, I made one promise:  Never to be hypercritical of the players.  I am significantly older than them and understand how tough it is to be a young man trying to find you way in this world, so I make every effort to offer "constructive criticism".  

Grown men impersonating as college football scouts, well, they get no such mercy. Especially not those who, time and again, give every indication they do not do the level of player evaluation and player study at the level of others in their field. 

The Other Guy


There is a "scout" who is paid a nice salary by a four-letter network who has proven many times, even by his own admission, that his evaluation method is flawed.  I could see if he admitted not doing much during the offseason, but he stated during a bowl game, witnessed by millions of people (myself included) that he hadn't watched ANY video of any of the players in the game up to that point, but he "HEARD" a lot about some of the top participants.  Really?  The man is making millions doing a job that will likely influence draft decisions by your favorite team and he hibernates like a bear, asking not to be awoken until just before the draft?  Amazing. His partner has really interesting hair and, say what you may about him, has built a solid scouting business from the ground up by doing his his homework the right way.  There will not be a prospect about whom he cannot opine, while his partner, the Other Guy, clearly gets his opinions for conversations with league scouts.  Sure, that's fine, but we know the scouts and GMs always float BS out there to confuse other teams, so the Other Guy is clearly used as a shill most of the time. 

Now that the DraftTwitter Top 100 (DT100) has been updated, we will see  how it measures up to the 4 Letter Network "scout" without the interesting hair, the Other Guy:


4 Letter Network's Other Guy  DraftTwitter RANK Prospect POS. SCHOOL Over/ Under Values
1 1 Myles Garrett DE Texas A&M 0
2 2 Jonathan Allen DT Alabama 0
3 5 Leonard Fournette RB LSU 2
4 3 Jamal Adams SS LSU -1
5 4 Solomon Thomas DE Stanford -1
6 8 Malik Hooker FS Ohio State 2
7 6 Dalvin Cook RB Florida State -1
8 20 Marshon Lattimore CB Ohio State 12
9 9 Reuben Foster ILB Alabama 0
10 7 Mike Williams WR Clemson -3
11 10 Derek Barnett DE Tennessee -1
12 21 Jabrill Peppers SS Michigan 9
13 32 David Njoku TE Miami (Fla.) 19
14 16 Ryan Ramczyk OT Wisconsin 2
15 23 Teez Tabor CB Florida 8
16 26 Taco Charlton DE Michigan 10
17 13 O.J. Howard TE Alabama -4
18 14 Sidney Jones CB Washington -4
19 12 Takkarist McKinley OLB UCLA -7
20 28 John Ross WR Washington 8
21 11 Corey Davis WR Western Michigan -10
22 42 Forrest Lamp OG Western Kentucky 20
23 35 Quincy Wilson CB Florida 12
24 36 Jarrad Davis OLB Florida 12
25 37 Caleb Brantley DT Florida 12
26 22 Cam Robinson OT Alabama -4
27 54 D'Onta Foreman RB Texas   27
28 27 Mitch Trubisky QB North Carolina -1
29 34 Budda Baker FS Washington 5
30 38 Tre'Davious White CB LSU 8
31 24 Christian McCaffrey RB Stanford -7
32 19 Malik McDowell DT Michigan State -13

Key

Column 1: 4 Letter Network Other Guy's Top 32 as of 2-12-17.
Column 2: DraftTwitter's rankings for each of the other guy's Top 32.
Column 6: That is the Under or Over Value of each of the Other Guy's picks.

What's the Difference?


It is obvious our panel of 27 contributors does not see the prospects the same as the Other Guy.  The Top 5 are basically identical except for exact placing; the Top 10's only question mark is Marshon Lattimore who is the Other Guy's top CB at number 8, where DT had him at 20 overall, behind  Sidney Jones for the top spot at that position.   
After that, run for cover:  He grossly over values Texas Running Bank D'Onta Foreman, 27 spots high than the DT100 list and Western Kentucky's OL Forrest Lamp 20 spots ahead of our composite rating of 42.  Late rising Tight End, David Njoku is rising up draft boards, but Other Guy places him 19 spots better. 

On the flip side, DT100 extends far more love to MSU DT Malik McDowell who Other Guy has 13 spots too low and has dinged Western Michigan WR Corey Davis 10 spots compared to DT100. Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey and UCLA OLB Takk McKinley are both docked 7 spots by Other Guy, a move our contributors believe will come back to bite him on the butt. 

To be sure, there will be movement in both the Post Combine version of the DraftTwitter 100 as well as the Other Guy's prospect lists.  Watch this space for continued comparisons between DT100 on an aggregate and on an individual contributors basis vs. the 4 Letter Network "Scouting" Team.

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