Got to Give the People, Give the People What They Want
Let's look back at the 2018 NFL draft compared to the 2nd Annual "The People's" Top 100 survey. For those unfamiliar, this author asked talent evaluators for their Top 100 players both pre and post Combine and aggregated the results. The column reviewing the 2017 NFL Draft is located here.
The results will be tracked year after year to show how The Peoples' results fare against the actual draft. The comparison of the People vs the NFL for the last year's 2017 draft can be found here.
For now, the People's results for the 2018 Draft have been compared to the actual to determine what selections were the biggest values and which were the biggest reaches.
Value, Value, Value...
Value is basically a comparison of two view points - in this case, we need to determine how much does Player X mean to the NFL in comparison to The People.
For our analysis, each player on The Peoples' Top 100 is compared to his placing in the actual draft to determine a rate of value (undervalued or overvalued) based on their rookie contract value for their actual draft position compared to the contract value at our draft position. The methodology is easier to understand in context, so let's get into it.
Best Values
There are always players who drop for silly reasons and others who simply fall off the mass media radar during the College Football season. But, there are always astute scouts and coaches who will continue to wait patiently and take advantage of these overlooked gems.
- The players in the table were 1 Standard Deviation above all other "value" players, that is those whose People's Rank was better than their Actual Draft Position.
- Value is not simply a function of the difference between the Rank and actual Draft spot, it depends on the difference in the contract values between the two.
- Because the rookie salary scale is such a steep curve, you can have Meeks fall 192 places (as an UDFA, we assumed a Draft position of 259) and not be a better value than guys who fell far fewer places because they were projected to go higher.
- Maurice Hurst, a guy who had me screaming at the television for teams to draft as he went into freefall, finally went to Oakland at 140 overall after penciling out to the #20 player based on the Peoples' Aggregate Top 100.
- It seems GMs were concerned because a heart issue was detected during Combine physicals.
- Hurst has indicated he went though the exact same issue when he got to Michigan and, obviously, it turned out not to be a hindrance to his stellar career as a Wolverine.
- His overall value is being recognized in the media now, as USAToday believes, "...he could be the biggest steal of this year's draft."
- There were 3 other Peoples' Top 20 players who ended up on the biggest values list.
- Harold Landry - Peoples' Rank #10; Actually Drafted #41 - There were many questions about his 2017 performance being off 2016 pace but Landry was clearly slowed by an injury early in the season. The Titans may have gotten great value here.
- Derrius Guice - Peoples' Rank #13; Actually Drafted #59 - The Rumor Mill was just churning at top speed during the NFL draft as to why Guice, who put up statistical performances that would make his LSU predecessor Leonard Fournette envious, was in freefall. WAS finally pulled the trigger in the late 2nd round getting him at about an 80% discount.
- Connor Williams - Peoples' Rank #18; Actually Drafted #50 - Injury derailed his season and concerns about where on the Offensive Line to play him given his measurables were cited are reasons to give GMs pause. (This College Tackle to NFL Guard argument is tricky, as he played Tackle against guys now in the NFL for a couple of years and was effective then; why would he suddenly be a liability?). And just like that, Dallas continues to stockpile studs on that OLine.
Questionable Value
Now, this is not questioning the prospect - keep in mind, our list was for the Top 100 players, clearly the creme de la creme. However, given our methodology, here are the players who went significantly higher than the People thought they might go.
- The players in the table were greater than 1 Standard Deviation below all other "overvalued" players, that is those whose People's Rank was worse than their Actual Draft Position.
- Leighton Vander Esch (Peoples' Rank #80; Actually Drafted #19) was a beast at Boise State but in terms of being a proven commodity with just 1 year as a starter, time will tell if this suprise 1st rounder will prove the Peoples' Top 100 wrong. Jerry Jones paid a 416% premium to bring him to Dallas so expectations will be high.
- As I focus on the WR position, I have watched a lot of D.J. Moore (Peoples' Rank #51; Actually Drafted #24) and there is a lot to be excited about. But as the first WR selected?! That was not foreseen by many. Moore definitely benefited from a stellar performance at the NFL Player Combine where this author had him as the 2nd most athletic receiver. But a first round commitment for a receiver warrants certain expectations that, evidently, the NFL expects Moore to fulfill, but the People do not.
- Josh Allen (Peoples' Rank #37; Actually Drafted #7) benefited as much as anyone from a solid Combine performance and it paid him off on draft day where Buffalo valued him 275% more than the People, who had signal callers Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold and Jackson ahead of Allen.
BY POSITION
When looking at the value from a position standpoint, we have the following:
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| Only 95 picks are included in the table above because the People and the NFL agreed on 5 picks. |
- Total - The number of players at that position selected in the Top 100
- Sum - The cumulative total of each player's value position.
- #Over/#Under - Each represents the number of players at that position in that category.
- Averages
- Avg Over = The Overvalue Position of the average player at that position.
- Avg Under = The Undervalue Position of the average player at that position
- Average = The Average Value Position for each player at that position.
Overall, the league did pretty well, overvaluing just 32% in the People's Top 100.
Absolutely...PERFECT - The People and the NFL agreed upon:
- Saquon Barkley at #2
- Roquon Smith at #8
- Taven (also known as Tavquon) Bryan at #29
- Nick ("Nickquon") Chubb at #35
- Mason ("Masquon") Cole at #97
Missed It By THAT Much - The People and the NFL differed on D.J. Chark and Ian Thomas by just 1 selection.
Hi-Lo - Here are the highest and lowest values (based on The People's rankings) per position:
- Tight End
- Best Value: Mark Andrews selected #86 by BAL (39.0% discount)
- Questionable Value: Hayden Hurst selected #25 also by BAL (275.5% premium)
- Linebacker
- Best Value: Malik Jefferson selected #78 by CIN (60.2% discount)
- Questionable Value: Vander Esch (See above)
- "EDGE"
- Best Value: Landry (See above)
- Questionable Value: Uchenna Nwosu selected #48 by LAC (90.2% premium)
- Offensive Line
- Best Value: Tyrell Crosby selected # 153 by DET (66.6% discount; a hell of a deal.)
- Questionable Value: Kolton Miller selected #15 also by BAL (238.1% premium)
- Quarterback
- Best Value: Lamar Jackson selected #32 by BAL (46.6% discount)
- Questionable Value: Allen (See above)
- Running Back
- Best Value: Guice (see above)
- Questionable Value: Rashaad Penny selected #27 by SEA (148.8% premium)
- Cornerback
- Best Value: Isaiah Oliver selected #58 by ATL (66.2% discount)
- Questionable Value: Denzel Ward selected #4 by CLE (87.7% premium)
- Safety
- Best Value: Ronnie Harrison selected #93 by JAX (77.5% discount)
- Questionable Value: Jessie Bates selected #54 by CIN (64.6% premium)
- Wide Receiver
- Best Value: Auden Tate selected #253 by CIN (61.8% discount)
- Questionable Value: Moore (see above)
- Defensive Line
- Best Value: Hurst (See above)
- Questionable Value: Da'Ron Payne selected #13 by WAS (41.4% premium)
By Team
Teams were ranked in four categories: (1) Range of Value selections; (2) Average Value Position drafted, (3) Percentage of picks at par to value or better and (4) Cumulative Value Position for all draftees.
Avg Rank indicates that Team's average Rank (relative to the other 32 teams) for each of the above four criteria.
The teams in Bold Italics highlighted in Green are playoff teams from 2017.
The Rich Get Richer
- 50% of the playoff teams rested in the Top 10 best drafts in terms of player value.
- The mean for Avg Rank was 16.5; 75% of last year's playoff teams were above the mean.
- Playoff teams had the Most and Least efficient drafts from our value standpoint
- LAR picked up Ogbonnia Okoronkwo at 160 when the People had him at 57 (a 60.0% discount) and John Kelly at 176, compared to 90 for value of -47.1%.
- CAR selected Ian Thomas at 101, 1 place off the People for a discount of about 1.3%, Donte Jackson was picked up at 55 compared to the 61 rank by our survey, worth a 13.7% premium but D.J. Moore drove this ranking with his 409% premium (see above).
Conclusion
After the 2018 season, return to this space for a comparison of how the Peoples' Top 100 compared to the actual NFL draft in terms of on the field performance. We will also update the 2017 People's Top 100 performance vs. the League when we will have 2 years of data. Last year we outperformed the league in terms of how our draft picks performed considering where they were drafted (from a value perspective) and so we will look to keep each People's list updated year after year to keep marking how well we perform.
In the interim, feel free to reach out to me via Twitter @boombearjr.
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