Own Worst Enemy
Recently, I looked at how some of the prospects in the upcoming NFL draft responded to pressure (see the post right here). With defenders in their faces, we looked at who was able to overcome the pressure and put up numbers. Performing well under pressure is a desirable characteristic but let's not forget how critical it is to limit one's own mistakes in a clean pocket. But which players were most prone to making unforced errors? Let's take a look.
The Data
Data for this analysis is pulled from PFF.com. For this exercise, Unforced Errors are:
- Interceptions
- Sacks
- Batted Passes
- Turnover Worthy Plays which are a PFF metric defined as "a pass that has a high percentage chance to be intercepted or a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling".
It is acknowledged that all of the above can be debated as potentially being "forced errors". However, given the QB is ultimately responsible for making the decision of where to go with ball we consider the above errors "unforced".
The Unforced Error numbers for Total Plays and Pressure Plays were compiled to calculate the Unforced Errors percentage ([Total Plays Unforced Errors minus Pressure Plays Unforced Errors] divided by Total Plays Unforced Errors). The Z-score (representing the number of standard deviations from the mean) is also calculated.
Here are the results:
Comments
- Table is sorted by 2020 performance and includes 2019 numbers.
- Trey Lance is offset from the rest of the table because he had just one start in 2020 which reflect horrible numbers; his 2019 numbers looked good.
- Sam Ehlinger had the lowest Unforced Error % and showed improvement of 9.7% over 2019.
- Mac Jones, who had the best numbers under pressure from my prior analysis, is pretty abysmal when it comes to avoiding unforced errors with 2/3 of his tracked errors coming with no pressure.
- Justin Fields increased the most on a percentage basis (by 13.0% year over year) however, he still remained above average in terms of Z score.
- Ian Book improved the most reducing his forced errors by 23.3%.
- Presumptive QB1 Trevor Lawrence and QB2 Zach Wilson are at the wrong end of the the unforced errors table with both below average based on the criteria.
- Lawrence also had below average performance numbers for my QB pressure article, so perhaps these areas could be a point of emphasis for his coaching staff during his rookie season in Jacksonville.
- Kyle Trask, who could be QB6 coming off the board, was very consistent with performance well above average both here and in the pressure performance article.
Final Thoughts
Of course, the table above is not a ranking nor is it a prognostication for the order the QBs who will be picked this April. It is not as an attempt to "win' an argument with some random numbers, but this exercise as a whole should be used a tool to help when watching game footage to see what is causing these unforced errors to accumulate or if the errors are even of a magnitude to be included in any scouting evaluation. You can be the judge of that.
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Don't Stop Now, You Quitter! Other Posts To Read
Comparing Free Agency Spending with Performance over 10 Years - Looking for Free Agency trends that to see how they impact winning.
QB Prospect Response to Pressure Analysis - 2020 - Taking a look at the NFL Draft Prospects for 2021 when the heat is on . https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2021/02/qb-prospect-response-to-pressure.html
Jets Reset Part II - The Elephant in the Room - Part II of my look at my NY Jets and this time we have to attack head on the issue of the quarterback. https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2021/02/jets-reset-part-ii-elephant-in-room.html
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