ROI Update for Week 7!!

FBS

Just looking at the Main Event is week with detail on FCS, DII and DIII next week.

• Butler is back at #1 after a week off the Top 20 (reception total did not qualify) and he maintains his dominance of FBS ROI efficiency at 239% above average and over 113% better than the #2 receiver in the list. 
• Green, Poindexter and Arcega-Whiteside have been in the Top 20 each of the first 5 weeks of the survey. The first two have risen in ranks since last week while the last, at #19, will have to fight to stay in for another week.
• Making a move is Miller from BGSU who was a pre-season Top ROI "One to Watch" in what is his first week in the Top 20 previously excluded because of reception volume. 
• Other Newbs to the list include:  Boykin from Notre Dame, Turpin from TCU who made appearances on this list at times during his underclass years, and Boone from NMSU.

Baddest Man of the Week

Sure, Christian's ROI was the highest in the land of qualifiers at 272%, however he was only 35% ahead of the player in 2nd place in FCS. When we aggregate the ROI and the ROI margin, Hakeem Butler stands tall as the baddest WR in NCAA based on ROI, his 2nd such crown.

Touchdown Chain

Last Week, after topping the list 3 consecutive weeks, the unthinkable happened...Arcega-Whiteside fell from the top of the receptions to touchdowns ratio (compared to the qualifying average for each division). He lost by mere percentage points. Thus week, it was more decisive. Pearson from Jacksonville State can now wear the Touchdown Chain with pride as he scores at a rate 262% better than FCS average.

Top ROI WRs facing above Average Passing Defenses

For FBS WRs, we now look at the qualify of defensive competition.  The final column in the table above represents the cumulative average Passing Defense of each player's opponents, based on yards/attempt. FBS players in the Top 20 facing above average Pass Defenses).
Check out your ROI updates every week for all 4 NCAA divisions right here!

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Week 6 NCAA Wide Receiver Top 20 ROI Update! New #1 for Second Straight Week

ROI at the Halfway Mark

Sad as it is to say, Week 6 marks the halfway point for many teams' regular season. But the glass is half full so let's jump right in to the top ROI wide receivers for each NCAA division.

FBS

Notes:

• Top Man:  Eskridge moves up from the number 3 spot to take over #1 (he actually leapfrogged two players who just didn't have enough receptions to qualify for this week's survey).
• And Then There Were Four:  Green, Pinkney, Poindexter and Arcega-Whiteside have all maintained spots in each of the first 4 Top 20 ROI surveys so far this season.  (Let's see if the no-hitter jinx rules apply here.)
• Double Up:  Both Washington State and Old Dominion have two players in this week's Top 20. It is interesting that Wazzou's QB completion % is 8.5% above average while OD has to work with QBs with comp%  -3.5% below the line.
• Right School, Wrong Guy?:  Buffalo, Texas and West Virginia all have highly touted receivers this year but their teammates have proven to  be able to do more with less. 

FCS

• Ferguson jumped one place to the number 1 spot. If his name seems at all familiar to you, it may be because this  former all-state (LA) WR was an LSU Tigert for two seasons before transferring.  Oh, and his brother is LA Tech DE Jaylon Ferguson.  
• Christian of Marist, who came to light as a highly efficient WR last year when he appeared on our list, made a move, jumping 8 spots to #2. He has the track background to make an impact at the next level if he can secure a combine invite. 
• Alex Wesley makes the highest FCS debut at #4.   A former HS all-state (TX) WR, he has been part of the Northern Colorado track team competing in the 400m.

Division II

• Back in Stride Again:  Duverger repeats as D2 #1 maintaining his huge margin compared to the #2 man.  We'll see if he can convert his high efficiency into NFL draft interest. 
• Harris of Assumption may measure 5'6" 170 lbs, but the dude can ball.  He set the D2 record for career return TDs in his junior year...he can only add to his record in this his senior year (he's added 1 more for a career total of 13). Conference Rookie of the year as a freshman to an All-American last year, he's hoping his versatility will add to his draft value.
• Highest D2 debut at #6 is Sesay of Bowie State.  Dude is a bit thin compared to the average FBS receiver listed at 6'4" 175 lbs, however he has the accomplishments over his HS (all-state out of MD) and college (All Conference selection) careers to garner attention.  If he can somehow find his meal card and add 25 lbs, we may have something, here. 

Division III

• Victor of Allegheny made a big jump from #10 last week to the top spot. D3 guys are at this level for a reason and for Victor, it seems that, despite his a 3 time All-County selection in his hometown of Miami (a Dade All-County selection is far superior to being All-State in probably 40 states), his being listed at 5'8" 180 lbs likely kept him out of  the other NCAA divisions.  Regardless, this two time state champion in wrestling has the drive and heart to make some noise. 
• Top senior is Beatty out of Macalester was all-state (KS) in HS and played QB, receiver and safety his freshman year in college, earning a rookie All-American spot. He was named All-Conference in his sophomore and junior years. He is one to keep an eye on.

Bad Man of the Week

Across all NCAA football the Top Man is Eskridge who unseats Duverger with top ROI and ROI Margin (compared to the #2 finisher in that division).  Let's see if he can hold off the competition for at least a week.

Touchdown Chain

Looking at all 4 Divisions, let's take a look at who generates TDs at the quickest pace based on Receptions to Touchdown Ratio (RTDR).

After 3 consecutive weeks wearing the Touchdown Chain, Arcega-Whiteside gives it up to Doran by mere percentage points.  

Check out your ROI updates every week for all 4 NCAA divisions right here!

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Week 5 of NCAA's Most Efficient Wide Receivers...with a NEW # 1

Week #5 

Welcome back for the third Wide Receiver Return on Investment (ROI) Top Efficiency lists for college football through Week 5 of the 2018 season.  For those of you not familiar with ROI it is an efficiency measure that allows college receivers to be measured side by side.  Regardless if a player is in a run heavy or pass heavy offense or is a second option in an offense that has a household name receiver as its focal point, ROI clarifies so we can see who gets the most production out of his opportunities.  The FBS list will be updated weekly with rotational coverage of FCS, Division II and Division III through the Bowl/Championship season all the way to the NFL Player Draft where we have used ROI to uncover gems.   This past week in the NFL, the Top ROI WR for 2017, Keke Coutee made the record books in his debut, smashing decades old records.   

This week we will look at FBS and go back to a broader update across the other NCAA football divisions in our Week 6 update.

FBS

Same old song and dance...Hakeem Butler is just a man among boys at this point in the season.

• Room at the Top - Although the 1-2 punch of Butler and Hall remained unchanged, we make way for a first timer who debuted at #3 in Eskridge, a 5'9", 190 lb former HS all-State (IN) running back.  He was first listed as a WR in his sophomore season and went on to lead the team in receiving yards and yards per reception.
• Welcome Back, Welcome Back, Welcome Back... - After taking a week off, we find Custis, Osborn amd Duhart making their way into the Top 20 again.  We'll see how long they last. 
• New Jack City- Besides Eskridge, other first timers on the list include Davis, Winston Jr., Patmon, Richardson and Miller.  Looking forward to watching footage of each to see if they have the skill sets to remain on this list. 
• Quantum Leap - Of players remaining on the list from last week, Gaither made the biggest jump 10 spots to #5.  He is at my son's top college choice of San Jose State, so he is likely to get hyped up by this space throughout the year. 

Bad Man of the Week

Although the FCS, DII and DIII tables will return in Week 6, we will present the top ROI receivers in each division:

• #4 Kolin Shulte from Wartburg College in Iowa was a HS QB before switching positions to become the leading receiver in this, his junior season.  His ROI was 200% above average for D3 but he was only 10% ahead of the second most efficient WR based on our criteria.
• #3 Josh Wilkes was originally destined to Eastern Michigan however, reworked his plan and had a stint at Butler CC before arriving at Arkansas - Pine Bluff.  He set a school record earlier this year with a 244 yard performance. He has ROI of 267%, with an ROI margin of 43%.
• #2 is Hakeem Butler, our FBS #1 ROI receiver for the 2nd straight week.  His ROI is a ridiculous 318% better than average and he was 54% better than the #2 receiver.
• #1 is UVA-Wise receiver Kaian Duverger with a jaw dropping 333% ROI (he is that much more efficient than the average D2 WR) and has a ROI Margin of 167% between himself and the next guy.

Finding himself at the top of the ROI and ROI Margin, Duverger is a Bad, Bad Man.

Rumors that Duverger dropped out of pre-Kindergarten because "he don't play" have not been substantiated.

Touchdown Chain

Looking at all 4 Divisions, let's take a look at who generates TDs at the quickest pace based on Receptions to Touchdown Ratio (RTDR).

• #4 here is Top Dog Kaian Duverger showing he can get in the end zone also with a Rec/TD ratio of 4.0x.  Based on the average REC/TD ratio for the Top 20 ROI WRs in D2, his ratio is 93% better than average.
• #3 is Josh Wilkes, not to be outdone by Duverger for his appearance on both lists this week.  He had a RTDR of 4.8x which was 108% better than the FCS Top 20 ROI average.
• #2 is Andrew Barker of Marietta who leads D3 with RTDR a TD every 2.7 Receptions.  Stacked up against his direct competitors he is 128% better than average.
• This man has a death grip on the Touchdown Chain, in this, his third straight week as TD King: JJ Arcega-Whiteside has a TD every 2.8 however, because his peer group average RTDR is 9.2x, his RTDR/Avg is 235%. 

Check out your ROI updates every week for all 4 NCAA divisions right here!

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or at my Facebook page:  Boombearjr Football Analysis (also @boombearjr).

Continue to watch this space for more NFL Draft commentary.