NFL Combine Day 1 - Comparing Height Weight Measurements

Big or Small?

The Earth seemed to wobble on its axis when Leonard Fournette's 240 lbs weight hit Social Media. Immediately, the chatter began: "Too big!"  "Running Back X was bigger and ran for 1,000 yards" "If he runs a 4.45, I will  (fill in the blank)."  Obviously, any data point without context can be misleading.  But how do we compare players based on weight?

Body Mass Density

Obviously a 5'5' 190 lbs body builder looks very different compared to a 6'3" 190 lbs volleyball player. Body mass is a simple way to compare NFL prospect positions to see who is larger.

 

Name	Position	School	Height	Weight	Density	To Pos Avg
Fournette, Leonard	RB	LSU	72	240	3.33	9.52%	22.8
Perine, Samaje	RB	Oklahoma	71	233	3.28	8.09%	18.9
Shell, Rushel	RB	West Virginia	70	227	3.24	6.99%	15.9
Foreman, D'Onta	RB	Texas	72	233	3.24	6.80%	15.8
Hood, Elijah	RB	North Carolina	72	232	3.22	6.40%	14.8
Conner, James	RB	Pittsburgh	73	233	3.19	5.50%	12.8
Clement, Corey	RB	Wisconsin	70	220	3.14	4.03%
Smith, De'Veon	RB	Michigan	71	223	3.14	3.97%
Henderson, De'Angelo	RB	Coastal Carolina	67	208	3.10	2.85%
McNichols, Jeremy	RB	Boise St.	69	214	3.10	2.75%
Hunt, Kareem	RB	Toledo	70	216	3.09	2.26%
Kamara, Alvin	RB	Tennessee	70	214	3.06	1.34%
McGuire, Elijah	RB	Louisiana-Lafayette	70	214	3.06	1.34%
Carson, Christopher	RB	Oklahoma St.	72	218	3.03	0.39%
Redding, Devine	RB	Indiana	68	205	3.01	-0.05%
Jones, Aaron	RB	Texas-El Paso	69	208	3.01	-0.05%
Cook, Dalvin	RB	Florida St.	70	210	3.00	-0.54%
Mack, Marlon	RB	South Florida	71	213	3.00	-0.54%
Ogunbowale, Dare	RB	Wisconsin	71	213	3.00	-0.54%
Hill, Brian	RB	Wyoming	73	219	3.00	-0.54%
Gallman, Wayne	RB	Clemson	72	215	2.99	-1.00%
Dayes, Matt	RB	N.C. State	69	205	2.97	-1.52%
Williams, Joe	RB	Utah	71	210	2.96	-1.97%
Williams, Jamaal	RB	BYU	72	212	2.94	-2.43%
Davis, Justin	RB	USC	73	208	2.85	-5.85%
McCaffrey, Christian	RB	Stanford	71	202	2.85	-6.01%	-12.1
Logan, T.J.	RB	North Carolina	69	196	2.84	-6.18%	-12.1
Williams, Stanley	RB	Kentucky	67	190	2.84	-6.36%	-12.1
Thomas, Jahad	RB	Temple	70	190	2.71	-11.12%	-21.1
Cohen, Tarik	RB	North Carolina A&T	66	179	2.71	-11.21%	-20.1
Pumphrey, Donnel	RB	San Diego St.	68	176	2.59	-16.53%	-29.1

•  

Yellow Bold = Greater than 1 standard deviation above the average.

Bold Green = Within 1 standard deviation above the mean.

Plain Yellow = Within 1 standard deviation below the mean.

Plain Text = Less than 1 standard deviation below the mean. 

Fournette's density is almost 10% than the average 2017 NFL Combine RB.  If he had the Body Mass Density of the average RB, he would have to cut almost 23 lbs.

Christian McCaffrey is 6.01% less than  the average Combine RB. He would have to put on about 12 lbs to be average.  

This is not to say that either would be a more effective player at that weight,; this metric is simply a way to gauge how much larger one player is to another. Keep in mind, this analysis does not consider body or frame type,  but simply compares a player to his position group at the Combine. 

 For certain groups, the Combine Position Group average is not in line with the density for the comparable highly productive/successful NFL position group.

The table below breaks out the average for each group and the standard deviation based on numbers on the NFL Combine website (as of this writing, only OL and RBs have been measured):

POSITION	AVERAGE	Std Dev	+ 1 SD	- 1 SD
DT	4.07	0.25	4.32	3.81
OT	4.00	0.22	4.22	3.78
DE	3.48	0.18	3.66	3.30
RB	3.02	0.17	3.19	2.85
WR	2.73	0.17	2.90	2.56
S	2.84	0.14	2.98	2.70
CB	2.64	0.14	2.78	2.51
LB	3.21	0.13	3.35	3.08
OL	4.21	0.13	4.34	4.08
OG	4.13	0.13	4.26	4.00
DL	3.39	0.13	3.52	3.26
TE	3.26	0.12	3.38	3.14
QB	2.95	0.10	3.05	2.85
DB	2.72	0.08	2.80	2.64
C	3.99	0.06	4.06	3.93
FB	3.28	0.02	3.30	3.25

• The Defensive Tackle group is the most variant in terms of player density with the highest standard deviatoin. 
• Of the larger NFL Combine groups. the QBs have the lowest Standard Deviation, thus that group is the most similar in terms of density. 

(Note: Although the DB, DL and OL groups could be grouped into the appropriate subcategories  such as CB, S, OT, C, OG, DT or DE, in keeping with the model used in Indianapolis, this analysis keeps each category separate.)

Please return to this blog for more articles through NFL Combine 2017.

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