Who? Potential Breakout WRs for FBS 2017

Death, Taxes and College Football

Of the three things I know will eventually come, I look forward to only one. The 2017 college football season is almost upon us.  Last season we saw possibly one of the "deepest" wide receiver classes in recent memory.  While this year's class is full of potential, the real trick is identifying "under the radar" talent early.  So who are the top potential "Breakout" candidates for the coming season?

How Do You Define "Breakout"?

A breakout player in this case would be (1) eligible for the 2018 NFL Player Draft, (2) collected greater than 40 receptions in the 2016 season (which is within 1 Standard Deviation of the average reception total of the top 150 in terms of receiving yards) and (3) did not lead his team in receiving yards in 2016.  And, of course, player rankings are based on their Return on Investment (ROI) efficiency score using the average of Raw ROI and QB adjusted ROI (a quick and easy way to account for differences in QB quality when you just don't want to sift through hundreds of  game play-by-play pdf documents counting receiver targets (which ain't easy, I assure you).  So, here we go:

5. Steven Dunbar: Houston, Senior 6'3" 202 lbs 51 recs 669 rec yards 5 TDs

Everyone loves a winner and Dunbar's Rummel HS (Metarie, LA) won back to back state titles and also was part of the basketball team that made a run for the state title (love the multi-sport athletes). With that resume, you'd expect to see Dunbar at a more recognizable school but he had made up his mind to attend Houston in his Junior year and the other schools were just out of luck.   Last year at Houston, Dunbar had the benefit of QB Greg Ward Jr, now of the NFL, who had above average accuracy based on his above average completion percentage.  Former 5 star QB Kyle Allen transferred from across the state after an underwhelming (if that's a word) career at Manziel University (aka Texas A&M) where he helped contribute to a putrid passing game that was about 13% less accurate then average (only one other school in this analysis was worse). The return of the entire starting offensive line shouldn't hurt. The return of last year's number 1 WR Linell Bonner III might. If players buy what new coach Longhorn legend Major Applewhite is selling, Dunbar could be the "out of nowhere" guy everyone is talking about come next year's draft.  

4. Jordan Lasley: UCLA, Redshirt Junior 6'1" 201 lbs 41 recs 620 rec yards 5 TDs

SoCal Lasley (Serra High - Gardena, CA) has the envious position of having a chip on his shoulder QB returning to show the world in Josh Rosen, who will have 4 of 5 starting linemen returning. Lasley, himself, took a redshirt his first year and was used sparingly his sophomore year leading up to his breakout 2016 season when he was second in terms of receiving yards and led the team with 5 TD receptions.  Lasley is an honor roll student who can win using his head but also has the confidence and swag required to play the game.  Should be an interesting year for him. Due to Rosen's injury, Lasley had some of the most inconsistent QB play of qualifying WRs for this study (his QBs completion percentage was almost 10% worse than average) so consistency from "The Rosen One" could go a long way for Lasley.

3. Keke Coutee: Texas Tech, Junior 5'11" 173 lbs 55 recs 890 rec yards 7 TDs

Some receivers get a bad rep for avoiding contact...Coutee is not one of them.  But watch his HS highlight reel and you will see that he definitely doesn't like getting his uniform dirty - he doesn't get caught and tackled by defenders until after the 2 minute mark!  "Clean" Coutee had the breakout year he was looking for with over 1,000 all purpose yards.  He is shifty and tenacious but his fortune depends on if the gaping hole left by first round pick Pat Mahomes II can be filled by Iowa transfer Nic Shimonek (the Nic-ster is a former finalist for Texas player of the year in high school so, yeah, there's probably upside).  Clean Coutee was second in team receiving yards only to Jonathon Giles who transferred to LSU (and wanted out so much, apparently, he will sit out a year) so he has that going for him.  Which is good.

2. Cedrick Wilson: Boise State, Senior 6'3" 188 lbs 50 recs 1041 rec yards 10 TDs

Anyone who watches this space knows two things give me great joy in a prospect: (1) Pedigree kids -Cedrick's dad, Cedrick Sr. spent 7 seasons in the NFL, earning a Super Bowl ring with the Steelers in 2005 and  (2) Converted High School QBs - Wilson as an All State (TN) QB having led his White Station (TN) team to the state semifinals as a senior. What other player on the team knows what everyone else is supposed to be doing other than the QB?  With largely unsung WR Thomas Sperbeck graduated, Brett Rypien will be leaning heavily on Wilson as his go to receiver.   Wilson also  had a nose for the goal line  having a Rec/TD ratio of 5.0x, far more productive than the sample average 11.7x (the top ratio was 3.5x, for reference).   One year after transferring from Coffeyville CC (KS), Wilson is the #1 WR and has been elected a team captain.  He exudes leadership and poise. We will see if he can capitalize in this position.

1.  Jamire Jordan:  Fresno State,  Redshirt Sophomore 5'10" 173 45 recs 713 rec yards 2 TDs

After notching a single victory the entire season (against an FCS opponent) Fresno State hired new head coach Jeff Tedford to turn the program around. Receiver and return specialist Jordan ( over 1,000 all purpose yards in 2016) could be a big part of that plan.  Another feather in his cap is Fresno State had the worst QB performance in the survey (greater than 16% worse completion % than average) so it can't get any worse, right?  Jordan was not actively recruited outside of his native West Coast (with some mountain states in the mix) with interest from Washington and Utah.  If Jordan can play with any sort of chip on his shoulder, that couldn't hurt his chance to stand out despite playing for a non-Power 5 school on the West Coast.  Leading receiver KeeSean Johnson is also returning so we will really see how big of a chip Jordan carries on his shoulder.

 

Shameless Self-Promotion!

Watch this spot for more College Football and WR updates and analysis, including weekly updates of wide receiver  ROI for FBS, FCS, Division II and Division III!

Also, go like the new Boombearjr Football Analysis Facebook Page and follow me there! https://www.facebook.com/boombearjr/.

2017 Pre-Season FBS Wide Receiver Return on Investment Top Ten

2017 NCAA Football Season is Near!

It’s August and the most wonderful time of the year is almost upon up…college football season!  This space continues its mission of analyzing wide receiver efficiency/efficacy through the Return on Investment percentages.  Based on statistics for the 2016-17 FBS season, the 10 players listed below consistently generated the most production from their reception opportunities.

What is Return on Investment?

Return on Investment for WRs is based on measuring how much better a player is than his teammates at producing receptions compared to target opportunities and yards compared to reception opportunities.  The aggregate of these percentages gives us a player’s ROI.  And while one player may be in a run first offense, another in a pass first and another in a balanced system, volume does not benefit the WR in this analysis as all statistics are based on rates.

For more on ROI, please review this article.

Who's Eligible?

To be eligible for this survey, WRs had to have a minimum of 41 receptions (which was the average for the Top 150 receivers based on reception yards, last year) in the 2016-17 season.  Remember, ROI is NOT intended as a ranking systems in itself, rather, it was developed as a screening system to potential isolate potential NFL draft prospects for further analysis and review.  This will be the fourth year of using ROI as a screening metric and the second  consecutive year in using the same exact formula and methodologies, so we can begin to track the successes and (failures) of the system. 

The Top  

1.  Shaedon Meadors Appalachian State 6’2” Senior ROI 38.947%– With 698 yards on 43 receptions, the former member of USA Today’s All USA South Carolina team accounted for 22.8% of his teams total receptions and cranked out 31.6% of App State’s total receiving yards.  He produced 38.947% more yards than his reception distribution, good for the top spot.  Senior QB Taylor Lamb, who has started for the Mountaineers since his true freshman season, is back under center behind a line that returns 3 of 5 starters.   The familiarity should help Meadors remain consistent.  Compared to the average ROI of 18.0% for the top 150 WRs (in terms of Reception yards), Meadors is 117% more efficient than the average WR. 
2. Nick Westbrook Indiana University 6’3 Junior ROI 38.861%– Westbrook was in the top 50 WRs in terms of yardage with 915 yards on 49 receptions.  He represented 19.8% of team receptions and 27.4% of team reception yards for a ROI of 38.861%.  Granted, the team’s 2015 leading receiver Simmie Cobbs missed last year due to injury, but Westbrook, a former high school All State football player who also lettered in track and lacrosse, will look to capitalize on his relationship with returning Sr QB Richard Lagow who will be protected by 3 returning starting offensive linemen.   ROI is 116% above average.
3. Ahmmon Richards University of Miami 6’1” 192 lbs Sophomore ROI 37.094% - This former consensus 4 star HS prospect quietly generated 866 yards (26.4% of team receiving yards) on 46 receptions (19.2% of team receptions).  With Brad Kaaya’s (DET) departure to the NFL, Richards will need to get in synch with whomever earns the job.  The new QB will at least have 4 experienced starters back on the OL who have hopefully jelled as a unit.  ROI is 106% above average.
4.  Cody Thompson University of Toledo 6’2” 205 lbs Senior ROI 37.091% - This former HS QB (who also served as punter) had a solid year with 1,170 yards (29.6%) on 59 receptions (21.6%).  He will be joined by his fellow All MAC receiver Jon’Vea Johnson and returning Sr. QB Logan Woodside (who gets back 3 of 5 starting OL including his Left Tackle and Center) to continue to cause havoc through the league.  I don’t see how Thompson doesn’t continue his onslaught in 2017.   ROI is 106% above average.
5.  James Washington Oklahoma State University 6’0” 205 lbs.  Senior ROI 36.741% - After pulling down 60 catches (23.0%) for 1159 yards (31.4%), what does JW do for an encore?  We shall see.  This former high school All-State selection and state champion was also district MVP in basketball and all league in TENNIS…tennis?  I bet if you put a saddle on him he could show in the Kentucky Derby.  He gets back Top QB conversation gunslinger Mason Rudolph and 3 of 5 returning linemen.  If you don’t love him, take a look at this and tell me you do not love him so we can revoke your human being card. ROI is 104% above average.
6. Demetris Robertson Cal-Berkley 6’0” 190 lbs. Sophomore ROI 36.443% - Gotta be honest.  After Jared Goff (LAR) left for the pros, I sort of forgot about Cal.  Sure, Chad Henson (NYJ) was entertaining but beyond that I would get distracted.  So when Robertson screened out with 50 catches (13.1%) and 767 reception yards (17.8%) I was like, “who?”  A 3 sport high school athlete who was a “Swiss Army Knife”, he’s going to have to rely on his wits out there with no marque replacement for last year’s “name” QB Davis Webb (NYG) with new starting tackles and LG.  ROI is 103% above average.
7. Allenzae Staggers Southern Mississippi 6’1” 190 lbs. Senior ROI 32.399% - Totaling 935 yards (26.5%) on 52 catches (20.0%), Staggers has his work cut out for him.  He loses the Golden Eagles’ all-time leading passer in Nick Mullens (SF) with no apparent heir apparent and the left side of his OL has moved on leaving 2 of last year’s 5 starters.  A former All State multi-sport athlete, if Staggers can continue his productivity under these circumstances, he will definitely improve his overall draft stock.  ROI is 80% above average.
8. Shay Fields University of Colorado 5’11” 175lbs. Senior ROI 31.507% - Although the Buffaloes lost QB Sefo Liufau (TB) to the NFL, his replacement and new current QB Steven Montez filled in for Liufau during his injury plagued season.  So, at least Fields generated some of his 50 catches (19.3%) and 819 yards (25.4%) from his new full time starting QB.  The Buffs bring back the whole starting OL except the RG so, if Montez can stay vertical, it could mean big things for Fields.  ROI is 75% above average. 
9. Jamire Jordan Fresno State University 5’11” 171lbs. Junior ROI 30.126% - Derek Carr’s former Bulldog locker may have been still a bit warm last year when the Bulldogs took a single victory the entire season…against FCS Sacramento State, yet!   New head coach Jeff Tedford will definitely have ideas for improvement and Jordan, who notched 45 catches (21.4%) for 713 yards (27.9%), is a hopeful beneficiary.  In terms of returning starters, Jordan gets back his QB, 4 of 5 Offensive Linemen (including the LT and C) and Tight End. If the blocking gets right, Jordan looks to show improvement. ROI is 68% above average.
10. Tre’Quan Smith University of Central Florida 6’1” 200 Junior ROI 29.699% - Although Smith started playing football relatively late (in his Jr year of high school), he obviously has a natural feel for the game, evidenced by 54 catches (24.8%) for 808 yards (32.1%).  He’s hoping 2^nd year coach and returning starting Sophomore QB Mackenzie Milton can help him improve and place himself in the NFL draft conversation. ROI is 65% above average.

 While crunching the numbers, I noticed a couple of interesting things:

Observations

Bring the Gravy I.V. – Based on simple body density (that is weight in lbs divided by height in inches), the top 10 are not as solid at the average WR for the 2016 player combine (based on their statistics listed on their schools websites):

2016 NFL Player Combine WR Average simple body density : 2.79 lbs/inch

• Nick Westsbrook:  2.87 lbs/inch  (2.7% above average)
• James Washington: 2.85 lbs/inch (+2.0%)
• Cody Thompson:  2.77 lbs/inch (-0.7%)
• Tre’Quan Smith:  2.74 lbs/inch (-1.8%)
• Denetrus Robertson 2.64  lbs/inch (-5.7%)
• Ahmmon Richards 2.63 lbs/inch (-6.1%)
• Allenzae Staggers 2.60 lbs/inch (-7.2%)
• Shay Fields 2.46 lbs/inch (-13.2%)
• Shaedon Meadors 2.43 lbs/inch (-14.7%)
• Jamire Jordan:  2.41 lbs/inch (-15.8%)

In 2016, the average simple body density for the NFL’s top 30 WRs based on reception yards was about 2.89.  Somebody's grandma needs to be on staff at the player's dining hall. 

Touchdown Machines – Based on the qualified WRs in our survey, the following dudes are just TD beasts, crushing the average rate for a score of 11 receptions for 1 TD:

• Dante Pettis University of Washington Senior – A TD every 3.5 receptions.
• Cedrick Wilson Boise State – Rec/TD rate of 5.0
• Jonathan Giles Texas Tech (sitting out this year given LSU transfer) - Rec/TD rate of 5.3
• Shay Fields Rec/TD rate of 5.6
• Jonathan Duhart – Old Dominion Senior Rec/TD rate of 5.6
• Wyatt Demps  Nevada Senior Rec/TD rate of 5.9
• Cody Thompson Rec/TD rate of 5.9
• Michael Gallup Colorado State Senior Rec/TD rate of 6.4
• Equanimeous St. Brown Notre Dame Junior Rec/TD rate of 6.4
• James Washington Rec/TD rate of 6.7

Sure, Blame the QB – In an attempt to account for QB accuracy (let’s face it, that has a lot to do with being a successful receiver), the ROI metrics were normalized based on the QB completion percentage for FBS of 60.3%.  The guys how were already efficient by being above the average ROI despite crappy QB play get love here:

1. Malik Turner Illinois Senior – Turner gathered 48 receptions for 712 yards and 6 touchdowns despite having a team passing completion percentage that was 17.9% below average.  His QB adjusted ROI is 38.5%
2. Jamire Jordan –His QBs were 16.2% off the average boosting him to 38.2% ROI.
3. Tre’Quan Smith  - His passing attack was off by 10.6%, giving him adjusted ROI of 35.0%
4. Courtland Sutton Southern Methodist Junior- Despite the QB completion percentage off by 10.8%, Sutton put together a solid 76/1246/10 stat line in 2016.  If he has worked on the finer points of his game over the summer, he will most likely enter the 2018 NFL Player Draft as a high projected pick. 
5. Devonte Boyd UNLV Senior The WAC constantly hides gem receivers three of which over as many years, have been some of my favorite prospects.  Two years ago it was Josh McCain of Idaho (did not receive an NFL offer despite leading the conference in receiving), last year it was Marcus Kemp (KC undrafted FA) of Hawai’I and this year Boyd. His QB play was the league worst at 28.4% off the average yet his QB adjusted ROI was 31.2% driven by a 45/746/4 stat line.  I am a huge fan of this man. 

As we get closer to opening kickoff, keep an eye out for the above.

Shameless Self-Promotion!

Watch this spot for more College Football and WR updates and analysis, including weekly updates of wide receiver  ROI for FBS, FCS, Division II and Division III!

Also, go like the new Boombearjr Football Analysis Facebook Page and follow me there! https://www.facebook.com/boombearjr/.