2017 Pre-Season FBS Wide Receiver Return on Investment Top Ten

2017 NCAA Football Season is Near!

It’s August and the most wonderful time of the year is almost upon up…college football season!  This space continues its mission of analyzing wide receiver efficiency/efficacy through the Return on Investment percentages.  Based on statistics for the 2016-17 FBS season, the 10 players listed below consistently generated the most production from their reception opportunities.

What is Return on Investment?

Return on Investment for WRs is based on measuring how much better a player is than his teammates at producing receptions compared to target opportunities and yards compared to reception opportunities.  The aggregate of these percentages gives us a player’s ROI.  And while one player may be in a run first offense, another in a pass first and another in a balanced system, volume does not benefit the WR in this analysis as all statistics are based on rates.

For more on ROI, please review this article.

Who's Eligible?

To be eligible for this survey, WRs had to have a minimum of 41 receptions (which was the average for the Top 150 receivers based on reception yards, last year) in the 2016-17 season.  Remember, ROI is NOT intended as a ranking systems in itself, rather, it was developed as a screening system to potential isolate potential NFL draft prospects for further analysis and review.  This will be the fourth year of using ROI as a screening metric and the second  consecutive year in using the same exact formula and methodologies, so we can begin to track the successes and (failures) of the system. 

The Top  

1.  Shaedon Meadors Appalachian State 6’2” Senior ROI 38.947%– With 698 yards on 43 receptions, the former member of USA Today’s All USA South Carolina team accounted for 22.8% of his teams total receptions and cranked out 31.6% of App State’s total receiving yards.  He produced 38.947% more yards than his reception distribution, good for the top spot.  Senior QB Taylor Lamb, who has started for the Mountaineers since his true freshman season, is back under center behind a line that returns 3 of 5 starters.   The familiarity should help Meadors remain consistent.  Compared to the average ROI of 18.0% for the top 150 WRs (in terms of Reception yards), Meadors is 117% more efficient than the average WR. 
2. Nick Westbrook Indiana University 6’3 Junior ROI 38.861%– Westbrook was in the top 50 WRs in terms of yardage with 915 yards on 49 receptions.  He represented 19.8% of team receptions and 27.4% of team reception yards for a ROI of 38.861%.  Granted, the team’s 2015 leading receiver Simmie Cobbs missed last year due to injury, but Westbrook, a former high school All State football player who also lettered in track and lacrosse, will look to capitalize on his relationship with returning Sr QB Richard Lagow who will be protected by 3 returning starting offensive linemen.   ROI is 116% above average.
3. Ahmmon Richards University of Miami 6’1” 192 lbs Sophomore ROI 37.094% - This former consensus 4 star HS prospect quietly generated 866 yards (26.4% of team receiving yards) on 46 receptions (19.2% of team receptions).  With Brad Kaaya’s (DET) departure to the NFL, Richards will need to get in synch with whomever earns the job.  The new QB will at least have 4 experienced starters back on the OL who have hopefully jelled as a unit.  ROI is 106% above average.
4.  Cody Thompson University of Toledo 6’2” 205 lbs Senior ROI 37.091% - This former HS QB (who also served as punter) had a solid year with 1,170 yards (29.6%) on 59 receptions (21.6%).  He will be joined by his fellow All MAC receiver Jon’Vea Johnson and returning Sr. QB Logan Woodside (who gets back 3 of 5 starting OL including his Left Tackle and Center) to continue to cause havoc through the league.  I don’t see how Thompson doesn’t continue his onslaught in 2017.   ROI is 106% above average.
5.  James Washington Oklahoma State University 6’0” 205 lbs.  Senior ROI 36.741% - After pulling down 60 catches (23.0%) for 1159 yards (31.4%), what does JW do for an encore?  We shall see.  This former high school All-State selection and state champion was also district MVP in basketball and all league in TENNIS…tennis?  I bet if you put a saddle on him he could show in the Kentucky Derby.  He gets back Top QB conversation gunslinger Mason Rudolph and 3 of 5 returning linemen.  If you don’t love him, take a look at this and tell me you do not love him so we can revoke your human being card. ROI is 104% above average.
6. Demetris Robertson Cal-Berkley 6’0” 190 lbs. Sophomore ROI 36.443% - Gotta be honest.  After Jared Goff (LAR) left for the pros, I sort of forgot about Cal.  Sure, Chad Henson (NYJ) was entertaining but beyond that I would get distracted.  So when Robertson screened out with 50 catches (13.1%) and 767 reception yards (17.8%) I was like, “who?”  A 3 sport high school athlete who was a “Swiss Army Knife”, he’s going to have to rely on his wits out there with no marque replacement for last year’s “name” QB Davis Webb (NYG) with new starting tackles and LG.  ROI is 103% above average.
7. Allenzae Staggers Southern Mississippi 6’1” 190 lbs. Senior ROI 32.399% - Totaling 935 yards (26.5%) on 52 catches (20.0%), Staggers has his work cut out for him.  He loses the Golden Eagles’ all-time leading passer in Nick Mullens (SF) with no apparent heir apparent and the left side of his OL has moved on leaving 2 of last year’s 5 starters.  A former All State multi-sport athlete, if Staggers can continue his productivity under these circumstances, he will definitely improve his overall draft stock.  ROI is 80% above average.
8. Shay Fields University of Colorado 5’11” 175lbs. Senior ROI 31.507% - Although the Buffaloes lost QB Sefo Liufau (TB) to the NFL, his replacement and new current QB Steven Montez filled in for Liufau during his injury plagued season.  So, at least Fields generated some of his 50 catches (19.3%) and 819 yards (25.4%) from his new full time starting QB.  The Buffs bring back the whole starting OL except the RG so, if Montez can stay vertical, it could mean big things for Fields.  ROI is 75% above average. 
9. Jamire Jordan Fresno State University 5’11” 171lbs. Junior ROI 30.126% - Derek Carr’s former Bulldog locker may have been still a bit warm last year when the Bulldogs took a single victory the entire season…against FCS Sacramento State, yet!   New head coach Jeff Tedford will definitely have ideas for improvement and Jordan, who notched 45 catches (21.4%) for 713 yards (27.9%), is a hopeful beneficiary.  In terms of returning starters, Jordan gets back his QB, 4 of 5 Offensive Linemen (including the LT and C) and Tight End. If the blocking gets right, Jordan looks to show improvement. ROI is 68% above average.
10. Tre’Quan Smith University of Central Florida 6’1” 200 Junior ROI 29.699% - Although Smith started playing football relatively late (in his Jr year of high school), he obviously has a natural feel for the game, evidenced by 54 catches (24.8%) for 808 yards (32.1%).  He’s hoping 2^nd year coach and returning starting Sophomore QB Mackenzie Milton can help him improve and place himself in the NFL draft conversation. ROI is 65% above average.

 While crunching the numbers, I noticed a couple of interesting things:

Observations

Bring the Gravy I.V. – Based on simple body density (that is weight in lbs divided by height in inches), the top 10 are not as solid at the average WR for the 2016 player combine (based on their statistics listed on their schools websites):

2016 NFL Player Combine WR Average simple body density : 2.79 lbs/inch

• Nick Westsbrook:  2.87 lbs/inch  (2.7% above average)
• James Washington: 2.85 lbs/inch (+2.0%)
• Cody Thompson:  2.77 lbs/inch (-0.7%)
• Tre’Quan Smith:  2.74 lbs/inch (-1.8%)
• Denetrus Robertson 2.64  lbs/inch (-5.7%)
• Ahmmon Richards 2.63 lbs/inch (-6.1%)
• Allenzae Staggers 2.60 lbs/inch (-7.2%)
• Shay Fields 2.46 lbs/inch (-13.2%)
• Shaedon Meadors 2.43 lbs/inch (-14.7%)
• Jamire Jordan:  2.41 lbs/inch (-15.8%)

In 2016, the average simple body density for the NFL’s top 30 WRs based on reception yards was about 2.89.  Somebody's grandma needs to be on staff at the player's dining hall. 

Touchdown Machines – Based on the qualified WRs in our survey, the following dudes are just TD beasts, crushing the average rate for a score of 11 receptions for 1 TD:

• Dante Pettis University of Washington Senior – A TD every 3.5 receptions.
• Cedrick Wilson Boise State – Rec/TD rate of 5.0
• Jonathan Giles Texas Tech (sitting out this year given LSU transfer) - Rec/TD rate of 5.3
• Shay Fields Rec/TD rate of 5.6
• Jonathan Duhart – Old Dominion Senior Rec/TD rate of 5.6
• Wyatt Demps  Nevada Senior Rec/TD rate of 5.9
• Cody Thompson Rec/TD rate of 5.9
• Michael Gallup Colorado State Senior Rec/TD rate of 6.4
• Equanimeous St. Brown Notre Dame Junior Rec/TD rate of 6.4
• James Washington Rec/TD rate of 6.7

Sure, Blame the QB – In an attempt to account for QB accuracy (let’s face it, that has a lot to do with being a successful receiver), the ROI metrics were normalized based on the QB completion percentage for FBS of 60.3%.  The guys how were already efficient by being above the average ROI despite crappy QB play get love here:

1. Malik Turner Illinois Senior – Turner gathered 48 receptions for 712 yards and 6 touchdowns despite having a team passing completion percentage that was 17.9% below average.  His QB adjusted ROI is 38.5%
2. Jamire Jordan –His QBs were 16.2% off the average boosting him to 38.2% ROI.
3. Tre’Quan Smith  - His passing attack was off by 10.6%, giving him adjusted ROI of 35.0%
4. Courtland Sutton Southern Methodist Junior- Despite the QB completion percentage off by 10.8%, Sutton put together a solid 76/1246/10 stat line in 2016.  If he has worked on the finer points of his game over the summer, he will most likely enter the 2018 NFL Player Draft as a high projected pick. 
5. Devonte Boyd UNLV Senior The WAC constantly hides gem receivers three of which over as many years, have been some of my favorite prospects.  Two years ago it was Josh McCain of Idaho (did not receive an NFL offer despite leading the conference in receiving), last year it was Marcus Kemp (KC undrafted FA) of Hawai’I and this year Boyd. His QB play was the league worst at 28.4% off the average yet his QB adjusted ROI was 31.2% driven by a 45/746/4 stat line.  I am a huge fan of this man. 

As we get closer to opening kickoff, keep an eye out for the above.

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