NFL Draft 2017 - Amateur Scouts vs. the Pros - The Draft Twitter 100!

Happy New Year!

I've been busy with the Other Side (that is, non-football life) so I apologize for being out of the loop.  Although I haven't written in a bit, I have been active behind the scenes working on an exciting and innovative research project that definitely welcomes your opinion.

Draft Twitter

"Draft Twitter" is essentially a pejorative term for amateur football scouts.on Twitter who offer opinions on college football players.  Within the Draft Twitter realm, there are a broad spectrum of characters who never disappoint, whether you are looking for a laugh, insight, a controversial player grade or any type of statistical analysis imaginable.  Because anyone can participate in Draft Twitter some of the points of view may be ...novel, to put it nicely. But as with anything, there are always diamonds in the rough. 

Around this time of year, Draft Twitter is in full effect in preparation of the upcoming 2017 NFL draft. 

Everybody Has One...

Opinions, that is.  And this year, we will capture the opinions of up to 100 Draft Twitter scouts to compare to one another as well as professional scouts on a certain 4 letter network.  I've have been requesting Top 100 prospect lists (not mock drafts which attempts to forecast draft position based on which team is drafting and other factors) to compile in an aggregate Top 100 list.  The purpose of this list is multi-fold.

1. To compile an aggregate Top 100 list - From the respondents, we will calculate the overall top 100 players.  The expectation is that the large number of respondents will help normalize the results to overcome any regional bias or gaps in information that may exist across the spectrum of Draft Twitter. 
2. To Compare Draft Twitter Scouts - The break out of each Scouts' picks will be distributed to each participant for use on her/his respective media outlet.  Each Scout will also be ranked based on variance from each position across the Top 25 in terms of placing. (For example, if my average pick was 3.2 spots off the aggregate Top 25 compared to another Scout who may have been only 2.8 spots off). 
3. To Compare vs. the Professionals - The 4 letter network has two gurus - can't use their real names so let's call them Del Piker and Tomm DickFlay.  We will incorporate them into the analysis to see how much they vary from the amateurs.
4. Backtesting - Many proclamations are made each year by Draft Twitter about who will be the next big thing...wouldn't it be great to check year after year to see who's getting  it right?  Part of this project is the ongoing maintenance of  backtesting the results to see whose picks actually panned out.  From some of my previous articles, you can see I have an interest in going back through drafts to find out which players were the best values.  On draft anniversaries, it would be great to go back and see how well our Scouts performed using real world player stats. 

Pre-Combine Survey

Currently, I am conducting the pre-combine survey which will be published no earlier than February 11, 2017.  After publication, the post-combine ballot will be distributed to contributors of the first survey, with others permitted to request ballots after the combine closes. We have an acceptable sample size now, which generates the current Top 10 aggregate list:

1. Myles Garrett DE, Texas A&M 
2. Jonathan Allen DT, Alabama
3. Solomon Thomas DE, Stanford
4. Jamal Adams SS, LSU
5. Dalvin Cook RB, FSU
6. Leonard Fournette RB, LSU
7. Reuben Forster ILB, Alabama
8. Derek Barnett DE, Tennessee
9. Mike Williams WR Clemson
10. Malik Hooker FS, Ohio State

Each player is given a score from 100-1 and the points averaged across the voters.  Garrett has a score of 99.11...not quite the unanimous #1 but very, very solid.  The rest of the numbers will be revealed in the final Pre-Combine ranking. 

Remember, the standings fluctuate with each ballot I add to the spreadsheet (I update as ballots come in from the scouts), but the top 3 have been pretty consistent thus far. 

Pitch In!

If you have an interest in sharing your opinions, shoot me an email boombearfootballmail@gmail.com requesting a ballot (operated via Google Sheets) and we will get you plugged in.

This has been a great experience so far for scouts to connect and share opinions.  I'd like to thank all those who have made this possible.           

Shameless self-promotion!! 

Don't forget to like and Retweet the link that got you here!!!!