Building the Perfect Beast - Position Salary Breakdown of the NFL Playoff Teams

"You Have to Spend Money, to Make Money"

The NFL is a business, as any player would likely tell you.  And wins and losses will tell you right away which teams are best at handling their business.  The league controls spending by way of the salary cap, however, there are no rules on how you must spend your money.  So, this analysis will take a look at how the successful and not so successful teams allocated their salary dollars in 2017.

Howdhedoit?

The methodology is fairly simple:  using the 2017 positional salary statistics presented by Overthecap.com, we found the average cost per position for each of the 2017-2018 playoff teams and the same for the 12 teams with the lowest winning percentage through the regular season.  

Super Bowl Hopeful

Playoff teams had the following spending habits:

• Drunken Sailor - Representing salaries beyond 1 standard deviation from the position average, about 42% of playoff teams earned this designation when it came to Running Backs.  You will note, no one had Alligator Arms on this one (see below).  Evidently, playoff teams didn't care what it costs, they will spare no expense for the featured back they want. 
• Very Generous - Safety is a position I have recently proven is one of the most reliable positions to draft in the 1st round and it seems the GMs agree as as they will spend put to 1 standard deviation above average salary, here. 
• Budget Conscious - Representing salaries down to 1 standard deviation below average, Quarterbacks, Linemen on both sides of the ball and Linebackers all fall into this category.  What happened to teams breaking the bank for their signal caller?  Playoff teams are contrarian, it seems.  GMs are not being cheap, here...they are just careful with their money. 
• Alligator Arms - When  GMs are paying into the 2 standard deviation below average range, you know they feel like they have a lot of leverage in terms of contract options.  Not surprising, Cornerbacks, a position which annually seems to have the most members of the incoming draft class, get the scraps on playoff teams, compared to average.  
• We saw ties at the Wide Receiver (with Very Generous and Alligator Arms represented each at  33%) and Tight End position which showed it really didn't matter to GMs which TE they got, from a pricing standpoint. 

So, we seem the NFL elite put a premium on Running Backs and, to a lessor extent, Safeties.  Now, let's see how the teams near the bottom of the standings spend their cash.

Toilet Bowl Bound

• Drunken Sailor - Remember the thing about spending to make money?  Well the Toilet Bowl Bound teams didn't get that memo.  They spent heavily on Cornerbacks, the same position  Super Bowl Hopefuls economized.  You can see where this is going, can't you? 
• Very Generous - Quarterbacks are the big money tickets here with about 42% in this range.  Now, Super Bowl Hopefuls sent the same amount in this category, but the majority of teams were in the budget conscious area.  Perhaps Gronk and Ertz got these teams all amped for Tight Ends, but they definitely tend to overspend compared to the playoff temas. 
• Budget Conscious - Here's where the wheels really start to fall off.  TBBs are not willing to shell out the cash for Running Backs or Safeties, the two positions upon which SBH teams splurge.  Here, however, both groups agree when it comes to budgeting for Linemen and Linebackers.
• Alligator Arms -  Although no position group's majority is in this category, you'll notice TBBs will take the bargain option more often than Playoff teams at QB (33% TBB vs 0% SBH) and RB (25% vs. 0%).

Based on the 2017 data, we can visually see how much above or below each position mean the average Super Bowl Hopeful and the average Toilet Bowl Bound teams were:

Super Bowl Hopefuls vs Toilet Bowl Bounds

• QB:  Super Bowl Hopeful average position salary per team is 1.1% above the league mean vs. -15.9% for Toilet Bowl Bound teams (17% differential)
• RB:  29.3% vs. 11.5% (40.9%)
• WR: -8.6% vs. -2.1% (-6.5%)
• TE:  9.4% vs. 25.8% (-16.4%)
• OL. 0.5% vs. 1.4% (-0.9% )
• DL: 8.9% vs. 3.9% (5.0%)
• S:  12.9% vs. -17.9% (30.8%)
• CB -16.9% vs. 10.0% (-26.8%)

 Projecting 2018 Performance 

Based on the position salary averages for 2017, we can attempt to project which teams will belog to which group in 2018 based on the above percentages.  Obviously, because the data we started with is based on early free agency period numbers, these projections will fluctuate once final rosters are provided at the beginning of the upcoming 2018 season.  But for now, here are the projected top and bottom finishers:

2017 Super Bowl Hopefuls

1.  San Francisco
2. Buffalo
3. Indianapolis
4. Jacksonville
5. Denver
6. Philadelphia
7. Detroit
8. Los Angeles Rams
9. Cincinnati 
10. Cleveland
11. New Orleans
12. Minnesota

Note:  The above was adjusted so that there would be 6 teams from each conference.  In terms of the scoring system, LA Chargers and KC Chiefs are projected to have better finishes than the listed 11 and 12 teams.

. 

2017 Toilet Bowl Bound

1. Chicago
2. Miami
3. NY Giants
4. Atlanta
5. Pittsburgh
6. Oakland
7. Tampa Bay
8. Dallas
9. NY Jets
10. Baltimore
11. Washingon
12. New England

Note: As with the previous list, the Patriots were moved into the 12th spot instead of the  3 NFC teams that project worse finished.  

Remember, these projections are based on spending habit trends of the top performing teams from 2017 based on aggregation of many factors, so this "guess" is not expected to be 100% accurate.  Both lists look reasonable, even with the eyebrow raisers of the Browns making the AFC playoffs instead of the Patriots.  

Check back just prior to the new season for update projections based on the final rosters. 

Shameless Self-Promotion!!!

Follow me on Twitter @boombearjr 

or at my Facebook page:  Boombearjr Football Analysis (also @boombearjr).

Continue to watch this space for more NFL Draft commentary. 

Post Combine Ballot

The NFL draft is just around the corner!!  Be heard!  Get your ballot for the 2nd Annual DraftTwitter Top 100 aggregation TODAY!  Please reach out to have a ballot (which is on an Excel online based spreadsheet that is quick and easy to use) by leaving a comment or emailing me at boombearfootballmail@gmail to have a ballot link forwarded to you.  

Under the Microscope - 2018 NFL Combine Wide Receiver Testing

Turn on the Bright Lights

Last week we looked at the NFL Player Combine results of the lunch pail guys on the Offensive Line, the unsung heroes who make it all happen. This week, we look at the guys who make the highlight reels with high flying catches, spins away from defenders and that extra gear to take it to the house:  Wide Receivers.  

For all their glitz, receivers have arguably the least interesting Combine trials -  the raw data shows a lot of guys near the middle of the pack.  The table below only highlights those qualified performers who posted above average aggregate measures.

The Metrics

Each athlete was ranked based on their overall performance in the 40 meter dash, short shuttle, broad jump, vertical jump and the bench press. For every event except the bench press and vertical jump, each player was ranked based on their actual or raw  measure and an adjusted measure which considers body mass.  Bench press was graded on the actual work generated with consideration to the athlete's mass.  Vertical jump was graded 3 ways:  actual, adjusted for body mass and the jump as a percentage of the athlete's height. 

Each player was ranked based on their finish for each event and the distribution of scores for each event. Each performance was assigned a grade which correspond to the colors and fonts used in the table:

• Superior - Greater than 2 standard deviations above the mean.  This is designated by Bold font with a Green background. (Our top 3 finishers each claimed superior grades in two categories).
• Outstanding - Greater than 1 SD above the mean.  Designated by plain font with a Green background.
• Above Average - Within 1 SD above the mean.  Designated by bold font with Yellow background.
• Below Average - Within 1 SD below the mean. Designated by plain font with Yellow background.
• Poor - Greater than 1 SD below the mean.  Designated by plain font with Red background.
• Dang, Son - Greater than 2 SD below the mean.  Designated by bold font with Red background.  (There was only one, "Dang, Son" awarded and that was in the bench press to a dude who is about 170 lbs so I guess I can forgive it.)

 The Top 13

 Of all the wide receivers at the Combine, based on the grading described above, 13 separated from the pack with 8 qualifying as Above Average and 5 as Outstanding. 

And the Winner Is...

Your daddy never warned you about Texas Tech alum Dylan Cantrell, former high school first team all-state in Texas.  Last I checked, they tend to take their football very seriously in the Lone Star state.  Dude was a top 3 finisher in each of the broad jump, short shuttle and vertical jump.  Out of the 10 categories used for grading, he scored #1 four times and was lower than 4th only twice.  His average ranking was 4.00 making him the "winner" of the NFL player combine for receivers.  As one of my sleeper QB's is Nic Shimonek, I have a lot of opportunity to watch Cantrell this past season.  Given can now be, arguably, called the most athletic receiver in this year's NFL Player Draft, I will have to do more homework on him as a prospect. 

The Other Outstanding Prospects

• The two DJ's, Moore and Chark finished #2 and #3, respectively.  Both had less than ideal circumstances to create a resume at their respective schools, Moore behind a Terps team that was still putting together their identity during his tenure and Chark who played behind 2 NFL calibre WRs most of his career having just one season as "the Man" with a signal caller who was not quite a household name.  Despite their challenges, each DJ is getting a lot of media attention to help their draft stock.
• He Ain't No Joke - Jester Weah was picked up off the Return on Investment radar last year and has continued his solid work in terms of efficiency for his senior year.  Not a household name, Weah finished top 5 in 6 different categories which had to help improve his visibility as a possible draftee.
• J'Mon Moore formerly of Mizzou cleared up any doubt about that may have existed regarding his athleticism by having the best raw bench and raw broad jump results of the entire WR Combine group.  His Achilles' Heel was his 40 time but if scouts look at his explosiveness metrics (broad and vertical jumps), he could  erase any doubts and cash in on improved draft position. 

Above Average Group Comments

The receivers finishing 6-10 above are all well known commodities in the NFL draft game, so one would expect to see them above.  However, numbers 11, 12 and 13 are receivers who I have not seen the same level of media coverage.  Each one could make a strong push between now and the draft to improve his status:

• Jaleel Scott former JUCO transfer to New Mexico State has been gaining attention over the last few months.  He's a big bodied receiver who is a smooth runner with nice hands.  He's a guy who is easy to root for as we approach the draft.
• Korey Robertson formerly of Southern Mississippi is someone on which I have a lot of work  to complete but I'm looking forward to it.  The former 2x All-State (MS) athlete was responsible for 50% of the Golden Eagles TD receptions last year so he will definitely require a solid look. 
• Davon Grayson formerly of ECU has had to fight back from several injuries over his college career that may impact his overall draft position.  Despite it all, he had one heck of a combine, showing out in the broad jump and the bench press, the latter very impressive as he was listed at about 175 lbs on various pre-Combine sources.  A high ROI efficiency player, watching his ridiculously fast feet on video has been a real treat.  If he can show he has beaten the injury bug, this man could be the steal of the draft. 

Shameless Self-Promotion!!!

Follow me on Twitter @boombearjr 

or at my Facebook page:  Boombearjr Football Analysis (also @boombearjr).

Continue to watch this space for more NFL Draft commentary. 

Post Combine Ballot

Once the Combine wraps up, we will start accepting ballots for the final DraftTwitter Top 100 aggregation through the week before the NFL player draft.  Please reach out to have a ballot (which is on an Excel online based spreadsheet that is quick and easy to use) by leaving a comment or emailing me at boombearfootballmail@gmail to have a ballot link forwarded to you.  

Under the Microscope - 2018 NFL Combine Offensive Line Testing

Unsung Heroes

The players the layperson would likely not pay  much attention to week in and week out during the football season are offensive linemen.  Sure, DEFENSIVE linemen get sacks or make crushing hits but it's the offensive lineman who have no sexy stats to make the average fan ooh and aah. 

Of course, the irony is the players most ignored are universally acknowledged by students of the game as pillars upon which your success or failure rests.  The 2018 NFL Player Combine held in Indianapolis has kicked off and the Offensive Line men have gone through the physical testing phase.  Based on the results here are the how the participants ranked (note, the agility tests are not considered in this exercise). 

1.  The numbers above are just that...numbers.  Young men have spent the majority of their lives working toward being invited to the NFL Player Combine but I can't imagine any amount of training could prepare them for this week.  So, the numbers are a nice way to screen out prospects who may be new to us but the ones we already know, we already know. 
2. "That guy didn't run the fastest 40 time, why is he ranked #1!" - The rankings above are adjusted for players body mass so they differ from the results posted. 
3. "Hey, where is What'shisface?" What'shisface likely did not participate in at least half of the events, so he was excluded from this exercise.

Highs and Lows

Adjusted 40

• Will Hernandez, the quickest lineman at the Combine.  I know, he ran a 5.15 40, which was 7th fastest time but adjusted for his size he was the quickest.  His "Quickness" number of 1.16 two standard deviations above average placing him in the alone in the "Superior" category for quickness.

Bold Green = Superior / Green = Outstanding / Bold Yellow= Above Average

• Brian O'Neill nailed the fastest 40 time for OL at 4.82 seconds, adjusted for size, he dips to just out side the top 10 at number 11. 
•  I'm sure the world knows about Orlando Brown's performance but, adjusted for size (about 7% above the average body mass) , his quickness was not the worst ...in fact, he wasn't even in the Poor performance (> 1 standard deviation below average) group which contained 7 players who, despite being below the group body mass average ran slower than average 40 times. 

Vertical Jump

• Scott Quessenberry showed off his explosiveness by posting an adjusted vertical score in the "superior" range. 
• FCS standout Skyler Phillips proved his invitation was justified by placing in the Outstanding performers group.

Bold Green = Superior / Green = Outstanding / Bold Yellow= Above Average

• Unfortunately for Orlando Brown, there is not enough adjusting to help his vertical of 19.5 inches and he finished last in terms of actual and adjusted. 

Bench Press

• Braden Smith, a pre-season top pick who has since seen his buzz fade a bit to a murmur is on the comeback trail, cranking out 35 reps at 225 lbs which, adjusted for body mass, put him in the Superior category all by himself. 
• Although big body mass OLs Smith, Hernandez and Nelson took the top 3 slots in bench press on an adjusted basis, skinny mini Sam Jones (body mass approximately 6% below the group average) placed in the Outstanding group.  

Bold Green = Superior / Green = Outstanding / Bold Yellow= Above Average

• It has long been stated that longer armed players are at a disadvantage because they have a longer way to drive the weight.  In this case, the data supports this:

• The blue line represents each OLs arm length (left access, in inches) compared to repetitions (right axis). As the arm length increases, repetitions decrease.  While this keeps in line with the conventional wisdom, it could simply be these particular longer armed players were not as strong as their shorter armed colleagues.

Broad Jump

The second measure of explosiveness, this will help provide an indication of how much "get off" a lineman can generate on the snap.  

• Kolton Miller is a "lightweight" by the OL group standards, about  5.25% less body mass than average however he jumped more than 16% above average, securing the top spot. 
• Is there something in the water at Westwood?  Miller's former UCLA teammate, Quessenberry is just behind him in 2nd place.  Kangaroo University is born!
• Hernandez, the largest man in the group based on body mass, hopped the group average 104 inches, catapulting himself to the 3rd spot. 

Bold Green = Superior / Green = Outstanding / Bold Yellow= Above Average

• The good news is, the group settled near the average so there were only 4 "poor" performers who were outside of 1 standard deviation from the average.  The bad news is, if I paid everyone could correctly give the name of one of the bottom dwellers, I would be a broke man.  

Wrapping Up

• THE GOOD - The most athletic OL based on this analysis is none other than former Idaho State LT, Skyler Phillips.  An All-American, it will be interesting to go back and check out some video footage of Phillips.
• THE BAD - Not everyone is good at taking tests.  Even the most brilliant people may have a hard time when it comes to proving the skills you know outside of the context of work.  A player who performs at the highest levels, can look like JAG pretty quickly. There are certain players who will be much maligned for the next few weeks over their disappointing Combine  performances, but the thin skin they develop from the talking heads will help them succeed at the next level. 
• THE UGLY - Based on the adjusted statistics, none of the big names made much of a splash in the workouts.  Quentin Nelson and Hernandez made it into the top five overall, but the field of top OL were hampered by injuries that limited participation. The good news it we have about 7 weeks to prepare. 

Shameless Self-Promotion!!!

Follow me on Twitter @boombearjr 

or at my Facebook page:  Boombearjr Football Analysis (also @boombearjr).

Continue to watch this space for more NFL Draft commentary. 

Post Combine Ballot

Once the Combine wraps up, we will start accepting ballots for the final DraftTwitter Top 100 aggregation through the week before the NFL player draft.  Please reach out to have a ballot (which is on an Excel online based spreadsheet that is quick and easy to use) by leaving a comment or emailing me at boombearfootballmail@gmail to have a ballot link forwarded to you.