Glory Days
Last year, we reviewed the 1st DraftTwitter Top 100 NFL Draft Top Propsects for 2017 - an aggregate list made up of contributions from average ordinary schmoes like you. After crunching the numbers, our picks provided more value per our method than the actual NFL draft. There was much celebrating amongst the people and joy in the land!
Fast forward to today's review of the 2018 draft: DraftTwitter compared to the Actual (check out The People's Top 100 from last year here...)
The Method
Step I - Position Groups
The process of comparing picks can be quite subjective. Baker Mayfield went #1 in the draft but the People selected Quenton Nelson the top prospect overall. One is a highly visible QB,the other is an interior offensive lineman who doesn't generate commonly distributed statistics. So how do we compare them?
This analysis simply breaks up the draft into Position Groups (that is, centers, safeties, guards, etc) and evaluates the baskets; but how are they evaluated?
Step II - Snaps, not Stats
As seen above, it would be surprising if anyone could get concurrence from a large group that using stats to compare a QB vs a G would be a clear cut way to measure one against the other. A previous article comparing the results of the 2017 DraftTwitter draft on a per Scout basis used games started as a barometer for success in the league. The rationale there was the coach will start the players who give him the best chance to help the team win the game.
In comparing the players in the way described in Step 1, above, this quickly proved to be ineffective. It was found that a player's % of Total (offensive or defensive, as the case may be) Snaps gives a better picture of how much that player's coach relies on him to contribute to his team's success.
So, in order to remove the subjectivity from the debate, the judging was predicated not on yards or tackles or touchdowns (which stats don't apply to many players or can be misleading in many cases) but on the percentage of Total Snaps as well as Average Draft Position (ADP) of the players in that peer group.
Step III - The Cobra Kai Rule: No Mercy
One could argue that exclusion of players who were injured and placed on injured reserve or simply did not make a team was fair so as to not tank averages with a bunch of zeros but...where's the fun in that?!? No mercy, you made the picks now deal with it. So players like Isaiah Wynn, who started the season on injured reserve after being a top 40 pick, was a double edge sword in tanking both metrics.
Step IV - Add'em Up: The Showdown Part II: DraftTwitter vs. the NFL Draft
So what you are looking at above breaks out each player position and shows how much better (positive) or worse (negative) than the actual draft our survey performed. For example, the "Edge" players included in the People's Top 100 participated in 38.2% fewer defensive snaps than the "Edge" guys in the first 100 NFL selections in 2018. This is partially offset by the average ADP being 2.2% higher resulting in an adjusted Deficit value for the People of -37.4%; that is, the league got 37.4% more value out of that position than we did. YEET!
On an aggregate basis, the People got smoked with the Shield getting over 87% greater value out of their Top 100 picks. Let's take a deeper look...
Theory vs Reality - That arguably the best player in the draft (Nelson) was picked 6th because he is a guard tells you more than just talent goes into these decisions. When you draft a guy high, you had better get him on the field. Naturally, the highest drafted players get trotted out unless their game puts the "ink" in stink.
- Average Snap % for NFL Top 20: 80.9%
- Average Snap % for the People's Top 20: 72.0%
Dice Rolls - Let's face it...fans dream of being GM of their favorite team. We can get a little bit carried away. And in 2018, the People were just a bit too gung ho about players for whom we would "pound the table". Gambles on guys we like who didn't get on the field enough hurt our performance vs. the NFL because, as we learned above, teams are going to play their high draft picks no matter what.
- Average ADP of Low Impact Snap % Players for actual draft was 65.2
- Average ADP of Low Impact Snap % Players for the People's Top 100 was 67.3
We will define Low Impact Snap % Players as those more than 1 standard deviation below the mean. Although the difference in this case is relatively small at 2.1, the Shield had only 16 of such players in their top 100 while the People had 23. That's about 44% more players dragging down the numbers.
Team Blutarsky - The Cobra Kai rule bit the People in the soft meat, that's for sure. Injuries contributed to a 100% increase in zero point zero Snap % for the People (10) compared to the NFL actual draft (5). Fat, drunk and on injured reserve is no way to go through life, son.
Summarily...
The People got housed. And it was really bad. But, with so many players injured, we're hoping we can rebound in the second year of the 2018 draft class to eliminate or, at least, close the gap.
Keep an eye on this space for the Sophomore Report for an update of the People's Top 100 vs. the actual NFL draft...we were ahead by less than 2% at the end of the 2017 season...check back to see how well that group has seasoned in year 2!
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It's That Time of Year!!!
The 3rd Annual People's Top 100 survey is our right now! It's 100% free and 97.3% fun!
Just leave a comment or shoot me an email to boombearfootballmail@gmail.com for an email link to the online Excel worksheet form with dropdown lists for ease of use!
No pressure, just have fun.
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