Updated College Football Wide Receiver ROI for Week 4

There Can Be Just One...

Welcome back for the second Wide Receiver Return on Investment (ROI) Top lists for college football.  For those of you not familiar with ROI it is an efficiency measure that allows college receivers to be measured side by side.  Regardless if a player is in a run heavy or pass heavy offense or is a second option in an offense that has a household name receiver as its focal point, ROI clarifies so we can see who gets the most production out of his opportunities. The FBS list will be updated weekly with rotational coverage of FCS, Division II and Division III through the Bowl/Championship season all the way to the NFL Player Draft where we hope to see some ROI stand outs like  like Chris Conley of the Chiefs, Keelan Cole of the Jaguars, Mack Hollins of the Eagles and rookie Pittsburgh Steeler James Washington have in past years. 

There was a lot of movement across all 4 divisions of NCAA football so let's go into it.

FBS

New Names This Week:

• Very excited CJ Worton made the list; he is the younger brother of JJ Worton who was part of the UCF receiving corp with 1st round pick Breshad Perriman.  If not for injury, I believe the elder Worton would have outlasted Perriman in the league. CJ transferred from Florida with a chip on his shoulder and is looking to make a name for himself in his RS senior year. 
• Stanley Morgan Jr made appearances on last year's ROI list and is looking to re-establish himself.  He led the Huskers in receiving yards and touchdowns in 2017 and is off to a great start to continue to carry the load.  
• Corey Sutton has the bloodline you want: he attends his parent's alma mater where his dad played on the gridiron before signing with the Chicago Bears.  The 6'3" 200 lbs receiver began his college career at Kansas State before transferring to App State now in his RS sophomore year. 
• Trevon Brown was another receiver who made several appearances on the Top ROI list in 2017.  As the returning senior, he has a chance to cement his position as the primary receiver. .
• Lil' Jordan Humphrey is anything but at 6'3" 225lbs. A stud in high school as a two time All State selection (in Texas?! ), he is a former RB who runs with an attacking style after the catch.  While his teammate Collin Johnson is the name many know, Lil' Jordan is certainly making his presence felt. 

FCS

• This week we highlight the Top 10 which is headed up again by last week's #1, Devonte Dedmon of William & Mary.
• The highest debut is Josh Wilkes from Arkansas Pine Bluff who is among the Division leaders in receiving yards with 500 through 3 games. 

Division II

• Kaian Duverger from UVA-Wise as muscled his way to the top spot after resting at #2 last week. 
• My new favorite player based on his name, alone, Bane (Shawn, Jr, that is) jumped from #4 to #2.
• The highest ranking newcomer to the list is Kristian Brown from Texas Permian Basin - football and Permian go together, don't they?  Brown was 2nd on the team in rec yards in 2017 and is adding value in the kickoff return game as well. 

Division III

• Not only does Jewell Day major in Engineering and rock the mafia combo in his portrait, ("Leave the slide rule, take the cannoli") he also jumped from #10 last week to #1 to lead D3 in WR efficiency.
• Jacob Jodway of Olivet was  last week's #1 not just in D3 but for all Divisions, but goes Oh-fer and drops out off the list for not having enough receptions to qualify.  The horror.
• Jackson Daugherty of Hanover debuts at #7 going over 100 yards last week.

Bad Man of the Week

Last week, the aforementioned Jacob Jodway of Olivet from the land of Division III took the very first Bad Mad award, with the top ROI through Week 3.  This week, we have a new top dog!

Hakeem Butler - Iowa State - Listed at 6'6" and 219 lbs, Butler looks the part of an NFL WR, but don't let the smile fool you.  He is a bad man, indeed.    I mean, how can you currently have 2 less receptions than the team leader but more than double the reception leader's yards?  What kind of insanity is that? That kind of insanity looks pretty snazzy, I must say...

The smile he has just before he pulls DB's hearts out of their chests. 

Good luck to Butler and his Cyclones vs. TCU this week. 

Touchdown Chain (formerly known as Touchdown Machine)

Another interesting metric to track is Touchdown efficiency which is Recs/TDs compared to average for a player's division.   Last week, FBS took the Touchdown Chain; who gets it this week?  

The best Reception to TD ratios for the Top 20 ROI WRs compared to each group's average,  representing each of the 4 NCAA divisions:

J-JAW keeps the TD Chain by improving his Rec/TD ratio to 2.4 from 2.6 last week. Second week in a row for this TD machine who, when you watch him, you can see he works for each and every one of them, though he often makes it look easy.

Check out your ROI updates every week for all 4 NCAA divisions right here!

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Initial 2018 FBS Wide Receiver Return on Investment Top 20 Rank

Week 3 of FBS Means One Thing...

The initial Return on Investment list is generated for the new College Football season!  Now that we have at least 3 games worth of data, we can now plug the data into our model to help us identify under the radar NFL prospects. For those of you not familiar with ROI it is an efficiency measure that allows college receivers to be measured side by side.  Regardless if a player is in a run heavy or pass heavy offense or is a second option in an offense that has a household name receiver as its focal point, ROI clarifies so we can see who gets the most production out of his opportunities. The FBS list will be updated weekly with rotational coverage of FCS, Division II and Division III through the Bowl/Championship season all the way to the NFL Player Draft where we hope to see some ROI stand outs like  like Chris Conley of the Chiefs, Keelan Cole of the Jaguars, Mack Hollins of the Eagles and rookie Pittsburgh Steeler James Washington have in past years. Let's get into it...

FBS Top 20

Notes:

• The average player listed on the Top 150 in terms of Reception yards had an average ROI of 24.7%.
• JJ Arcega-Whiteside is 250% more efficient than the average WR, per the ROI measure
• Bryan Edwards is the only name from the preseason ROI Watch List (please see the article here) to debut on the 2018 list. 
• Using our body density measure, the biggest bodied WRs are Arcega-Whiteside  at 6'3" 222 lbs (makes sense since both his parents were professional basketball players), Jamal Custis at 6'5" 224 lbs and Darnell Salomon at 6'3" 215lbs.  The slightest of frame are Drew Dan, all 6'3" 180 lbs of him, Papi White at 5'9" 168 lbs and Bailey Gaither at 6'1" 178 lbs.
• Welcome back, Jalen Guyton!  He is the only returning WR to have appeared on multiple ROI lists from the 2017 season. 
• Brand Name vs. No Name -  The next time you watch these big brand name players being mentioned as NFL prospects, make sure to keep an eye on their lesser known but superior ROI teammates:
• South Carolina brand name Deebo Samuel vs. No Name Bryan Edwards
• Buffalo brand name:  Anthony Johnson vs No Name K/.J. Osborn
• Hawai'i brand name: John Ursua vs. No Name JoJo Ward
• Plan B - The following all excel at other sports besides football:
• Custis won state championship in basketball (HS)
• Green won 5 letters in HS basketball (yes, he played varsity in the 8th grade).
• Hall won gold medals at the Junior Olympics for the high jump and pentathlon.
• Lloyd previously played on the Duke University baseball team and was a high school quarterback.

FCS

The average ROI for the Top 150 FCS WRs was 32.5% which means top man Devonte Dedmon can argue he is 179% more efficient than the average receiver in the division.

Division II

With an average ROI of 28.4% for D2 Top 150 Reception Yard players, Khalig Muhammad is 231% more efficient than those at the 50th percentile.

Division III

With the average Top 150 Reception Yards receiver ROI being 29.8%, Divison III is the second most efficient of the four NCAA divisions.  And so, with an average ROI of 123.3% Jacob Jodway is 314% more efficient than average, which is the highest ROI compared to benchmark by any of the 600 WRs included in this week's analysis.


Yes, this guy:

Hello, how are you? I'm the baddest WR in college football.

But hey, you can't judge a book by it's cover so do some research and see what you can come up with on Double J.  Search for Olivet games and you'll see he plays with a lot of passion.  He made 1st Team All Conference as a junior last year, so that supports the ROI findings that he's a bad, bad man on the gridiron.  Looks pretty nice in real life, though.

Touchdown Machine

Another interesting metric to track is Touchdown efficiency which is Recs/TDs compared to average for a player's division.   The best Reception to TD ratios for the Top 20 ROI WRs representing each of the 4 NCAA divisions:

4th Place: Division II - Brody Oliver of Colorado School of Mines (Their nickname?  The orediggers...not sure how I feel about that one) has a REC/TD ratio of 2.6 compared to the D2 average of 5.0 or 92.3% above average.

3rd Place: FCS - Jazz Ferguson of Northwestern State with a TD every 3.8 receptions compared to the average of 7.8 receptions or 107% above average.

2nd Place: Division III - Shenandoah's Casey Stewart has scored a TD every 2.0 receptions which, compared to the average of 5.3, is 110% above average.  

1st Place:  FBS - JJ Arcega-Whiteside of Stanford had a Rec/TD ratio of 2.6 but because the average is 7.4, his ratio is 185% above average (charmed life, this guy).

Check out your ROI updates every week for all 4 NCAA divisions right here!

Shameless Self-Promotion!!!

Follow me on Twitter @boombearjr 

or at my Facebook page:  Boombearjr Football Analysis (also @boombearjr).

Continue to watch this space for more NFL Draft commentary. 

Check out the People's Top 100 NFL Draft 2018 prospects created by football fans like you!