Elemental Statistics and Competition Level in Evaluating Defensive Ends

What are Elemental Statistics ?

Elemental Statistics (ES) are the basic contributory actions that attempt to isolate the ways one can truly measure a player.  In simpler terms, for DE’s, Elemental Statistics are considered Sacks, Forced Fumbles, Interceptions and Passes Broken Up (there may be other ES, and I welcome your feedback on the matter).   Tackles are not considered ES for DEs in this exercise since there are non-player factors that may lead to plays being run their way.

ES will vary from position to position, so in creating your own measures, be sure to consider what makes the most sense (perhaps we might use solo tackles as an ES for Cornerbacks and Defensive Tackles?)

All ES are not Created Equal

What is more telling than sheer numbers is the answer to the following question:  How did the player perform against the best opposition?

In watching video of certain players crowned top draft prospects, I often find myself perplexed.   I sit and watch a player touted as a top prospect struggle to make any impact.  The quarters fly by and I am stunned – where was the high impact player others had been selling me?  Then, I pop on his video versus a team that struggled to a 3-8  finish out of a non-Big 5 conference and, oh, there are the heroics. 

Competition matters.  It’s why so many players from the SEC, perceived by some to be the best conference in FBS, have a history of being (possibly) overrepresented in the NFL draft.  But membership in a certain conference has nothing to do with how one plays against top competition.

So, I have calculated the Elemental Statistical efficacy of some leading DE’s to give us insight into the numbers.

2017 Defensive End Class Examples

Elemental Statistics per Game is broken down into  “Above .500” for ES generated in games against teams with winning records (at least a 0.500 win percentage) and “Below  .500” for ES in games against teams with losing records (less than .500 win percentage). 

		Total ES	Elemental Stastics Per Game
Player	School	2016-17 Season	Above .500	Below .500	Above to Below
Takkarist McKinley	UCLA	19	2.14	1.00	114%
Hunter Dimick	Utah	23.5	1.90	1.75	9%
Derek Barnett	Tennessee	21	1.67	1.50	11%
Harold Landry	Boston College	27.5	1.60	2.79	-43%
Taco Charlton	Michigan	11.5	1.50	0.80	88%
Ejuan Price	Pittsburgh	17	1.43	1.40	2%
Demarcus Walker	Florida State	21	1.33	2.25	-41%
Randy Allen	South Alabama	17	1.10	1.44	-23%
Carlos Watkins	Clemson	14.5	1.05	0.75	39%
Jordan Willis	Kansas State	15.5	1.00	1.36	-26%
Charles Harris	Missouri	13	0.94	1.38	-32%
Myles Garrett	Texas A&M	11.5	0.83	1.63	-49%
Tarell Basham	Ohio	15.5	0.70	1.33	-48%
Solomon Thomas	Stanford	9	0.67	0.71	-7%
Dawuane Smoot	Illinois	8	0.63	0.75	-17%
Pat O'Connor	Eastern Michigan	14.5	0.57	1.75	-67%
Carl Lawson	Auburn	10	0.57	1.50	-62%
Chris Odom	Arkansas State	15.5	0.25	1.61	-84%

Total ES 2016-17 Season represents the total number of Sacks, INTs, PD and FF collected by the player.  Against winning teams, Jordan Willis had an average of one ES/game.   Harold Landry had the most ES (27.5) and maintained productive against all levels of competition. [NOTE: It is acknowledged Landry will return to school.]

Going down the list, it’s interesting to see which DE’s are:

Spotlight Seekers - Takkarist McKinley of UCLA performed 114% better vs. winning teams compared to the losing teams.

Consistent contributors - Ejuan Price picks up about 1.4 Elemental Statistic per game regardless of competition.

Bullies - Chris Odom seems to take out his frustrations on lessor opponents  since he has a 84% decline in performance going from weak competition to winning teams.

Obviously, statistics are not everything, but if you consider additional tools when watching video, like ES efficacy, they could help clarify your perspective on the DE position for the upcoming draft.

Would love feedback - feel free to reach out to me at boombearfootballmail@gmail.com