Who’s on First? – Determining the “Safest” College Football Draft Selections by Position based on Historical Starts of First Round Picks between 2005 and 2014

Overview

This analysis intends to determine which position players provide the most long term “upside” based on the average number of season starts for 1^st round draft picks between 2004 and 2015.  Player Starts is used as the measure of player value in this analysis.  Starts is considered a preferred measure of value because starting players are often considered the best option for a team to win, thus a starting assignment validates a player’s supremacy at his position.  Hence, the relationship between average number of starts per season and a player’s value to his franchise is assumed to be direct.

The Data – The analysis considers the following data:

1.       The list of 319 players selected in the first round of the NFL player draft from the ten year period between 2005 to 2014. 

2.       The number of average starts per season of each player over their respective careers; years player may have been inactive due to injury, suspension, etc. were not included.

3.       2017 NFL rookie contract values for 1^st round players were used to assess the relative “value” of each player position to the others in the survey.  This quantifies the perceived value in selecting higher or lower in the first round.

Metrics - Analysis on a per-player and per position group basis was carried out.

                Fourteen player positions: C, CB, DE, DT, FS, G, ILB/LB, OLB, QB, RB, SS, T, TE, WR

1.  Average Draft Position for each Group was calculated based on the aggregate draft position of all players (at each of the 14 positions) divided by the number of players in each  position group.
2.   Average Starts (per Season) was calculated by taking the average of each player’s total starts over their careers divided by the number of seasons they played (2017 excluded).  This was aggregated to calculate the figure on a position level.
3.  Overall Standard Deviation represents the distribution of all 319 draft picks Average Starts relative to the Overall Average (entire draftee group average).
4.  Positional Standard Deviation represents the distribution of picks across each respective position group relative to the Positional Average (that is, each position group average).
5.  Outperform Ratio: Based on the number of players above each of the Overall Average and the Positional Average compared to those below each average. 
6.   ADP Salary assumes the cost for the average player at each position based on the Average Draft Position for the group (always rounding up) based on actual 2017 rookie contract values.
7.   ADP Salary per Average Start establishes the base “cost” for players at each respective position.
8.   Salary Premium reflects how much more or less than average that position’s ADP Salary per Average Start is (the lower, the better).
9.   Upside represents Outperform Ratio minus Salary Premium, which indicates the likeliness of a first round pick at that position providing more than the average amount of starts per year of his career.  The higher the Upside, the safer the pick, the lower the Upside, the riskier that position  has historically been in terms of reaching at least an average amount of starts per season.
10.   Overall Upside and Positional Upside are averaged and ranked with any ties going to the position with the higher Overall Upside. 

Here are the results:

Safest Overall Position to Draft in the First Round:  Offensive Guard – About as “boring” as it gets, 80% of the guards drafted in the first round of the 10 NFL Player Drafts between 2005 and 2014 started more than the average number of starts for all 1^st rounders during that period.  The fact that Guards were drafted at a negative Salary Premium of 18% (that is, they were that much less expensive than the aggregate ADP Salary per Average Start) helped push them to the front of the list.

Riskiest Overall Position to Draft in the First Round: Running Back – 75% of the running backs drafted during the 10 year period did not meet the average overall starts for all 1^st round draftees.  What’s more, the ADP Salary per Start was almost 26% more than average.

What about Quarterbacks? – Six signal callers went #1 overall, far more than the next position (Tackles and Defensive Ends each had 2 players selected at the top of drafts) during this period, however, based on our criteria, they were 11 out of 14 in terms of draft value.  With only approximately 58% of the survey QBs achieving better than average starts per season, it doesn’t make matters any better that the group also has the highest ADP Salary per Average Start. 

Safety Almost First? – The two Safety positions, SS and FF, were the 2^nd and 3^rd safest overall in terms of drafting for average starts.  When ADP Salary per Average Start is factored in, it is also beneficial that they are usually drafted later in the first round (SS at 14.4 ADP and FS at 22.6 ADP).

Popular Picks – Offensive Tackles generated the most first round picks during the period with 40 and proved to be 4^th   of 14 on the overall list.   The second highest number of picks were the 39 Defensive Ends who ended up 12^th of 14 given nearly 62% of their group drafted in the 1^st round did not achieve the average number of starts for the group.  

Conclusion 

Each Spring, GMs try to pick individual players during the NFL Player Draft based on any number of unknown criteria. Given the above analysis, it is clear that the historical trend can possibly provide insight into the best position groups to target based on players drafted over a 10 year period.  Despite the “sexy” skill or pass rushing positions getting significant media attention pre-draft, the “boring” rank and file positions, primarily Offensive Linemen and both Safeties have produced the highest percentage of 1^st round players with a greater than average number of more starts. This analysis does not claim to have spent anywhere near the amount of time, energy and resources as the average NFL team will spend to determine which young man they will pay a huge amount of money to with no guaranty for success at the draft.  And, while the author agrees this analysis may not be an appropriate measurement technique to pinpoint exceptional players, the results clearly show it has ascertained the safest selection pools given the historical data.