NFL 2021 QB Draft Prospects - Accuracy and Average Depth of Target.

 2021 QB Prospects - Accuracy and ADOT

Looking at statistics from PFF.com for the top NFL quarterback prospects in the NFL's Player Draft beginning this April 29th, I wanted to get an idea of what accuracy and average depth of target looked like for signal caller targeted over the last two seasons.

Here is a table with the details:

The table above was created from PFF.com data.  I was not able to find a definition for the term "Accuracy % " in the glossary of terms accompanying the data but the term is generally understood to mean percentage of  passes within the catch radius of the intended receiver. 

Thoughts:

• No Strong Correlation - First off, the statistical correlation between Accuracy% and Average Depth of Target (ADOT) was not strong based on analysis of qualifying FBS QBs in 2019 (-52%) and 2020 (-27%).  So we can't assume a higher Accuracy% is caused by lower ADOT (or the opposite).

• Return of the Mac - I wouldn't have believed it, but Mac Jones scored number one in 2019 and 2020 in terms of highest accuracy in the peer group of 2021 NFL draft QB prospects. Of course, even though I put in the disclaimer about the lack of a strong correlation, dude was dead last in terms of getting the ball downfield in 2019 and bottom 3 in 2020.

• Risk/Reward - At the bottom of Accuracy % for 2020 you will find one Trey Lance although we all know this is a big asterisk, given NDSU played exactly 1 game.  In their desperate attempt to showcase their star, he looked rusty and even gave up his first INT.  If we ignore 2020, he was above average in terms of Accuracy% in 2019 and had the second highest ADOT that year. 

• Zach Attack - The clear year over year improvement in overall performance by Zach Wilson is summed up in the table...he remained third in ADOT while gaining a half a yard in the process but jumped from last in Accuracy%  on the list all the way up to third. That is a remarkable achievement. 

• Stuck in the Middle - Presumptive first overall selection Trevor Lawrence is pretty much in the middle in terms of both rankings, both years.  

• Above the Line - When looking at performance above the mean in both Accuracy% and ADOT in all periods, Wilson and Justin Fields are the only two prospects to make the cut. 

• Lost Boys  - Not to be lost in the shuffle behind the "Big 5" QBs, Mills, Trask, Book and Mond (sounds like a law firm) are all above average in terms of QB Accuracy% compared to all qualifying FBS QBs in 2019 and 2020.  Their ADOT was generally low but, just like anything else, looking at game videos may help us understand why this is.  Ehlinger had a down 2020 in terms of Accuracy% but over both years, he can get the ball downfield.

No real conclusions to draw here, just more things to look out for when watching QB videos.  

*******************************************************************************

I NEED YOUR HELP!

Working on the 2021 Top 100 NFL Prospects Aggregate List and I need your Big Board.  If you have a top 100 player list (not a mock draft), I would love to include your rankings in the combined list that will be out the week of the NFL draft.  Take a look at last year's Top 100 list and let me know where to send your  link to an online ballot.   https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/04/boombearjrs-fourth-annual-all-social_22.html