New NFL Draft 2019 Football Film Fight - Volume III: Quarterbacks

Let's Face it, Practical is Boring!

I've provided evidence that the best bet in the NFL draft is to go for safeties and guards...you will get a lot of first year production out of those players and they have fairly low bust potential.  Conversely,  three positions that are high draft risk/reward  plays are the most exciting - running back, defensive end and of course, quarterback.  Because of the excitement the QB  position generates when it comes to draft day, it would make sense to take a few moments and look at each player and provide a thorough analysis.  But why make sense when we can have them duke it out in a Football Film Fight!

The First Rule of Football Film Fight...

Taking the Top 15 quarterbacks listed on www.drafttek.com we watch 3 games (preferably all within the last 2 seasons) from the #15 and #14 QBs and after viewing, we send one home and one to the next round.  The #13 player steps up and the process repeats until we have a winner.  

For the QB Football Film Fight, the contestants will not be evaluated against a structured set of metrics but we will attempt to assess, based on viewing of the selected footage alone, player which player looks to be the most pro ready. 

Enough with the chat...let's get it on!

SD represents "Simple Density" or Weight/Height; orange highlight indicates beyond 1 standard deviation from the mean. 

Round One: #15 Stick vs. #14 McSorley

Stick vs. Iowa 2016, SDSU 2018 and Illinois State 2018 - Excellent moving through the pocket to extend plays.   Fast but he will need to learn to slide more.  Keeps his eyes down field and will hang in to the last second. Didn't miss a lot of gimme throws.


 McSorley vs. Ohio State 2017, Iowa 2018 and Washington 2018 - Would like to see more consistency in throwing to the flat; depth assessment concerns.  Better throwing to a man than to a spot. Very quick. Wish we could have seen him exert more control over the offense.

Decision: Stick - Like the way he hangs in the pocket and can "feel" pressure.

#15 Stick vs. 13 Thorson

Thorson vs.Penn St. 2017, Notre Dame 2018 and Purdue 2018 - Textbook progression footwork early on (relaxed a bit in 2018).  Didn't see a lot of mistakes in his decision making; knew where to go with the ball based on matchups.  Can float the ball a bit at times.  Definitely not fleeter of foot than the prior two.

Decision:  Thorson - Going in, I thought Stick would last a lot longer but based on the games watched, Thorson is more pro ready.

#13 Thorson vs. #12 Fitzgerald

Fitzgerald vs. Georgia 2017, LSU 2018 and Alabama 2018 - Shaky vs. UGA early, throwing with his shoulder only; smoothed out the kinks and was solid in terms of zip and accuracy.  Under pressure, does not set, just throws with his arm only...composure issues?  He can run.  Would like to see him check out of a play or improvise when situations to exploit the defense arise.

Decision: Thorson - Fitz will need to work on composure under pressure.  Sometimes you take a sack and not throw an INT. 

#13 Thorson vs. #11 Minshew

Minshew vs. Memphis 2017 (@ ECU), USC 2018 and Washington 2018 - Whips the ball with his shoulder; how long can it hold up under that stress? Stare downs lead to a couple of picks. Quickest release so far. Inconsistent throwing motion led to inconsistent accuracy? Would like to take back a few throws made under pressure, I'm sure. 

Decision: Thorson -  Consistency will need to be a priority for Minshew's pre-draft work.

#13 Thorson vs. #10 Stidham

Stidham vs. Alabama 2017, Washington 2018 and Texas A&M 2018 - One word...SLIDE!  Nice feel in the pocket. Hangs in as long as possible to let the play develop. Not afraid to throw the ball away when nothing there. Learned to slide - how about that! Fairly steady under duress.  Fires the ball with velocity.  Nice touch on screens. 

Decision:  Stidham -  A lot of big time decisions and throws in the footage watched.  Unflappable and used his talent well. 

#10 Stidham vs. #9 Finley

Finley vs. BYU 2015 (@Boise St), Clemson 2018 and Florida State 2018  - Dude has had a long college campaign starting at BSU.  Has to get the ball out sooner, too many deflections as WR waits for ball. Picked apart FSU in the short game. 

Decision: Stidham - Finley's performance suffered against Clemson and their players are as pro ready as any so he will certainly want to review this game in his film work.

#10 Stidham vs. #8 Ta'amu

Ta'amu vs. Kentucky 2017, Auburn 2018 and Alabama 2018 - NFL scouts will likely want to see more velocity on his throws. Receivers so wide open hard to evaluate at times. Out routes take a long time to get there. Nothing wrong with throwing the ball away. Did a good job keeping his cool amid the Bama havoc created in the pocket. Not sure if his OC is too strict but passed up a lot of good open options for covered primary receivers.

Decision:  Stidham - He can run and can hit open receivers, but if there is a way to develop pocket "feel" it would help.  

#10 Stidham vs. #7 Jackson

Jackson vs. FAU 2017, Ohio 2018 and Troy 2018 - Dude is tough to stop on goal line QB sneaks. Flings the ball long effortlessly.  Stares down sometimes.  Short and deep routes look good, intermediate routes not as consistent.   Dude can run. Will need to learn when to move off the primary and check down; has to take what the defense gives him. 

Decision: Stidham - Jackson has tools and if he can get in a good situation to mentor under a veteran for a "redshirt" rookie year in the NFL, he will be one to watch.  Right now, Stidham's game is more polished.

#10 Stidham vs. #6 Grier

Grier vs. Virginia Tech 2017, Iowa State 2018 and Texas 2018 - Mountaineers have some weapons on offense.  Lots of YAC explosive plays from quick dump offs, hard to assess his contributions.  Did not see a lot of improvisation out of structure in the selected games so not sure how well he handles those situations.

Decision: Stidham - Some nice moments, but I didn't see Grier command his offense at the level of Stidham.

#10 Stidham vs. #5 Rypien

Rypien vs. Oregon 2017, Troy 2018 and San Diego State 2018 - Nice ball placement. He puts the ball where he wants to put it.  Eyes are downfield, yeah, but has to have feel in the pocket to slide or roll out and avoid the huge hits he takes.  Has to cut down on the unforced errors (LV Bowl).  Needs to find rhythm on deep ball.  Throws into a lot of double coverage.

Decision: Stidham - Rypien can deliver the ball but he will need to work on the consistency and decision-making.

#10 Stidham vs. #4 Jones

Jones vs. Miami 2017, Army 2018 and Clemson 2018 - Very accurate; he can drop it in the bucket, that's for sure.  Throws with zip. Can run to pick up a first or block on a reverse; doesn't mind getting hands dirty. Amazing patience in the pocket, but concerned about his internal clock and "feel" in a collapsing pocket.  His pooch punt adds some excitement on 4th downs.

Decision:  Stidham - This was tough.  Jones can place the ball anywhere he wants in a clean pocket but I would like to see him improve his decision making when he faces pressure.

#10 Stidham vs. #3 Lock

Lock vs. Auburn 2017, Georgia 2018 and Kentucky 2018 - Lots of dinks and dunks like Grier.  Coming up short on deep routes. Keeps his eyes downfield.  Can make intermediate throws as well but can force circus attempts by receivers.

Decision: Stidham - Lock is getting a lot of media support so he stands to cash in on his draft position wherever that may be but from the games viewed, his bread and butter is YAC.

#10 Stidham vs. #2 Murray

Murray vs. West Virginia 2018, Alabama 2018 and Texas 2018 - Very accurate. Obviously don't expect to see him run in the NFL as much as he did in college.  On option plays will want to make the defender commit before making his decision. Dude can fling it. 

Decision: Stidham - Murray was an unbelievable college player but it's not easy to anticipate how his skill set will translate at the next level.  I'm a conservative GM and don't like to gamble on skill positions. 

#10 Stidham vs. #1 Haskins

Haskins vs. Penn State 2018, TCU 2018 and Michigan 2018 - Not a threat to run every down, that's for sure.  Love the accuracy.   Dude can place the ball anywhere he likes. Not sure there were any unforced errors of consequence.

Decision: Haskins - I mean, he's just really what you want.   Hard worker, leader, driven.  Performer. Winner.  He is the best QB prospect this year.

QB "Draftable"List

Based on the Film Fight results, here are the players that would be on the Big Board.  You know I love going back to the high school days as validation of the current prospect and the determination that got each of these men to this point is evident in the following videos.  Enjoy.

Dwayne Haskins

Jarrett Stidham

Clayton Thorson

Daniel Jones

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You Know You're Smarter than the Talking Heads...Prove It!

The 3rd Annual People's Top 100 survey is our right now!  It's 100% free and 97.3% fun (but 2.7% frustrating)!  

Just leave a comment or shoot me an email to  boombearfootballmail@gmail.com for an email link to the online Excel worksheet form with dropdown lists for ease of use!   Check out last year's 2nd Annual Top 100 list here!

No pressure, just have fun.

The Real Reason Kansas City Lost to New England

No One Player is to Blame

When the Chiefs lost to the Patriots in their home stadium last week, it didn't take long for the fingers to start pointing.

Missed calls, inability to make key stops on defense and lining up in the neutral zone all got their fair share of representation in the Blame-a-polooza.  But when we look inside the numbers, what do we see? The Krumholz Axiom, "Figures Don't Lie, But Liars Figure" has not let us down yet.  Let's look at the numbers...and get beyond the chatter.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

When looking at the 2018 statistical performance, here is how New England fared:

• On Offense, they generated 7.42 yards per pass attempt, 8th in the league and 4.26 yards per rush, which ranked 20th.
• On Defense, they gave up 6.52 yards per pass attempt, again for 8th in the league and 5.07 which was shockingly, the worst measure in for the NFL in 2018.

Based on the above, their strength is passing the ball on offense and pass defense while their weaknesses are running the ball and stopping the run.
You don't need to be a Lombardi to figure out how to beat the 2018 New England Patriots:  Stop their passing game and prioritize your run game. 

In their 5 losses this year, that is exactly how they got beat, per the table below:

In each of their losses they were not effective in either of their strengths and had their weaknesses exploited. 

Now let's see what the Chiefs did...

While the Pats' passing game was held in check being out gained 7.57 yards to 8.03 yards given up, the difference was the Pats overcoming their weaknesses by outgaining the Chiefs on the ground, gaining 3.74 yards per rush and only giving up 3.42 yards. 

What's most striking is the Chiefs were a pretty good rushing team (I had them 6th in the league for rush/attempt rate and 8th for rush defense) but it looks like they didn't incorporate the run into their game plan the way other teams who beat the Patriots did (on average, they ran the ball 27.8 times compared to the paltry 12 times the Chiefs toted the rock).   SAD!

...it was the coaches...

Will be re-watching the game to see what happened in terms of the run game plan but given the preparation for which the Rams' coaching staff is becoming known, don't be surprised when you see Gurley and Anderson pounding the ball 20-30 times combined Superbowl Sunday.

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You Know You're Smarter than the Talking Heads...Prove It!

The 3rd Annual People's Top 100 survey is our right now!  It's 100% free and 97.3% fun!  

Just leave a comment or shoot me an email to  boombearfootballmail@gmail.com for an email link to the online Excel worksheet form with dropdown lists for ease of use!   Check out last year's 2nd Annual Top 100 list here!

No pressure, just have fun.

NFL Draft 2019 Football Film Fight - Defensive Ends

Tis the Season

Christmas comes but once a year, but the NFL draft is a year round event.  With just the collegiate all star games remaining, it's as good a time as any to kick of the player evaluation process with a side by side comparison of the top prospects based on review of game footage.  

This is For My Homie

The Defensive End position has been abandoned by Draftniks.  The untimely death was caused by the migration of the DE and OLB into something called the "EDGE" position; this is really messing with old dudes like me.  Nonetheless, we will adapt and present the "EDGE" players with the assumption that, despite being a mish mosh of two positions, we will evaluate them for their overall prowess not necessarily evaluating based on any prototypical position expectations.  For this piece we are looking at Defensive Ends.

Let the Football Film Fight begin!

The rules are simple:  We line up the top prospects for a given position (with a possible wild card or two of my choice thrown into the mix) and randomly select a player.  We watch and evaluate his game based on no more than 3 video viewings.  We select another player at random and view 3 of his games.  One has to go.  The survivor takes on the next contestant in a head to head elimination round and so on until we end up with the Battle Royale winner!

Let's take the top 15 Drafttek Sports Information "EDGE" rushers (DE) and pit them head to head in reverse order to see who emerges victorious.   FYI - There will be a FFF for Outside Linebackers at a later date, so don't miss those "EDGE" rushers. 

Round One:  #15 Christian Miller, Alabama vs. #14 Jalen Jelks, Oregon

Miller vs. Arkansas 2016, Ole Miss 2018 and Missouri 2018 - Marginal improvement over the viewing period although his ability to disengage blockers was better early.  Will need to work on quickness at the next level.  Able to drop into coverage.  

Jelks vs. Arizona 2017, Washington State 2018 and Boise State 2018 - Eyes in the backfield at all times.  Did not see the impact I thought I would.  Will need to improve quickness for efficacy in the league.

Decision:  Jelks - Did not see the traits I expected to see from Miller, being son of an NFL veteran (Corey Miller).  Jelks showed more power and awareness. 

Round Two  #14 Jelks vs. #13 Ben Banogu, Texas Christian

Banogu vs. Baylor 2017, Texas 2018  and Oklahoma 2018 - Quickness is an issue he will need to address or his 3 cone showing could hurt his draft stock. Needs to hurdle cut blocks. Not a sideline to sideline guy.

Decision:  Jelks  - Double J won more individual battles and, although the production was about the same, he had more success controlling his man.

Round Three:  #14 Jelks vs. #12 Chase Winovich, Michigan

Winovich vs. Ohio State 2017, SMU 2018 and Penn State 2018 - Doesn't quit.  Nice punch off the line.  Could add a move or two to his repertoire. Has to set the edge; can't get sucked inside. Sideline to sideline.

Decision:  Winovich  - Gives a lot of effort out there showing more quickness than the prior candidates. 

Round Four:  #12 Winovich vs. #11Wyatt Ray, Boston College

Ray vs. Notre Dame 2017, Virginia Tech 2017 and Wake Forest 2018 - Will need to work on explosiveness and decisiveness. 

Decision: Winovich - Overall, Winovich excelled in every aspect of play. Ray is listed as earning all-state honors his senior year in high school in Florida so expectations were high.  

Round Five:  #12 Winovich vs. #10 D'Andre Walker, Georgia

Walker vs. Auburn 2017, Alabama 2018 and Kentucky 2018 - Quickest candidate so far. Eyes in the backfield. Fourth quarter fatigue or quit in the upset loss to Auburn?  Can get enveloped by blockers.

Decision:  Winovich - Despite being named the Bulldogs' Defensive MVP for this past season, Walker did not match the consistent level of intensity of Winovich. 

Round Six:  #12 Winovich vs. #9 Austin Bryant, Clemson

Bryant vs. NC State 2017, Duke 2018 and Boston College 2018 - Needs to shed blocks.  Has nice quickness. Finally impacted the game late vs. BC. 

Decision: Winovich - Did not see very much impact from Bryant in the games viewed much to my surprise.

Round Seven:  #12 Winovich vs. #8 Shareef  Miller, Penn State

Miller vs. Iowa 2018, Pittsburgh 2018 and Appalachian State 2018 Would like to see him use his arms more to shed blocks and reduce getting driven off the ball. Some quickness there. Takes appropriate pursuit angles. 

Decision:  Winovich - Did not see Miller take over a game like you need to see at this level.  

Round Eight:  #12 Winovich vs. #7 Joe Jackson, Miami

Jackson vs. Wisconsin 2017, LSU 2018 and Florida State 2018 - Gets off the ball.  Effectively uses club and swim moves to gain position.  Eyes always in the backfield. Can consistently shed blockers to make tackles. Fights through double teams.  Legs drive through contact.

Decision:  Jackson - Even if he doesn't win this Football Film Fight, you want him on your team.

Round Nine:  #7 Jackson vs. #6 Anthony Nelson, Iowa

Nelson vs. Miami (OH) 2016, Iowa State 2018, Penn State 2018 - Gets off the ball without being quick.  Strong - fought off a double team for a sack. Uses his arms well to shed blockers.  

Decision: Jackson - Nelson has proven himself effective but Jackson is the clear choice between the two.

Round Ten: #7 Jackson vs. #5 Jaylon Ferguson, Louisiana Tech

Ferguson vs. WKU 2016, Mississippi State 2018 and Florida Atlantic 2018 - 2016, Locks up with blocker when he should use his long arms to keep distance. 2018 games show improvement over 2016 footage in terms of shedding, eyes in the backfield and pursuit off the play. Shows coachability as he has grown into a much more complete player.

Decision:  Jackson - Ferguson has talent, but doesn't play with instinct yet.  Jackson remains the most impactful player in the survey.

Round Eleven:  #7 Jackson vs. #4 Oshane Ximines, Old Dominion

Ximines vs. Liberty 2018, Marshall 2018 and East Carolina 2018 - Eyes in the  backfield but sometimes I'm not sure what he sees. Wrestles instead of sheds a bit too much. Nice Deflection/INT vs. Marshall. A couple of moves in his toolbox. Nice leg drive...should test well at the Combine. 

Decision: Jackson - Ximines has huge upside in the right system but Jackson is ready now. 

Round Twelve:  #7 Jackson vs. #3 Montez Sweat, Mississippi State

Sweat vs. Arkansas 2017, Alabama 2018 and Kansas State 2018 - Uses arms to keep blockers from getting into his body. Reaches for tackles.  Quick off the ball. Can generate a lot of power.  

Decision: Jackson - Closest match up yet; with increased intensity, Sweat will be a force in the league. 

Round Thirteen:  #7 Jackson vs. #2 Clelin Ferrell

Ferrell vs. NC State 2017, Texas A&M 2018 and Boston College 2018 - Uses long arms well in shedding blockers.  Can lose track of the ball and follow the fake.  He can drop into coverage. Plays with intensity.

Decision:  Jackson - This was tough but in the end, defenses have to worry about the entire Clemson DL but can focus resources on Jackson and still, JJ is more impactful.

Round Fourteen:  #7 Jackson vs. #1 Nick Bosa, Ohio State

Bosa vs. Wisconsin 2017, Texas Christian 2018 and Oregon State 2018 - Very quick.  On the edge, if he gets a jump he's gone.  Needs to keep spacing; if a blocker gets into his chest he's neutralized.  Will need to find the ball in the backfield quicker at the next level. 

Decision: Jackson - Seeing in believing.  Bosa will have his success at the next level, but over the viewing, Jackson was supreme.

Football Film Fight Defensive End Champion 

Joe Jackson, The U

Going into this, I assumed it would be Bosa or Ferrell; both will be first round talents but I see Double J as a huge value given where I'm seeing him projected in mock drafts and Big Boards.

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It's That Time of Year!!!

The 3rd Annual People's Top 100 survey is our right now!  It's 100% free and 97.3% fun!  

Just leave a comment or shoot me an email to  boombearfootballmail@gmail.com for an email link to the online Excel worksheet form with dropdown lists for ease of use!   Check out last year's 2nd Annual Top 100 list here!

No pressure, just have fun.

NFL Draft 2019: Football Film Fight Volume I - Cornerbacks

Tis the Season

Christmas comes but once a year, but the NFL draft is a year round event.  With just the collegiate all star games remaining, it's as good a time as any to kick of the player evaluation process with a side by side comparison of the top prospects based on review of game footage.  

Let the Football Film Fight begin!

The rules are simple:  We line up the top prospects for a given position (with a possible wild card or two of my choice thrown into the mix) and randomly select a player.  We watch and evaluate his game based on no more than 3 video viewings.  We select another player at random and view 3 of his games.  One has to go.  The survivor takes on the next contestant in a head to head elimination round and so on until we end up with the Battle Royale winner!

This first FFF will be between the top cornerback prospects according to Drafttek Sports Information who list the CBs in their top 200 prospects as so:

1. Greedy Williams, LSU 6'1" 182 lbs (2.49 lbs/in in terms of simple mass)
2. Byron Murphy, Washington 5'11" 182 lbs (2.56 lbs/in)
3. Kris Boyd, Texas 6'0" 195 (2.71 lbs/in)
4. DeAndre Baker, Georgia 5'10" 185 lbs (2.64 lbs/in)
5. Trayvon Mullen, Clemson 6'2" 190 lbs (2.57 lbs/in)
6. Amani Oruwariye, Penn State 6'0" 209 lbs (2.90 lbs/in)
7. Kristian Fulton, LSU 6'0" 192 lbs (2.67 lbs/in)
8. Michael Jackson, Miami 6'0" 200 lbs (2.78 lbs/in)
9. Julian Love, Notre Dame 5'11" 193 lbs (2.72 lbs/in)
10. Mark Gilbert, Duke 6'1" 175 lbs (2.40 lbs/in)
11. Rock Ya-Sin, Temple 6'2" 190 lbs (2.58 lbs/in)
12. Myles Bryant, Washington 5'8" 180 lbs (2.65 lbs/in)
13. Iman Marshall, USC 6'0" 200 lbs (2.78 lbs/in)
14. Alijah Holder, Stanford 6'2" 174 lbs (2.35 lbs/in)
15. Sean Bunting, Central Michigan 6'1' 181 lbs (2.50 lbs/in)
16. Derrick Baity, Kentucky 6'2" 186 lbs (2.51 lbs/in)

Round One -  #5 Mullen vs. #12 Bryant

Mullen vs NC State 2017, Duke 2018 and Boston College 2018 - Got fooled on a trick play vs NCSU but did not bite on a similar look later so that was an impressive in game adjustment.  Could be more physical in run support.  Plays tight coverage but would like to see more PBUs when targeted. 

Bryant vs Auburn 2018, Penn State 2017 and Ohio State 2018-  Nickel but run support like a safety.  Definitely not shy of contact although he'll want to focus on open field tackling technique.  Very well prepped for Auburn; film rat?  Huge mistake in Fiesta Bowl, reaching for a bump in off coverage, couldn't recover.

Decision:  Bryant - Not sure anyone will give him a shot outside of the nickel, but his instincts for run support are superior and he clearly is very well prepared.  Once Mullen can convert his knack for tight coverage into PBUs, he will reach his full potential, which is very high.

Round Two - #12 Bryant vs. #16 Baity

Baity vs. Northwestern 2017, Missouri 2017 and Florida 2018 - What he lacks in physicality in run support he makes up in physicality in pass coverage. Dude can lay the lumber. 

Decision: Bryant -  Baity can make you pay when they throw at him but Bryant gets the edge for consistency.

Round Three - #12 Bryant vs. #14 Holder

Holder vs. Oregon 2018, Notre Dame 2018 and Utah 2018 - Engages blocks but needs to shed a bit quicker.  Willing to support run.  Can sometimes provide a bit too much cushion. 

Decision: Bryant - While both seemed well prepared in every game, the difference was aggressiveness attacking a target and overall efficacy.

[Have to admit, I'm surprised Bryant made it this far but he's only been underdog once.]

Round Four - #12 Bryant vs. #3 Boyd

Boyd vs West Virginia 2018, Iowa State 2018 and USC 2018 - Lot of contact downfield that would be called at the next level. Appears more quick than fast.  Will need to study routes to improve recognition. Solid technique. 

Decision: Boyd - Definitely will have to work on reducing the contact, he is aggressive and plays tight coverage showing solid break up fundamentals.

Round Five - #3 Boyd vs. #4 Baker

Baker vs. Oklahoma 2018, Missouri 2017, South Carolina 2018 - Fast, fast, fast. Seems like he can get lost occasionally.  Struggled a bit vs. Mizzou's big WRs. Hair on fire vs. SCAR; got a little chippy to the detriment of the team so needs to watch emotion.

Decision: Baker - Better coverage man without being grabby.  Has much better make up speed and is also not shy about contact.  His improvement over the period is astounding. 

Round Six - #4 Baker vs. #9 Love

Love vs. NC State 2017, Michigan 2018 and Vanderbilt 2018 - Gets lost sometimes.  Willing to play hardnosed defense and support the run.  Lost on a good hard pivot point.

Decision: Baker - Better all around athlete, tighter in coverage and higher field awareness.

Round Seven - #4 Baker vs. #10 Gilbert

Gilbert vs. Virginia Tech 2017, Baylor 2017 and Sophomore compilation - Very tight coverage he's like a mirror.  Didn't see a lot of opportunity for run support but aggressive defender.  Very grabby at the end of routes.

Decision:  Baker -  Gilbert suffered a hip injury early in the 2018 season so it is unclear if he will declare. Either way, he will have to work on eliminate holding from his closing technique or he will be an NFL penalty machine.

Round Eight - #4 Baker vs. #2 Murphy

Murphy vs. Penn State 2017, Arizona State 2018 and Utah 2018 (Pac 12 Championship) -  Plays a lot of off coverage and seems to disappear.  Had a couple of INTs.  Struggled vs. larger receivers.

Decison: Baker - Murphy will provide run support when he can but comparatively, Baker has had more impact on the field for his team over the season.

Round Nine - #4 Baker vs. #11 Ya-Sin

Ya-Sin vs. Buffalo 2018, Maryland 2018 and UCF 2018 -  Plays well tight or off. Solid run support.  Fast and strong.

Decision: Baker - Ya-Sin is very impressive and will be a nice pick up for someone, everything he does well, Baker does even better.

Round Ten - #4 Baker vs.  #1 Williams

Williams vs. Alabama 2017, Texas A&M 2018, Georgia 2018 - Plays tight, but very, very grabby downfield.  Will need to work on run support.  Some incredible closing speed. 

Decision: Baker - Williams is amazing but the "grabbiness" may impact his efficacy at the next level.

Round Eleven - # Baker vs. #6 Oruwariye 

Oruwariye vs. Michigan State 2017, Iowa 2018 and Pittsburgh 2018 - Tremendous improvement in coverage, anticipation and open field tackling year over year. Can work to fight through blocks.  Patient through double moves.  Laid the lumber a couple of times.

Decision: Baker - Oruwariye improved his standing with a strong 2018 and based on the games viewed, should improve his final ranking here.  Baker just too strong.  

Round Twelve - #4 Baker vs. #7 Fulton

Fulton vs. Alabama 2018, Georgia 2018 and Texas A&M 2018- Showed solid cover skills. Run support should be more consistent with NFL coaching. 

Decision:  Baker - On the field, Fulton should have no problem living up to his potential with next level coaching but there are other concerns that may keep him off he field making him a risky pick.

Round Thirteen - #4 Baker vs. #8 Jackson

Jackson vs. Wisconsin 2017, Florida State 2018 and LSU 2018 - Definitely improved the most over the viewing period.  Will need to improved disengagement techniques with pro level WR blocking.  Can get turned around at times.

Decision: Baker - If Jackson's learning curve continues as it has from the 2017 bowl game vs Wisconsin to his 2018 footage, he can be one of the best, however today, it's Baker.

Round Fourteen - #4 Baker vs. #15 Bunting

Bunting vs. Akron 2018, Buffalo 2018 and Kentucky 2018 -  He is aggressive and can cover.  Adding bulk/strength should help him get off blocks. No fear.  Didn't see a lot of grabbing on deep routes.

Decision: Baker - Bunting is definitely a sleeper pick but will be interesting to see his weigh in for the draft process as tends to get out muscled.

Final Round -#4 Baker vs. #13 Marshall

Marshall vs.  Stamford 2017, Washington State 2017 and Texas 2018  - Not a lot of USC 2018 footage readily available. The best of the bunch in terms of run stopping.  No fear.  Not very grabby downfield.  Quick to adjust to routes and fast to close.  

Decision: Baker - Will do a deeper dive but hard to evaluate Marshall's growth from just 1 2018 game in the bunch,  Good  but Baker just stands a cut above. 

Football Film Fight Cornerback Champion 

De'Andre Baker, Georgia

From the game footage I watched, Baker was just a cut above.  He played SCAR game at a different speed than everyone else.  Looking forward to his pre-draft process.  

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It's That Time of Year!!!

The 3rd Annual People's Top 100 survey is our right now!  It's 100% free and 97.3% fun!  

Just leave a comment or shoot me an email to  boombearfootballmail@gmail.com for an email link to the online Excel worksheet form with dropdown lists for ease of use!   Check out last year's 2nd Annual Top 100 list here!

No pressure, just have fun.

"The Empire Strikes Back" - Review of the 2018 People's Top 100 vs the acutal NFL selections for value

Glory Days

Last year, we reviewed the 1st DraftTwitter Top 100 NFL Draft Top Propsects for 2017 - an aggregate list made up of contributions from average ordinary schmoes like you.  After crunching the numbers, our picks provided more value per our method than the actual NFL draft.  There was much celebrating amongst the people and joy in the land!   

Fast forward to today's review of the 2018 draft:  DraftTwitter compared to the Actual (check out The People's Top 100 from last year here...)

 The Method

Step I - Position Groups

The process of comparing picks can be quite subjective.  Baker Mayfield went #1 in the draft but the People selected Quenton Nelson the top prospect overall.  One is a highly visible QB,the other is an interior offensive lineman who doesn't generate commonly distributed statistics.  So how do we compare them?  

This analysis simply breaks up the draft into Position Groups (that is, centers, safeties, guards, etc) and evaluates the baskets; but how are they evaluated?

Step II - Snaps, not Stats

As seen above, it would be surprising if anyone could get concurrence from a large group that using stats to compare a QB vs a G would be a clear cut way to measure one against the other.  A previous article comparing the results of the 2017 DraftTwitter draft on a per Scout basis used games started as a barometer for success in the league.  The rationale there was the coach will start the players who give him the best chance to help the team win the game.

In comparing the players in the way described in Step 1, above, this quickly proved to be ineffective. It was found that a player's % of Total (offensive or defensive, as the case may be) Snaps gives a better picture of how much that player's coach relies on him to contribute to his team's success. 

So, in order to remove the subjectivity from the debate, the judging was predicated not on yards or tackles or touchdowns (which stats don't apply to many players or can be misleading in many cases) but on the percentage of Total Snaps as well as Average Draft Position (ADP) of the players in that peer group.

Step III - The Cobra Kai Rule:  No Mercy

One could argue that exclusion of players who were injured and placed on injured reserve or simply did not make a team was fair so as to not tank averages with a bunch of zeros but...where's the fun in that?!?  No mercy, you made the picks now deal with it.   So players like Isaiah Wynn, who started the season on injured reserve after being a top 40 pick, was a double edge sword in tanking both metrics. 

Step IV - Add'em Up: The Showdown Part II:  DraftTwitter vs. the NFL Draft

So what you are looking at above breaks out each player position and shows how much better (positive) or worse (negative) than the actual draft our survey performed.  For example, the "Edge" players included in the People's Top 100 participated in 38.2% fewer defensive snaps than the "Edge" guys in the first 100 NFL selections in 2018.  This is partially offset by the average ADP being 2.2% higher resulting in an adjusted Deficit value for the People of -37.4%; that is, the league got 37.4% more value out of that position than we did.  YEET!

On an aggregate basis, the People got smoked with the Shield getting over 87% greater value out of their Top 100 picks.  Let's take a deeper look...

Theory vs Reality - That arguably the best player in the draft (Nelson) was picked 6th because he is a guard tells you more than just talent goes into these decisions.   When you draft a guy high, you had better get him on the field.  Naturally, the highest drafted players get trotted out unless their game puts the "ink" in stink. 

• Average Snap % for NFL Top 20:  80.9%
• Average Snap % for the People's Top 20: 72.0%

Honestly, it's Your Fault - The number of participants from you, the people, dropped to the point the numbers were impacted.  The model needs a large enough sample to smooth out wacky picks (like Christian Hackenberg as QB1...some guys!) that could sway the final tally.  So get a ballot and vote!

Dice Rolls - Let's face it...fans dream of being GM of their favorite team.  We can get a little bit carried away.  And in 2018, the People were just a bit too gung ho about players for whom we would "pound the table".  Gambles on guys we like who didn't get on the field enough hurt our performance vs. the NFL because, as we learned above, teams are going to play their high draft picks no matter what.

• Average ADP of Low Impact Snap % Players for actual draft was 65.2
• Average ADP of Low Impact Snap % Players for the People's Top 100 was 67.3

We will define Low Impact Snap % Players as those more than 1 standard deviation below the mean.  Although the difference in this case is relatively small at 2.1, the Shield had only 16 of such players in their top 100 while the People had 23.  That's about 44% more players dragging down the numbers.  

Team Blutarsky - The Cobra Kai rule bit the People in the soft meat, that's for sure.  Injuries contributed to a 100% increase in zero point zero Snap % for the People (10) compared to the NFL actual draft (5).  Fat, drunk and on injured reserve is no way to go through life, son.

Summarily...

The People got housed. And it was really bad.  But, with so many players injured, we're hoping we can rebound in the second year of the 2018 draft class to eliminate or, at least, close the gap.

Keep an eye on this space for the Sophomore Report for an update of the People's Top 100 vs. the actual NFL draft...we were ahead by less than 2% at the end of the 2017 season...check back to see how well that group has seasoned in year 2!

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It's That Time of Year!!!

The 3rd Annual People's Top 100 survey is our right now!  It's 100% free and 97.3% fun!  

Just leave a comment or shoot me an email to  boombearfootballmail@gmail.com for an email link to the online Excel worksheet form with dropdown lists for ease of use!  

No pressure, just have fun.

UPDATED 1/5/19!! Complete ROI Figures for FBS 2018 Season

Final 2018-2019 Return on Investment for FBS!

Since week 1, the ROI listings were based exclusively on catches and reception yards.  Just like the prior years, the Complete ROI figures will exclude running back statistics from team aggregate statistics and consider target information so that we can truly understand what each player did with his opportunities relative to his team and, using that info, how he compares to his peers.

Why ROI?

Return on Investment (ROI) began nearly 5 years ago in an attempt to try and identify draft eligible wide receivers who may have huge potential, but were not part of any hype machine that would make them household names.  After a natural evolutionary process, this current version of ROI has been in place 3 years and has put the spotlight on players like Kenny Golliday (DET), Cooper Kupp (LAR), Mack Hollins (PHI), Tim Patrick (DEN) and Keke Coutee (HOU). Each week through the season the top ROI receivers were presented based and the final FBS rankings are listed below.  Although there are high ROI players from FCS and DII in the NFL who were presented in this space, the difficulty in obtaining all the data required for complete ROI prohibits inclusion of non-FBS rankings here.
Updated 1/5/19:  Thanks to Jimmy Williams for pointing out the original list had suffered from inadvertent filters.  The table and commentary are updated.

Ground Rules

So what goes into ROI?

1. Player target, reception and receiving yard statistics for the top 150 receivers in terms of receiving yards are analyzed on a peer basis.
2. Draft likely players are included initially (juniors and seniors) with declaring underclassment added as they make announcements.
3. The three "raw" ROI metrics resulting from these analyses are combined to provide an aggregate ROI number.
4. Each player's aggregate ROI number is compared to the average to present how much better or worse than average he is; this is the ROI number discussed below.
5. Any player with total receptions at least 1 standard deviation within average or better qualifies for inclusion in the final list (this is the Sammy Coates-Devin Smith Rule to screen out players who may have better results because they are used as deep threats only).

Touchdowns are not included in ROI because there are many factors beyond a receivers skill level that could result in a score.  However, a metric comparing a player's receptions/TD rate to that of the rest of his team is included to give an idea of how much the player impacts the team in terms of scoring. This "TD Rate" compares performance to each players teammates, not directly to each other. 

So Who Are the Most Efficient WRs in FBS?

The key for the above table is as follows:

Green Bold	Tier I
Green	Tier II
Blue	Tier III
Yellow	Tier IV
Orange	Tier V
Orange Bold	Tier VI

Notes:

1. Tier I - Damion Willis Stands Alone:  After spending many weeks on the raw ROI listings throughout the 2018 FBS season,  the  6'4" 199 lbs Troy receiver settles at the top spot at an astounding 288% more efficient than average - that's about twice the ROI of fourth place finisher, my draft crush, Hakeem Butler.  He is our only Tier I ROI talent having converted 22.5% of Troy receiver targets into 23.1% of team receptions and 33.0% team reception yards.  Willis was 1st team all Sun Belt and was an all state (MS) selection in high school.  Although only regular season stats are included in ROI, Willis went off for 13/110/2 vs. Buffalo in the Dollar General Bowl.  Willis also showed out in terms of TD efficiency producing at a rate 284% faster than average compared to his peer group. 
2. Tier II - The Magnificent Seven: Mooney, Anthony and Olabisi Johnson, Butler, Miller, Campbell and Patmon all showed out with ROI efficiency at least 118% better than average - their rate of production in relation to their opportunities were more than twice the sample average.  This is what ROI is all about; low profile guys who ball out but are not at the fore front of everyone's "top" draft prospect lists.  Butler proved to be the Cyclones touchdown machine with TD efficiency of over 300%.
3. Tier III - Above Average with 1 StDev:  Of course, the masses comprise the middle and on the positive side of the mean we have some names who you may have heard tossed around as potential prospects like Isabella from UMass (who led FBS in receiving yards during the regular season) and Marquis "Hollywood" Brown from Oklahoma.  
4. Tier IV - Below Average ROI with 1 StDev: Below the mean, yes, but not necessarily "bad".  These players are on the other side of the mean, within 1 standard deviation of the average.  Future potential stars and likely high draft picks Harry of ASU, Johnson of Texas and Campbell from THE Ohio State University have built a solid track record and have all the physical tools to succeed at the next level.  You will find some likely top draft picks in this list, which shows ROI is better at discovering gems than determining busts 
5. Tier V -  How the Mighty Have Fallen:  Last year, Guyton, Thompson and Brady were constantly high ROI performers.  This year, they have not repeated.  Guyton faced competition from Bussey at North Texas (see table above) , Thompson (a favorite of mine last year) was rebounding from a season ending injury and it will take a bit of study to find out what is driving Brady's dip (possibly change in QB?).
6. Tier VI -  Detective Time: Simply being near the bottom of the ROI list is no reason to abandon a prospect;  Lodge is a highly regarded and talented prospect but his 26.7% target rate 25.0% reception rate and 22.0% reception yard rate reflects performance -223.5% below the sample average.  Most likely, his top flight receiving corp impacted his opportunities and potentially, his overall efficiency.

ROI IS NOT A LEADING INDICATOR!!!!

As I have mentioned frequently, ROI is not a WR ranking system.  There will be many high ROI guys you will never hear from again and there are guys at the bottom of the list GMs will trade up to get.  This is simply another tool to help screen out players who may not get as much media attention for additional research.  

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What time is it?  DraftTwitter Top 100 Time! Now is your chance to participate in the annual aggregate top 100 ranking of draft prospects.  It's fun, it's free and it's a great way to interact with talent evaluators of all levels. Check out the 2nd annual results to get an idea of what we do and follow me on Twitter for updates on receiving the easy online ballot which will be available soon!

Follow me on Twitter @boombearjr 

or at my Facebook page:  Boombearjr Football Analysis (also @boombearjr)