Saturday, December 21, 2019

NFL Power Rankings Through Week 15!

Games Still Matter

Thanks to an incomplete playoffs picture, all games still matter this week as teams fight just to make their way into the postseason  and jockey for position for a home game while others look to play spoiler,  

Here's the Power Rankings:


  •  Green columns are This Week's Rankings, the Average Ranking of the Experts and the difference between the current week's rankings.
  • Light Blue columns are Last Week's Rankings, how off the Experts were this week from their rankings for the same teams last week and finally, the difference between my week over week performance compared to the Experts to show who was farther off each pick. Negative numbers mean I was closer to the proper rank (based on the rank the following week), positive, means the Experts were closer. In each case, the "winner" made fewer adjustments and thus was more accurate.
    • This week, I had 16 teams where I had smaller week over week modifications than the experts who had only 9 where they modified less than me.  There were 7 ties.
Working on individual charts for each team showing their weekly Power Ranking to show consistency or lack thereof for me vs . the Experts coming soon!



Strength of Schedule


Let's get at it:




  • Based on the aggregate average weighted strength of each teams' opponents separated into wins and losses, we have the table above which shows the difficulty of each teams' schedule thus far, going from most difficult at the top going down.
  • The colored column breaks out the distribution with Yellow as withing 1 standard deviation from the mean (plain yellow is above the mean, bold yellow is below), 
    • Orange is greater than 1 standard deviation from the mean but less than 2; Green is less than.
    • There is, unfortunately, one red team (greater than 2 deviations above the mean) but CIN has had the toughest schedule wire to wire so far. No blue team (greater than 2 StDev below the mean).
  • Top 10 most difficult schedule but still with winning records:  SEA, KC, HOU and LAR.
  • Top 10 easiest schedule but still with losing records: NYJ and LAC.  Pobrecitos. 
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Until next time, check out other articles:

  1. College Football Tackles for Loss Analysis for NFL Draft
  2. NFL - What Playoff Teams are Paying Each Position Vs. Cellar Dweller Teams
  3. College Football Wide Receiver Efficiency Analysis 
  4. NFL - Livin' on the Edge - What Draft Round Produces the Best Pass Rusher Values
  5. NFL - Does QB Aggressiveness Impact Overall Performance? 










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