As a lifelong Jets fan, I have to say this has been the most painful year in my memory. I think it's because this preseason, I felt there was a real outside chance to make the playoffs as the division champs. Think back to just after the last draft:
- Tom Brady abdicated the throne in New England and left either a rookie or journeyman to take the helm (this was pre-Cam).
- Miami was in the process of their own rebuild, potentially with a rookie QB coming off a significant injury.
- Buffalo would be tough, but Josh Allen is always good for 3 or 4 incomprehensible decisions a game and snatching one from them could have been the difference maker in the division.
- Jets were to have C.J. Mosley back, which would allow Jamal Adams to focus on the backend.
- Despite an underwhelming (if that's a word) free agency period , the Jets had what I felt was a solid draft with multiple players who could contribute early.
Fast forward to Week 6 of the season.
- The team is O-5.
- There are leaguewide questions about the suitability of Adam Gase as the head coach of the future for the Jets given his not-quite-groundbreaking game plans thus far.
- C.J Mosley enacted his right to opt out of the 2020 season (and all true fans stand behind that decision) and Adams was traded off for a king's ransom.
- Sam Darnold is hurt (again) and has not shown the type of play that would make any rational owner comfortable enough to extend a 9 figure long term contract.
- Many of the rookies have not been in service at all and the one rookie showing promise, the Left Tackle of the future Mekhi Becton, was further injured after being allowed to dress when he was clearly not able to contribute.
- And, in the latest indignity, Le'Veon Bell was cut for reasons that have not been clearly explained by Management. Seems he agreed (via Twitter "likes") with criticism of the Gase game planning - he, himself, never openly made any commentary regarding any game plan issue.
- This left Le'Veon free to sign with whomever he wanted for the season since the Jets were paying for it anyway - winner? The Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. Whom the Jets will play this season.
So why am I enthusiastic about the future? Put on your tin foil hat and follow me. Here is my forecast on what has to happen for the Jets to be competitive.
Is this a Massive Heel Turn by Joe Douglas?
Gase, in full Nero fashion, has taken a torch to the Jets. After being lukewarm on the Le'Veon Bell contract (one thing I actually agree with him on) Gase virtually refused to plan around the pro bowl RB's strengths. He wanted to bring in a 37 year old Frank Gore who, despite an incredible career, is nearing the end of his life on the football field as a player. And, he clearly lobbied to acquire his former Miami Dolphin Kalen Ballage for a 7th round pick only to see the transaction voided due to a fail physical! That didn't stop Gase who had Ballage picked up off the street only to cut him not a quarter into the season. And, despite all but calling Douglas a liar for not following through on his promise to make Adams a "Jet for life", it was only after the friction with Gase did we see the Jets push the button on a trade to get Adams out.
With the inexplicable release of Bell - a player who we had to pay no matter what and who was certainly going to be cut at the end of the season, it all came clear to me. Douglas is not asserting his power as GM to convince ownership to negate any of Gase's suggestions (remember, Gase does not work for Douglas, they each report to ownership directly) because he doesn't want to. Regardless of how bad things get, Douglas always has the colossal failure of Gase to point to and say, "it wasn't me.". So the worse the team is under Gase, the better for Douglas. Massive heal turn would be great where Douglas coordinates a coup so monumental ownership has no choice but to let Gase go.
I keep reading talking heads remark that Joe Douglas stands by and lets Gase make all these horrible, selfish decisions because they have such a great relationship. In an article on newyorkjets.com NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah (who worked with Douglas in Baltimore) said, "[Gase and Douglas] have a relationship going back to Chicago, they had a chance to know each other..." This has been the narrative recently in articles and on podcasts. Looking into it, in 2015 Gase followed Head Coach John Fox to Chicago to serve has his offensive coordinator, as he did in Denver. He stayed for exactly one season. That same year, Douglas left the Ravens' nest after 15 years under Ozzy Newsome to take the Director of College Scouting position with the Bears for exactly one year.
I have no professional experience in an NFL front office. Zero. But it makes no sense to me how the Director of College Scouting and the Offensive Coordinator would have any interaction on a team especially with them both just arriving and leaving at the same time. From my discussions with the few front office people I've had the chance to talk to, these guys are far too busy in their own silos to somehow get all chummy with guys in different departments. If they had been there years then, yeah, that might make sense. OC would want to talk with the scouts about what they are looking for in players for the next draft. But the time lines don't lead me to believe that Gase and Douglas would have had time to hang out in the break room trading stories.
This leads me to believe Douglas really has no extraordinary sense of loyalty to Gase. What it looks like to me is a guy who is standing back and allowing Gase to run roughshod so that when we have the final triggering event, Douglas can allow the entire house of cards to collapse on Gase, only. That way, Douglas would maintain credibility with the Brothers Johnson, have maximum leverage in selection of the next coach AND potentially have that coach report directly to him so this sort of thing never happens again.
Douglas cut his chops in the Newsome system where the GM is given complete control. As a first time GM, I'm sure he accepted the fact that he might not have that type of structure initially in the Jets organization. Yet. But staying next to Gase provides one heck of a "halo effect". When all is said and done, Joe should have all the cards to consolidate power and run his plan. But from the wreckage that is the Jets, what could possibly be his plan?
The Blueprint
Free Agency
As I've said before, I'm a normal guy who just likes football. I have had the opportunity to learn from some men with NFL front office and scouting experience but outside of that, I have the same insights as everyone else. But taking a look at the last couple of FA periods, it's clear Douglas is looking to capitalize on the current situation.
As far as the current season goes, you can see the death blow was delivered back in the Free Agency period of 2019. That's the year Christopher Johnson inexplicably allowed former GM Mike Maccagnan to blow through a record amount of money on the following contracts:
- Le'Veon Bell's $52.5M contract with $35M in guaranties. There is an old football adage about not signing running backs to big money contracts. Granted, Bell had a year off after holding out in Pittsburgh (which was not taken as a red flag) but the Jets felt strongly enough to pull the trigger despite Gase being vocal about not being on board. With no solutions on the long neglected offensive line, one could only assume the expectation was Bell would block for himself.
- Henry Anderson's $25.2M contract with $17M guarantied. I was a huge fan of Anderson coming out of Stanford but was not sure about such a big contract for a rotational guy who was injured so much in the past. This year he has been pretty invisible so far.
- Jamison Crowder's $28.5M contract with $17M guarantied is a tough one. He's the only player who showed any sort of heart and has attempted to live up to his contract. But for as much as he is the only shining star as of Week 6, in terms of guarantied wide receiver money, he is number 20 on the list. I've looked over his performance and in 2019 he was #39 in terms of total receiving yards and #106 overall in terms of Yards/Target. In his 5 seasons, he has yet to accumulate a 1,000 receiving yards campaign. So far in 2020 he is #22 in receiving years and # 30 in Y/T so, despite the horrible year the team is having, he might play to his contract value.
- C.J. Mosley's $85M, $51M guarantied contract is the crowning gem of the 2019 FA period. Mosley is a solid player but he has been injured since he arrived and the commitment is a bit much for me when you consider what the premium playoff teams will pay for certain positions compared to the worst performing teams (found here) . Playoff teams, on average, paid a premium on Linebackers but it was only 8% more than the worst teams. The Mosley contract is 24% more than next highest contract for an Inside Linebacker (Jaylon Smith of DAL). So the expected reward in terms of performance for that contract does not seem attainable (that is, Mosley would have to perform 3x better than the average playoff contender ILB).
So what's the point here? Cap space.
In his first Free Agency year as Jets GM, Douglas did not saddle the team with any contracts that would have a material impact on the 2021 cap years and beyond (with the exception of Center Connor McGovern). The Jets can part with certain contracts and really have SERIOUS firepower in the 2021 Free Agency market when the 2021 cap will be reduced to $176M. This means there will be fewer bidders out there for top players. Here are the top five teams in terms of projected cap space. I estimated the potential players in limbo due to cap savings so these figures will fluctuate as teams may rework some of the contracts to keep players.
Effective Cap Space = the max cap space that team will have when it signs at least 51 players to its roster for that season.
Assuming the cuts above, the Jets should have the most cap space. I've already heard many asking about the rationale of cutting Crowder and I would think his play this year will have a lot to do with if they keep him as is or cut. I can't say I know how Douglas evaluates but if there is any production based component, Crowder has a shot to justify his contract compared to the market.
The Jets clearly have an advantage over the rest of the AFC East in terms of fire power required to pick up FAs this coming year.
The Draft
The team is in a great position to add talent via the draft, currently with 10 selections and 5 in the first 3 rounds.
The AFC East will be active this draft with a total of 36 picks but the Jets and MIA both lead, each with 5 picks through the 3rd round. The Average Draft Position over the first three rounds for the Jets is second best in the division (based on final season records predicted by Draftsite.com).
We have a while before the college prospects shake out but if the Jets end up with the worst record, they would have the option to select the presumed #1 pick Trevor Lawrence, QB from Clemson University. Darnold's salary for 2021 is more than 98% guarantied so there is no savings for dumping him. Worst case you keep him and let him duke it out with Lawrence in training camp and, if it clicks for Sam, you can get better trade value for him.
We should not forget the Jets 2020 draft (reviewed
here ) has largely been put shelved so far this year. Douglas addressed each of the teams 5 major position needs with:
OT: Becton in on 51% of eligible snaps.
RB: Perine - 12%
WR: Mims - 0%
EDGE: Zuniga - 0%
Corner: Hall - 0%
The players with no snaps have been "dinged up" we have been told. OL Cameron Clark (0% snaps) has also spent time on the injured list and has fallen off the mainstream radar. By many accounts he is expected to be a future starter on the team. Once Clark and the other rookies are 100% and ready to participate, their contributions are likely to be important to the Jets' future success.
So with the war chest of draft picks AND the redshirt players waiting in the wings, the Jets are in a great position to acquire all the pieces to turn this ship around.
Conclusion
The Jets are really messed up. So messed up that it seems almost like it couldn't have been an accident. The Johnson Boys wanted to maintain control of operations and not simply be hands-off ownership so the GM and Coach each report to them. Ownership got their GM and Coach timelines screwed up by firing Todd Bowles but retaining Mike Maccagnan long enough to spend all the Free Agency money and strike out on our draft (remember the colossal Jachai Polite fiasco?). Now maybe it's time for them to allow the GM to run the house and get out of the way.
