Top Five WR Performances at the 2017 NFL Player Combine

Who Won?

The NFL Combine is truly an "Everyone Can Win" scenario.  Each entrant can increase his draft standing with a noteworthy performance.  It's simple to say John Ross broke the record so he won the 40 yard dash but what about players who performed well across the board at all the events?  And how do we compare the smaller, more nimble receivers to the larger power wide outs? Given all the factors, which wide receiver really "won" the Combine?


The Top Five

To appear in the top five, participants needed to run the 40 and hit the bench.  In addition to ranking their 40 yard dash time, their Vertical, Broad jump and Short Shuttle were all ranked as performed as well as adjusted according to body density (weight/height), along with adjusted Bench.

The list below is not necessarily reflective of my opinion of future success of any receiver; for player opinions, please see the DraftTwitter Top 100 article series.

Thanks to Marcus Armstrong of Mockdraftable.com for the web charts, data and comparable players presented.

5.  Isaiah (Zay) Jones - East Carolina: Height: 74"; Weight: 201 lbs Body Density 2.72 lbs/in DOB: 3/30/95.
Metrics:
Forty time;  4.45 seconds (12/51)
Bench Weight moved to Body Density: 1243 (9/47)
Vertical to Body Height: His 36.5 inch vertical was 49.3% of his height (11/50)
Broad Jump of 133 inches which, when his body density was factored in a performance factor of 6.6% (10/50)
Short Shuttle of 4.01 seconds (3/42).

Short shuttle adjusted for body density resulted in a performance factor of 1.48 (12/42).

Comparables: Muneer Moore 83.8%, Rashaun Woods 79.4%, Tai Streets 79.2%

4.  Jerome Lane - Akron: Height: 74"; Weight: 226 lbs Body Density 3.05 lbs/in DOB: 3/9/1996.
Metrics:
Forty time;  4.60 seconds (38/51)
Bench Weight moved to Body Density: 1179 (13/47)
Vertical to Body Height: His 35 inch vertical was 47.3% of his height (24/50)
Broad Jump of 125 inches which, when his body density was factored in a performance factor of 12.2% (3/50)
Short Shuttle of 4.12 seconds (7/42).
Short shuttle adjusted for body density resulted in a performance factor of 1.35 (1/42)

Comparables: Dez White 88.9%, Chauncey Stovall 88%, Rod Gardner 82.5%

3.  Amara Darboh - Michigan: Height: 74'  Weight: 214 Body Density 2.89 lbs/in DOB: 2/1/94.
Metrics:
Forty time;  4.45 seconds (12/51)
Bench Weight moved to Body Density: 1323 (8/47)
Vertical to Body Height: His 36 inch vertical was 48.6% of his height (14/50)
Broad Jump of 124 inches which, when his body density was factored in a performance factor of 5.5% (15/50)
Did not participate in Short Shuttle.

Comparables: DeVante Parker 89.9%, Justin Blackman 87.1%, Josh Gordon 86.4%

2.  Robert Davis Georgia State: Height: 75'  Weight: 219 Body Density 2.92 lbs/in DOB: 4/2/95.
Metrics:
Forty: 4.44 seconds (9/51)
Bench Weight moved to Body Density: 1464 (4/47)
Vertical to Body Height:  Did not participate.
Broad Jump of 136 inches which, when his body density was factored in a performance factor of 16.4% (1/50)
Short Shuttle of 4.28 seconds (24/42).
Short shuttle adjusted for body density resulted in a performance factor of 1.47 (9/42).

Comparables:  Ricardo Louis 86.3%, Andre Johnson 79.3%, Jon Baldwin 77.7%

1.  Chris Godwin - Penn State: Height: 73"; Weight: 209 lbs Body Density 2.86 lbs/in.  DOB: 2/27/96.
Metrics:
Forty time;  4.42 seconds (5/51)
Bench Weight moved to Body Density: 1493 (2/47)
Vertical to Body Height: His 36 inch vertical was 49.3% of his height (12/50)
Broad Jump of 126 inches which, when his body density was factored in a performance factor of 6.1% (11/50)
Short Shuttle of 4.00 seconds (1/42).
Short shuttle adjusted for body density resulted in a performance factor of 1.40 (3/42).

Comparables:  Arman Shields 86.4%,  Andre Caldwell 80.3% , Chad Johnson 80.3% 

 So, based on overall performance and adjustment for density, Chris Godwin is clearly the top athlete.  Also, his comparables are very encouraging (Shields, who never played due to injury after being drafted by the Raiders, notwithstanding).  Hopefully, his Combine performance will not just improve his draft position (meaning more $$ for Godwin) but also prove an indicator of future on field success which would help secure the role of analytics in football general management.



Other Combine Superlatives - Receivers 

Tallest - Ricky Seals-Jones, Texas A&M  6'5"
Shortest - Isaiah McKenzie, Georgia 5'7"

Heaviest - Billy Brown, Shepherd 255 lbs.
Lightest - Isaiah McKenzie

Highest Density (Weight/Height) : Billy Brown 3.36
Lowest Density:  Dede Westbrook 2.47

Fastest 40 Yard Time:  John Ross: 4.22 seconds
Slowest 40 Yard Time: Darreus Rogers: 4.93 seconds (Four offensive linemen recorded faster times).

Bench Press Most Reps:  Billy Brown 23
Lifted Most Weight to Body Weight:

1. Curtis Samuel lifted 20.66x his weight.
2. Chris Godwin lifted 20.45x his weight.
3. Speedy Noil lifted 20.35x his weight.

Lifted Lowest Weight to Body Weight:

1. Darreus Rogers lifted 8.33x his body weight.
2. Quincy Adeboyejo lifted 9.14x his weight.
3. Shelton Gibson lifted 9.42x his weight.

Highest Vertical Jump:  Speedy Noil jumped 43.5".
Highest Vertical to Height Ratios:

1. Speedy Noil jumped 61.3% of his standing height.
2. Malachi Dupre jumped 41" or 55.4% of  his height.
3. Isaiah McKenzie jumped 36" or 53.7% of his height

Shortest Vertical Jump:  Darreus Rogers jumped 26.5".
Lowest Vertical to Height Ratios:

1. Darreus Rogers jumped 36.3% of his height
2. Ricky Seals-Jones jumped 28" or 36.4%  of his height
3. Billy Brown jumped 29" or 38.2% of his height. 

Longest Broad Jump:  Robert Davis jumped 136". 

Shortest Broad Jump:  Drew Morgan, Stacy Coley and Darreus Rogers tied at 112".

Fastest Short Shuttle: Ryan Switzer and Chris Godwin tied at 4.00 seconds.

Slowest Short Shuttle: Jesus "Bobo" Wilson ran 4.57 seconds.

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NFL Combine Day 1 - Comparing Height Weight Measurements

Big or Small?

The Earth seemed to wobble on its axis when Leonard Fournette's 240 lbs weight hit Social Media. Immediately, the chatter began: "Too big!"  "Running Back X was bigger and ran for 1,000 yards" "If he runs a 4.45, I will  (fill in the blank)."  Obviously, any data point without context can be misleading.  But how do we compare players based on weight?

Body Mass Density

Obviously a 5'5' 190 lbs body builder looks very different compared to a 6'3" 190 lbs volleyball player. Body mass is a simple way to compare NFL prospect positions to see who is larger.

 

Name	Position	School	Height	Weight	Density	To Pos Avg
Fournette, Leonard	RB	LSU	72	240	3.33	9.52%	22.8
Perine, Samaje	RB	Oklahoma	71	233	3.28	8.09%	18.9
Shell, Rushel	RB	West Virginia	70	227	3.24	6.99%	15.9
Foreman, D'Onta	RB	Texas	72	233	3.24	6.80%	15.8
Hood, Elijah	RB	North Carolina	72	232	3.22	6.40%	14.8
Conner, James	RB	Pittsburgh	73	233	3.19	5.50%	12.8
Clement, Corey	RB	Wisconsin	70	220	3.14	4.03%
Smith, De'Veon	RB	Michigan	71	223	3.14	3.97%
Henderson, De'Angelo	RB	Coastal Carolina	67	208	3.10	2.85%
McNichols, Jeremy	RB	Boise St.	69	214	3.10	2.75%
Hunt, Kareem	RB	Toledo	70	216	3.09	2.26%
Kamara, Alvin	RB	Tennessee	70	214	3.06	1.34%
McGuire, Elijah	RB	Louisiana-Lafayette	70	214	3.06	1.34%
Carson, Christopher	RB	Oklahoma St.	72	218	3.03	0.39%
Redding, Devine	RB	Indiana	68	205	3.01	-0.05%
Jones, Aaron	RB	Texas-El Paso	69	208	3.01	-0.05%
Cook, Dalvin	RB	Florida St.	70	210	3.00	-0.54%
Mack, Marlon	RB	South Florida	71	213	3.00	-0.54%
Ogunbowale, Dare	RB	Wisconsin	71	213	3.00	-0.54%
Hill, Brian	RB	Wyoming	73	219	3.00	-0.54%
Gallman, Wayne	RB	Clemson	72	215	2.99	-1.00%
Dayes, Matt	RB	N.C. State	69	205	2.97	-1.52%
Williams, Joe	RB	Utah	71	210	2.96	-1.97%
Williams, Jamaal	RB	BYU	72	212	2.94	-2.43%
Davis, Justin	RB	USC	73	208	2.85	-5.85%
McCaffrey, Christian	RB	Stanford	71	202	2.85	-6.01%	-12.1
Logan, T.J.	RB	North Carolina	69	196	2.84	-6.18%	-12.1
Williams, Stanley	RB	Kentucky	67	190	2.84	-6.36%	-12.1
Thomas, Jahad	RB	Temple	70	190	2.71	-11.12%	-21.1
Cohen, Tarik	RB	North Carolina A&T	66	179	2.71	-11.21%	-20.1
Pumphrey, Donnel	RB	San Diego St.	68	176	2.59	-16.53%	-29.1

•  

Yellow Bold = Greater than 1 standard deviation above the average.

Bold Green = Within 1 standard deviation above the mean.

Plain Yellow = Within 1 standard deviation below the mean.

Plain Text = Less than 1 standard deviation below the mean. 

Fournette's density is almost 10% than the average 2017 NFL Combine RB.  If he had the Body Mass Density of the average RB, he would have to cut almost 23 lbs.

Christian McCaffrey is 6.01% less than  the average Combine RB. He would have to put on about 12 lbs to be average.  

This is not to say that either would be a more effective player at that weight,; this metric is simply a way to gauge how much larger one player is to another. Keep in mind, this analysis does not consider body or frame type,  but simply compares a player to his position group at the Combine. 

 For certain groups, the Combine Position Group average is not in line with the density for the comparable highly productive/successful NFL position group.

The table below breaks out the average for each group and the standard deviation based on numbers on the NFL Combine website (as of this writing, only OL and RBs have been measured):

POSITION	AVERAGE	Std Dev	+ 1 SD	- 1 SD
DT	4.07	0.25	4.32	3.81
OT	4.00	0.22	4.22	3.78
DE	3.48	0.18	3.66	3.30
RB	3.02	0.17	3.19	2.85
WR	2.73	0.17	2.90	2.56
S	2.84	0.14	2.98	2.70
CB	2.64	0.14	2.78	2.51
LB	3.21	0.13	3.35	3.08
OL	4.21	0.13	4.34	4.08
OG	4.13	0.13	4.26	4.00
DL	3.39	0.13	3.52	3.26
TE	3.26	0.12	3.38	3.14
QB	2.95	0.10	3.05	2.85
DB	2.72	0.08	2.80	2.64
C	3.99	0.06	4.06	3.93
FB	3.28	0.02	3.30	3.25

• The Defensive Tackle group is the most variant in terms of player density with the highest standard deviatoin. 
• Of the larger NFL Combine groups. the QBs have the lowest Standard Deviation, thus that group is the most similar in terms of density. 

(Note: Although the DB, DL and OL groups could be grouped into the appropriate subcategories  such as CB, S, OT, C, OG, DT or DE, in keeping with the model used in Indianapolis, this analysis keeps each category separate.)

Please return to this blog for more articles through NFL Combine 2017.

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