Attack, Bleed and Burn
Cornerback is one of the most impactful positions on a football field. A great one can eliminate the opponent's best receiving weapon and a bad one is a liability that can throw the entire defense into chaos.
There is a bit of change in the Burn Ratio calculation to include the under appreciated Forced Fumbles in the metric. Let's take a look at cornerback performance based on the following Z scores:
- Attack Ratio: Average of Passes Defended/(Passes Defended+Completions Allowed) and Total Targets/Total Snaps
- Bleed Ratio: Total Yards Against/Total Snaps
- Burn Ratio: (Total Interceptions+50% of Forced Fumbles/Total Snaps) minus (Total Touchdowns/Total Snaps)
Let's look at player performance through Week 6.
(Note: The cutoff for qualifying was 204 snaps.)
Player Performance
Attack Ratio - Who's Hot?
- No one wants any of Tre'Davious White which makes sense because when you do, he doesn't give up any yards. You can score on him though and he is not a threat to cause turnovers right now.
- Xavien Howard is the only man on this list with a below average Bleed and just barely, so OC's are making the right decision to avoid him.
- Daryl Worley has not been thrown at but that might change given his Burn.
Attack Ratio - Who's Not?
- Welcome to the National Football League, Jeff Okudah. He's getting a trial by fire in his rookie year with high Attack and Bleed ratios but he's not getting Burned so we'll see if the bend but don't break strategy works long term.
- Teams like to look for Jimmy Moreland and Bless Austin, but that is s serious risk given above average Bleed and Burn.
Bleed Ratio - Who's Hot?
- Jimmy Smith is stingy. Scrooge McDuck Stingy in terms of yards.
- Every player who has a high Bleed also has above average Attack, so OCs respect them.
Bleed Ratio - Who's Not?
- This list is loaded with rookies and second year guys who have been thrown in the deep end of the pool. Let's see who swims.
- When you see veterans like Griffin, Mitchell, Hayward and Nelson sporting Bottom 10 Bleed Z and negative Attack and Burn, you have to take a closer look at each situation. (Griffin looked great in his last game before the bye).
Burn Ratio - Who's Hot?
- In terms of causing turnovers vs allowing touchdowns, you don't want to flex with Xavien Howard. This, plus his near average Bleed, is likely why his Attack is 1 standard deviation above average.
- Marlon Humphrey benefited from the modified calculation including 50% of forced fumbles (not full credit because it's 50/50 you recover and end the other team's drive) since he is responsible for 4 forced fumbles which leads the league and is twice as many as rookie Michael Ojemudia.
Burn Ratio - Who's Not?
- Charvarius Ward has allowed 3 touchdowns with no interceptions or forced fumbles in 227 snaps. The best we can hope is he plays limited snaps so he no longer qualifies for the minimum snap count for inclusion here.
- I saw Daryl Worley's name all over social media during the DAL-ARI game so I can't wait to watch the replay to see what happened to him He is pretty solid in terms of Attack and Bleed so I guess he got confused on some short yardage plays that led to touchdowns?
3 Score Z - When we average the Attack, Bleed and Burn Z scores, we get the 3 Score Z.
3 Score Z - Who's Hot?
- This analysis is through Week 6 so the impact of the Thursday night NYG-PHI game is not included which may be good for Bradberry who was #1 overall at the end of last week.
- Tre'Davious White will be known as TD if he doesn't work on his Burn Ratio. He is the only one on the list with a significantly worse than average ratio. Will have to see what's up there.
3 Score Z - Who's Not?
- Mostly young players who have to get their feet wet. Will be anxious to see if they can land on their feet.
- The veterans here (Griffin, Nelson and Hayward) are going to have to keep grinding.
Team Review
Usually I have charts comparing team performance to their next opponent's passing game but I will start putting that out as a separate posting with a bit of a format change. Keep an eye out for it and also for the Week 7 update of individual Cornerback Attack, Bleed and Burn ratios next week.
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