Picks for the Sunday 9/29/19 NFL Line Up

And Now for Something Completely Different...

Hello all.  For those who follow, you know I usually work NFL and college football numbers with an eye for real-world applications.  While working on Strength of Schedule numbers, I saw the GB - PHI point spread looked way off so I posted to Twitter that if  I were a betting man, I would be all over PHI, the underdog, who won straight up. 

Just to have my timestamped "receipt" of the internet if this works again, here are some of the picks based on my calcs vs. Vegas.

  

Please do not use the above for wagering, this is for analytical research purposes only...plus, if  this is all garbage and you lose you can't say I didn't warn you!

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Who are the Most Efficient Wide Receivers to know for NFL Draft 2020?  The first "ROI" survey is out through Week 4!  Check to see if any of your favorites made the list here!  Check back for Week 5 soon!

The Initial 2019 FBS Wide Receiver Efficiency Ranking

Fifth Season of Return on Investment!

Those of you who have followed this space from the beginning understand I am obsessed with value. The top/concensus picks are "easy" to determine but you have to fill out a 53 man roster. Return on Investment has become a great way to screen out overlooked NFL wide receiver prospects who may become solid contributors. Since inception, this space has highlighted the following players (among others):

• 2016 Draft:  Will Fuller, Rashard Higgins and Trevor Davis
• 2017 Draft:   Cooper Kupp, JuJu Smith-Schuester, Kenny Golladay and Josh Reynolds.
• 2018 Draft:  DJ Moore, Keith Kirkwood, Tre'Quan Smith and James Washington
• 2019 Draft:  Keesean Johnson, Travis Fulgham, and Damion Willis.

Of the names of highly efficient receivers (who provide more return on investment of targets than their peers) you will find names you knew pre-draft like Fuller and Smith-Schuster, but the essence of ROI is finding guys lost in the shuffle.

Return on Investment (ROI) began nearly 5 years ago in an attempt to try and identify draft eligible wide receivers who may have huge potential, but were not part of any hype machine that would make them household names.  After a natural evolutionary process, this current version of ROI has been in place 4 years and has revealed players you may not hear about until you see their names scroll across the screen on draft day. 

Each week through the season the top ROI receivers will be presented based with frequent updating of FCS, DII and DIII players.

So, what goes into ROI?

1. Player target, reception and receiving yard statistics for the top 150 receivers in terms of receiving yards are analyzed on a peer basis.
2. The three "raw" ROI metrics resulting from these analyses are combined to provide an aggregate ROI number.
3. Each player's aggregate ROI number is compared to the average to present how much better or worse than average he is; this is the ROI number discussed below.
4. Any player with total receptions at least 1 standard deviation within average or better qualifies for inclusion in the final list (this is the Sammy Coates Rule to screen out players who may have better results because they are used as deep threats only).

Touchdowns are not included in ROI because there are many factors beyond a receivers skill level that could result in a score.  However, a metric comparing a player's receptions/TD rate to that of the rest of his team is included to give an idea of how much the player impacts the team in terms of scoring. This "TD Rate" compares performance to each players teammates, not directly to each other. 

• ROI is NOT a leading indicator! I would not just take the list and start ranking players based on ROI %. The method is best used in screening out WRs for further film work to find guys like Kirkwood who took 21.4% of all offensive snaps in NO last year and Reynolds who came in for an injured Kupp (also high ROI) to keep the Rams' Superbowl bid on track without missing a beat to play 55% of team snaps with 5 TDs.
• For the first few weeks, we will include all receivers regardless of class. 
• As we get closer to Bowl season you will see only seniors and underclassmen we are pretty sure will declare. 
• The above data is simple  ROI, that is, the target information is not yet included primarily because final ROI is a fairly labor intensive process (which includes omitting all non-WR data from team aggregate statistics and target data can be hard to come by).
• Simple ROI is a good indicator, but the final ROI list and the weekly presentations may look different.
• In the future, we may break up the top 20 into Power 5 and non-Power 5 for a more "apples to apples" presentation but more on that at a later date.

Yellow indicates within 1 standard deviation above the mean; green indicates between 1 and 2 standard deviations above the mean.

Comments:

•  Clemson is WRU - Junior Tee Higgins could be overlooked given the competition over at another SEC school, but this two-time Mr. Football for the state of Tennessee has the size, speed and now, the efficiency to make an immediate impact in the NFL.   Some outlets have him as potentially WR5 in the upcoming draft but we'll see if he can elevate his standing with a solid 2019.
• You Down With AGG? - The top senior in this initial list is Antonio Gandy-Golden of Liberty University, the newest member of the FBS.  Dude was named Offensive Player of the Year for his high school team as a SOPHOMORE...you're not even supposed to be on varsity as a sophomore let alone be the best player. No surprise he has been a contributor all four years for the Flames with a nice 6/119 performance against then #22 Syracuse this season.
• Hello, Again - Bryan Edwards is the only player from last year's list to make the opening Top 20.  He was more efficient than former teammate and current 49'er Deebo Samuel last year and with a new QB showing promise, Edwards could end up on more radar screens before all is said and done.
• Runs in the Family - JD Spielman, adopted son of Minnesota Vikings GM Rick Spielman and nephew of NFL great Chris Spielman, has been around football his entire life and it shows.  A HS running back, he can provide a spark after the catch.  The Huskers are not known as a pass heavy school but with his ability as a receiver AND a return man, Spielman will get a lot of looks for his versatility whether he declares early this year or utilizes his full eligibility. 

That's the first listing as of Week 4 for FBS.  Check back for the Week 5 update along with high ROI players on the FCS, DII and DIII radars!


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After the first round, where have the best EDGE players been found?  It's not the 2nd round, I'll tell you that.  Check out the full story here!

Livin' on the Edge - What Round Produces the Best Value for Pass Rushers?

First Rounders or Nothing?

Recently on my favorite social media site, I read a comment advising a team to do what it would take to draft a first-round pass rusher since only those in the first 32 selections matter.  Bold indeed, but if you have read this column you know I do not like absolutes.  So, I wanted to see how pass rushers from other rounds stood up to those drafted in that sacred category of first rounders. 

Methodology

There were several steps to be performed before I was comfortable that the data presented was fair and showed an "apples to apples" comparison of info.

Data Source
I used complied the Defensive End/Outside Linebacker Data for the draft classes from 2014 to 2017 and ranked them based on the following categories for their entire careers:

• Games Played 
• Total Defensive Snaps Played 
• Tackles
• Sacks

The player rankings were averaged and the detail for the Top 20 in each draft class was broken out by Round. A table for the 2014 Draft is below:

1. Round includes all the players drafted in that round.
2. Quantity represents the number of players selected in each respective round who made it into the Top 20 (based on the rankings of the four categories above).
3. Average Rank of the Top 20 draftees of that round- in this example.
4. Snaps is the average number of snaps per year for the members of each round. 
5. Draft Pos: Represents the average draft position of the players in each round.
6. Rank - Using the Avg Rank column, each round is ranked with a grade starting at 100% for the best performing round (with the basis for other rounds based on the top score and the average of all rounds with selections).

What is the expected performance level of other rounds in relation to first-round selections?
Because market rates are the best indicators for value, the following table based on the  NFL Draft rookie salary schedule is the basis for our value assessment.

The table above compares the average of the top and bottom salary of rookies for each round of the 2019 draft.  
The row "% of 1st Round" assumes the value of a 2nd rounder as 27.8% that of a 1st rounder which is assigned a value of 100%. The line below, "First Round Superiority" shows a 1st rounder is 3.60x more valuable than a 2nd rounder, 5.83x more valuable than a 3rd rounder and so on. 

What is the actual performance for each round over the analysis period?

Let's look at the table for 2014:

• The top performing Round was the 3rd, as the average rank based on our criteria was 8.33 (please see the first table in this article, 2014 NFL Draft EDGE Data above)  which was the best measure for that draft class.  As such, it earned the top Avg Rank value of 100%.
• The 1st round draftees were a close second with an average rank of 99.3%.
• % Top 20 reflects how many of the Edge rushers drafted in that round made it into the top ten. 
• Of the 6 Edge rushers drafted in the 3rd round of the 2014 draft, 3 made it into the Top 20.
• Risk Value is the Avg Rank adjusted to reflect their % Top 20.  Sure, the third rounders earned the top score, but they have a 50/50 chance of making it to the top 20, whereas 85.7% of the 1st rounders for this draft made it to the top 20 based on my methodology.
• +/- Expected compares the Risk Value to the Expected Performance values in the second column; this reflects the value beyond the expected amount we would have selected in that round. 
• Zero would represent the Edge rushers performed as expected based on our benchmarks with no additional value. 
• In Round 3, the Risk Value is 50% but the Expected Performance is only 17.2% so the excess Expected Value in potentially selecting aTop 20 selecting player in the third round is 191.4%
• In the 2014 draft, there were no Edge rushers drafted in the 6th or 7th round and those fields are blank.

Expected Performance- What's the Bottom Line?

Based on the above, we learn the following:

• It's no surprise that first Round picks are consistently the best performers in terms of the metrics used for this analysis.
• Over the four year period reviewed there was only one first-round "miss"(that is, he didn't finish in the top 20 based on the metrics described above) and that was Marcus Smith, drafted by PHI (currently a free agent). 
• The worst performing round was the sixth which had an average rank of 23.2%. This group includes the 2016 group that underperformed to the point they contributed a negative ranking (caused by the large difference in the average aggregate player ranking for 6th rounders compared to the average for the 2014 draft).
• Second Round picks have been surprisingly poor based on our criteria over given the analysis period. 
• Through the third, fourth and even the fifth rounds, the Avg Rank was in the 80's, which is pretty solid.
• Despite the notion that there is no talent outside of the first round for pass rushers, from the results we see that is clearly not true. 
• From a value perspective, we see that overall, you can't go wrong going with a first-round pass rusher given you risk potentially losing only -3.7% from your expected performance however, based on the value of each later round being at least 3x less than the first round, there are exceptional opportunities in the later rounds with the fourth round showing the best historical value of 318.1% above the expected performance of 14%. Some of the standouts drafted in the fourth round include Trey Flowers, Za'Darius Smtih, Joe Schobert, Deatrich Wise, Samson Ebukam and Carl Lawson.
• The sixth round was the worst round with the expectation such players would provide 48.4%  LESS Expected Performance with players such as Al-Quuadin Muhamad, Anthony Chickillo and Kamu Grugier-Hill included in the analysis. 

A takeaway for me was it is critical to draft players who can help your football team. Every draft selection is not going to be a hall of fame caliber player but as long as you can find guys who can help your team, regardless of the round, a GM will keep his job.  

Feel free to leave questions or comments for me.  

Thanks!

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What to read about how QB aggressiveness impacts team wins? Of course you do...check it out here! 

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Shameless Self-Promotion!!!

Follow me on Twitter @boombearjr 

or at my Facebook page:  Boombearjr Football Analysis (also @boombearjr).

Continue to watch this space for more NFL and  Draft commentary.

A Look at the Impact of 2018 NFL Quarterback Aggressiveness on Win %

Bond, James Bond

Who doesn't love the classic James Bond gambling scene? You know the one where he's playing some high-class European casino game we don't understand and his opponent (usually wearing a fez, an eyepatch or both) gets at our boy with a power move only to have 007 slap the taste out of his mouth with some mathematically improbable win.  

"Shoot.  Left my lucky fez at home tonight..."

While most of you were likely trying to figure out what the heck just happened, I would sit fascinated at the nerve required to go forward even when the odds were staggeringly against you.  

Let's take a look at quarterback aggressiveness in the NFL and how that impacts winning percentage.

In the Mix

So, how do we begin?

• First, I took the NFL NextGen Stats for QB Aggressiveness for the last 3 seasons (2016 - 2018).
• Aggressiveness is measured as the percentage of passing attempts a QB makes that are into tight coverage defined as a throw where  a defender is within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion.  The lower the number, the less aggressive the QB play.
• "Avg Aggr" represents the Average Aggressiveness over the last 3 years. 
• All stats are ranked for each particular season year and distributed based on the average score representing a 75% grade and the top grade is an automatic 100%.  This provides the "Agg Grade".
• Next, I conducted the same compilation for NFL Passer Rating per https://www.pro-football-reference.com/  with "Avg Psr Rating" and "Avg Psr Rating Grade" included in the table below.
• Players who are not currently active in the league or projected not to be relevant in 2019 (based on my opinion) are excluded. 
• Finally, I compare each Grade to the average and combine them for each player to get a "Risk/Reward" Measure.
• This measure presents a relative score with zero representing the average with the higher the score, the more acceptable the risk the QB takes for the reward.  

Let's take a look:

Comments

• Avg Aggressiveness over the 3 season period ranged from 12.4% of all Patrick Mahomes passes within 1 yard of a defender, all the way up to 21.6% of such passes for Josh Rosen.
• Mahomes is famous for no-look passes and plays that make the weekly highlights but in actuality, he is the least aggressive QB in the league based on our parameters.
• Keep in mind as you review the list, this analysis will not look at drivers of these metrics such as:
• Aggregate receiver skill one QB may enjoy vs another with lower-skilled options.  
• Potentially more favorable offensive scheme.  
• "Gunslinger" QB mentality vs. more naturally conservative QBs.
• The AGG Grade reflects average grade over each of the last 3 seasons.  Tyrod Taylor has a lower Avg Aggr than Mahomes but has a higher AGG Grade...how?  Mahomes was third in terms of Avg Aggr his singular year in the analysis while Tyrod's average over the 3 year period was better - he gained ground in the years Mahomes was not starting.  Remember, we are looking at each season in a vacuum.
• From an Avg Passer Rating standpoint, Cam Newton is above average, however, his AGG Grade is in the lower tier. In this case, his Risk Reward reflects a negative score.

Must have seen some of his past outfit choices...

• That's not to say a guy can't be Aggressive and have success...Look at Matt Ryan's Avg AGG which is on the "More Aggressive" end of the spectrum, however, he has a top tier Avg Psr Rating.
• Josh Allen is one of the most conservative QBs in terms of his AGG Grade but because of his Avg Passer Rating Grade is the 2nd lowest in the study - as such, his Risk/Reward is negative 19.7. 
• At the end of the day, Mahomes has the highest Risk/Reward score which I read as, for his level of risk (low) and his level of output (higher, in terms of Passer Rating), he is optimizing his risk management nearly 50% better than the rest of the league.
• On the other end of the spectrum, Josh Rosen's rookie year saw him take the most chances (at almost double the rate of Mahomes) resulting in the worst passer rating of the group.  His overall risk management was over 50% worse than the field.  Let's hope he has better days in Miami but, at this point, that seems questionable.

Confession, I am a huge Rosen fan...

What's the Bottom Line?

Regardless of risk, the bottom line is wins. If a guy can take calculated risks and still win you a championship (like Eli Manning with his Risk Reward score of - 15.5%), you would take him every day.  So, does a higher Risk/Reward performance ratio mean a higher QB win percentage, based on data over the last 3 seasons?

Based on the above, when comparing Risk/ Reward to QB Win Percentage, there is a 51.3% correlation between the two which is enough to confirm at least a moderate relationship. 

Looking forward to updating this table at the end of the regular season!

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Want to read more?  How many games will your team win this year?  Check out my analysis here and get po'ed!

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Shameless Self-Promotion!!!

Follow me on Twitter @boombearjr 

or at my Facebook page:  Boombearjr Football Analysis (also @boombearjr).

Continue to watch this space for more NFL and  Draft commentary. 

Who Are the Most Statistically Active Defensive Players for the Coming 2019 NFL Season?

Get Active!

Previously, this space discussed the statistical activity of Defensive Ends through review of their "Elemental Statistics" (or ES) which is explained at length here, but for the sake of simplicity, they are the compiled defensive statistics which include sacks, interceptions, forced fumbles, passed defended, QB Hits, Tackles for Loss, fumble recoveries, safeties and touchdowns.  All are given equal weight in this exercise (although I am in the process of weighting them based on their correlation to both wins and Points Allowed...stay tuned) and measured for frequency to find out at what rate they are gathered.

Divide and Conquer

Because each position player's role in the defense results in different opportunities to generate ES, we will compare players within their position groups on an 'apples to apples' basis.  The positions are presented based on the most elite groupings in terms of the fewest players which grade out to an A- or better. 

The cut off for inclusion was a player had to have snaps at least equal to 1 standard deviation below the mean for the entire survey of over 700  players.

Color coding for Snaps/Elementary Statistic (Snaps/ES) is:  Green = greater than 1 standard deviation above the mean; Yellow with Bold font =  between 1 standard deviation above the mean and the mean.

Cornerbacks

Corners are the smallest group given their ES opportunities are fewer than positions like Linebacker.  Based on the group average, we assign a grade of 100% to the top performer and then base the rest of the field on overall score distribution for the position.  

• The group above is headed up by Alexander of Minnesota who averaged one ES for every 22.77 snaps. 
• With just 11 players earning "A" grades, this was the most exclusive position in the survey.
• Alexander's margin of victory compared to the other positions was 4% which is 2.2x greater than the next closest position race!
• Notwithstanding the large grade margin for Alexander, the top CBs were all within 1 standard deviation above the mean so the group as a whole was quite similar.

Linebackers

Much longer list, obviously given you have 3 or 4 LBs on the field at one time. 

• Von Miller is the most statically active LB with one ES every 13.72 snaps.  
• DEN, KC and BAL each have 2 LBs in the top 10...Frightening. (If you take it out to the top 12, CHI has 3 players).
• Again, the group is fairly similar as a whole as there are no players performing beyond 1standard deviation above the mean.

Safeties

The safety group is the first to provide "Green" players who performed beyond 1 standard deviation above the mean.  

•  Adams, James and Levine are all in the top tier of safeties in terms of statistical activity.
• Levine is the one name you may not know but he has been a solid contributor on the Ravens for some time now. 
• BAL is the only team to boast two safeties in the top 10.

Defensive Tackles 

Defensive Tackles had six players perform at a higher level than the rest of their position group. 

• Donald is not surprisingly the best gatherer of ES in the league, gaining one every 10.91 snaps. 
• The distribution of "A" talent is diverse as no team has more than one top Statistically Active DT.
• This group has a lot of old timers including recent league retiree Kyle Williams, the oldest A rated player in our survey for 2018.

Defensive End/Outside Linebacker

Edge is the most Statistically Active position with nine players ringing up stats like Dave Allen, greater than 1 standard deviation from the mean. 

• PHI had 3 in the top 3 in 2018; the retirement of Chris Long will obviously have an impact on the Eagles performance for 2019.
• With the addition of Frank Clark, KC also has 2 in the top 5 performers. 
•  Clowney is now in SEA so we will see if he feasts like Frank Clark did in 2018 or if he will provide above average ES generation like he did last year. 

Summary Table

The above table details the averages for the players presented in the positional tables.

• The bottom two rows measure the correlation between 2018 team wins and points scored against each team's defense.
• The strongest correlation of the areas examined is between Average Player Grade and Points Against (which has a negative relationship), that is a moderate correlation exists so we can expect the higher the Grade for players from the positional ES tables, the fewer points we can expect the opponent to score (PA total). 
• Not earth shattering, but nice to see the correlation exists even if it is not overwhelming.
• There is also a moderate correlation between Snaps/ES as expected where the higher the rate the lower the win total (again, a negative relationship) and the higher the PA.

So What?

OK, so we sort of expected increased statistical activity for defensive players would result in some sort of correlation with wins and points allowed but they was only moderate by  statistical standards. 

It was interesting to see which positions and which teams are most active.   The ongoing challenge will be to continue to monitor player movement to see how much of an impact certain players had on the win totals for prior years and teams?  If Player X was on Team Y last year and we see, year over year after he left they had a decline or increase in Snaps/ES, can that tell us anything about his numerical value to his particular team when comparing performance to wins and losses?  What about his new team; will their gain in ES be in line with that lost by his former team?   

No idea, but it will be interesting for us to keep asking and evaluating right here so keep an eye out for future updates.

Thanks and feel free to leave a comment!

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What defensive stats have the most impact in terms of Wins?  Glad you asked...check it out right here!

NFL Cutdown Weekend 2019

Cruel Irony

Who at NFL headquarters decided to assign the weekend before Labor Day as the cut down deadline for the 53  man roster?  Sicko.

Anyway, given that there are so many different sources for player updates, the following is not intended to be a comprehensive list of the released players but just my own thoughts regarding players I've been following for a while.

• ARI - Mr. Irrelevant?!?!  NOOO!!!  - ARI cut Caleb Wilson, TE out of UCLA, the final pick of the 2019 draft.  I wonder if he still gets to keep the prizes he got for being last pick.  OL William Sweet has a fan club for this past draft but I guess ARI brass wasn’t in it.
• ATL – The Danny Etling experiment may be over as the former LSU QB turned TE turned QB was released.  He will pop up somewhere. 
• BAL – Former 1^st round draft pick Shane Ray: go back and watch his college footage at Mizzou and let me know when you see why he was free so much to make all those sacks… (Hint - that reason is now in the NFC East).  My WR1 Antoine Wesley is now available…we will see where he lands.
• BUF– Draft pick Tyree Jackson was waived but we’ll likely see him on the PS.  Shady, not so much, but he’s already latched onto the Chiefs.  Two ROI casualties, Duke Williams from a few years back and David Sills V, last year with the second lowest ROI of the year, were both let go. 
• CIN – Former HS QB Tony Lippert lead the Big 10 in receiving yards his final year before the draft so, of course, the league drafts him in at CB, his part time position at Michigan State.  Moving over the line back to WR would make too much sense, of course.  That is our NFL.

• CLE – No beef with their cuts despite them letting loose Damon Sheehy-Giuseppi after a fairy tale summer for the pro “walk-on”.  
• DAL – DraftTwitter will not have Mitch Hyatt to kick around anymore.  He can go on to his career in finance now.  I really liked Mike Jackson out of the U but, alas, at least his dad Joe (who I had as my top DE in the last draft) made the squad. 
• DEN – I was a big fam of Khalfani Muhammad as a RB out of Cal a couple of years back and he had a productive pre-season but DEN has decent depth there already. Hope he can latch on after this summer’s audition.  QB Brett Rypien had his fans, unfortunately they were not in Elway’s circle. Dadi Nichols was a DraftTwitter darling a few years back, now looking for his next opportunity.
• DET – The Lions are deep at WR but to keep Old Dominion WR Travis Fulgham and cut his clearly more talented former teammate in college and the pros, Jonathan Duhart is a mystery to me. I know teams look for high ceilings but I’ll take the high floor in this case. Hope Duhart latches on.  He had a very nice college reel.  We won’t talk about Teez Tabor – I will just go to say that I was told the old “you’re overthinking this” line when I questioned his skill set for the next level during his draft process.  Always trust yourself and don’t let anyone talk you out of your player grade, boys and girls.   Jordan Lasley…dude threw a football into a pond during practice so not surprised here. He was a top ROI guy so disappointed, but not surprised.
• GB – My son literally cheered in the middle of a restaurant when he saw Kizer was gone.  Also gone is OT Gerhard de Beer who went to high school in South Africa where, you know, they don’t really play our football  Hey, they rolled the dice.
• HOU – Trades, notwithstanding, the Texans waived one of my favorite sleepers Derrick Baity Jr, CB out of Kentucky.  Hope he doesn’t sleep too long before someone comes calling.  Evidently, Watson wanted to settle all family business and QBs Ta’amu and Webb were whacked. CB Boddy-Calhoun has starting experience so teams will likely pick him off the heap.
• KC – A couple of QBs I really like were dumped in Chase Litton and rookie Kyle Shurmur, both I believe had fairly good preseasons.  I especially expect to hear from Shurmur down the road as he is a coaches son with a bit of Brett Favre in him. I would expect to see him on the PS.
• LAC - Artavis Scott drafted out of Clemson was cut by the Chargers after missing his rookie season due to injury. We’ll see if he lands on the PS.  Cardale Jones was finally uprooted by Easton Stick, the man who held down the fort in college while Carson Wentz was injured for most of his senior season (shocking, I know).  A couple of years under Ol’ Hickory at QB and Stick could be the future of the Chargers
• LAR – Wonder if they made Cooper fire Ketner Kupp?  Should be in the contract that you have to fire siblings on your team.  Oh well.  Leading FCS ROI WR Khadarel Hodge blew up this preseason so I expect to see him back at some point here.
• MIN - Treadwell was cut by Minnesota.  He was argued as WR1 however after looking at him more closely after his ROI efficiency was substantially below average.  Bisi Johnson (not included on the cutdown list) and his exceptional ROI may have helped them to finally pull the trigger on LT.  We will see if he can latch on anywhere else.
• NE – The OL picks just haven’t panned out with them dumping Martez Ivey, Tyree St. Louis and Yodny Cajuste. Maybe Belichick just couldn’t pronounce their names.
• NYG – With DJ being drafted in the first round, dropping Lauletta was a foregone conclusion.  WR TJ Jones had solid efficiency numbers as a Lion but teams didn’t get him the ball enough for that efficiency to translate.  He’ll latch on somewhere.
• NYJ – The cuts reflect a sort of bloodletting by the new GM Joe Douglass who jettisoned many recent draft picks including two much maligned 2019 selections by his predecessor.  Hoping the team turns the page.
• PHI – Eli Harold was a big favorite coming out of UVA but it never panned out with him getting cut by his fourth team going into his fifth season.
• SF – Former Michigan QB Wilton Speight didn’t make the 53 and we will see if he latches on to the PS for further development. 
• SEA – Jazz Ferguson was released but will no doubt be signed to the PS to provide a security blanket for when D.K. Metcalf can’t go due to injury.  Geno Smith was cut but with absolutely no leverage, he will take whatever contract they give him as they have just on QB on the roster and he has no other options. What a sad match.
• TB – Long list they have includes such names as OLB Noah Spence, Vincent “Don’t call me Vinnie” Testaverde and former starting RB Andre Ellington.  Former Mississippi State QB Nick Fitzgerald, LSU DB John Battle and DraftTwitter darling WR Emmanuel Hall were all assigned to the PS. The fate of 6^th round pick Scotty Miller is at this point unclear as he was plagued with hamstring issues this preseason.
• TEN –OL Hroniss Grasu has never quite put it together after leaving Oregon.  Logan Woodside his proven his ability this offseason so he will likely land on a PS.

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Three More Weeks Until the initial 2019 NCAA FOOTBALL Wide Receiver Return on Investment Efficiency survey for FBS, FCS, Division II and Division III.  To prep, check out "ROI" vs Dominator Rating for the 2018 season, right here