Fourth Annual Who's Screwed 2021 NFL Draft Supply and Demand Analysis

NFL Draft is Just Days Away And Some Teams are Going to be Screwed

We are a week away from the NFL Player Draft and just as I have the last couple of years, let's take a look at which teams are in the best position to cover "need" positions and which teams are most likely to screwed when the talent runs out.

1. Determining Need - Easy enough!  Looking at the NFL.com analysis of top five needs for each team gives us our first set of data.  The needs are rated from "5" for most critical to "1" for least critical position need. (Note:  BAL is listed with only 4 needs).
2. Determining the Average Draft Position and  Average Grade of Each Position - Again sourcing NFL.com, we use their player grades to determine the Average Draft Position (ADP) and Average Grade for each position. Since we are looking at the top 5 needs for 32 teams, our prospects to fill the team needs are the 160 highest graded players according to NFL.com.
3. Critical Positions - Even if a position group has a large percentage of highly rated players, if the demand outstrips the supply, your team might be out of luck.  So we note the number of players for each position group in the top 160 and compare to the number needed by the NFL teams to determine if there is a shortfall or a surplus at each position. 
4. Draft Picks - The number of picks a team has in the first 160 selections in relation to the number of Critical Positions of high need is the crux of this exercise.  

This entire analysis discusses Draft "Need" positions based on NFL.com projections.  It's understood that the projected needs may have absolutely nothing to do with the areas each team decides to address based on their own internal priority.  But it's fun to see which teams draft more inline with these projected "Needs" and which one's do not.

Based on the info sourced above, let's take a look at the first table outlining Supply and Demand.

Supply and Demand

What does all that stuff mean?

• Pos = Player Position
• Supply = The number of players available at each position included in NFL.com Top 160.
• Demand = The numbers needed at each position based on the NFL.com Needs for each team (rated 5 for most critical need down to 1 for least critical need of the Top 5 needs).
• (Shortage)/ Surplus = Supply/Demand - 100% 
• Z Scores = The number of standard deviations from the mean.
• Avg Need = The aggregate Needs score for each position divided by the number of teams with that Position Need.  For example, 29 of 32 teams have a need at OL and their aggregate Need scores is 109 which represents an average Need score of 3.76, the highest of any position.
• Criticality = Shortage/Surplus Z Score less the Avg Need Z Score give us a raw score to represent overall need at each position.  The higher the better.
• ADP = The Average Draft Position for each player based on NFL.Com player grades.
• NFL.Com Grade = The average grade for each player position per NFL.Com

Observations

• Before the first pick is selected, we see Quarterbacks have the worst Criticality which means their 20% shortfall in Top 160 Supply to meet the Demand, coupled with their high Avg Need, this is the position to target first for teams in need of a signal caller. If you look at their NFL grade, QBs are the second highest rated position as a whole.  So, taking all this into account, we should see the trade ups we have been expecting from the media hype to pull top tier QBs off the Board before the end of the first round.
• Running Backs live up to their "don't draft in the first round" billing.  With a pre-Draft 75% surplus and the lowest Average Need position of 1.75 (no team has a RB Position Need of 5; please see the table below) there is no rush for a rusher.

Deficit Position Table and Criticality

This table shows the Supply/Demand info based on the order of each team's 1st pick in the Draft and Criticality Rank.

By Criticality

Let's go through an example of what all this means reading left to right:

• 1st Pick is simply the number of the first pick the team has in the draft.  JAX has the first pick, as we all know.  HOU is not scheduled to pick until 67.
• Top 160 Picks represents the number of picks the team has in the Top 160  picks. JAX, NYJ and MIN each have 8 while SEA only has 2.
• First 5 Avg Pick is just that, the average of the first five picks each team has to draft their top 5 Need Positions. 
• Team - you can figure that out.
• Criticality/Position/Position Need Urgency represents the data in the middle of the table in declining order: The numbers represent the Criticality calculated (in the first table above) for each player Position, below.  The number below the position in the Team row represents the Position Need Urgency based on NFL.com as discussed above (with 5 being most urgent need, and 1 being least). 
• The Yellow highlighted columns represent Positions with negative Criticality - Critical Positions that you will not want your team to have high Position Need Urgency numbers.  THIS WILL CHANGE WITH EACH DRAFT PICK!  So at the end of each day of the Draft, the Supply and Demand numbers will change and so Criticality will be recalculated based on the needs teams filled.  
• Critical Positions represent the number of Positions with Negative Criticality for the respective team at the beginning of each Draft day. 
• Critical Coverage represents the excess coverage of Top 160 Picks to Critical Positions.  MIA has just two Critical Positions before the Draft (OL and LB) but they have 8 Top 160 Picks to get them (250%).  SEA has three Critical Positions but just 2 Top 160 Picks so they are in the worst position at -33%.
• Criticality Cumulative factors in the Criticality and Position Urgency of all positions to present a measure of how difficult it should be for a team to gain the best projected talent to fill their Top 5 Needs - the higher the number, the better.  The Z-Score for the Criticality Cumulative follows.

Observations

• JAX and NYJ, who choose 1 and 2 in this year's Draft are tied for worst in terms of Criticality.  They each have their top 3 needs in the worst Criticality positions:  Their greatest Position Need (QB) is Grade 5 with the worst Criticality, their Grade 4 Need (CB) has the next worse and their third Need (OL), the third worst.  They only get a break because DL is Grade 2 and Positive. Their final need, TE is also negative but the talent pool is strong (based on NFL.com grades).
• The good news is they both have 100% Critical Coverage (at least pre-Draft) so they should be able to get all their needs covered. 
• MIA would have to pull a LAC Day 3 move (see last year's Who's Screwed Recap for the 2020 NFL Draft) to somehow mess this up.  They have a Criticality Z Score that is greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean with their top 2 Needs in Positive Criticality positions (WR and DL) with their Grade 2 in the low stress RB position.  Their Critical Positions are only for their Grade 3 and Grade 1 needs.
• Teams with Critical Coverage of 0% or negative need to really hit on their first pick and hope the Supply and Demand numbers shift in their favor so their positions of need shift out of negative Criticality.
• SF (Pick 3 overall) has a Grade 5 need for QB and it's pretty clear they are going that route after their blockbuster trade.
• CHI does not pick until number 20 and they also have a Grade 5 need for QB.  Given the Board may not fall their way, will they pick an OL for their first pick since there should be better graded players?  Mel Kiper in his last mock has them taking OT Tevin Jenkins.
• SEA does not pick until 56 overall and so they will have to consider who is on the Board for their top need of CB or their next most urgent position of OL.  Given their next and final Top 160 pick is 129, not sure it really matters. I hope they have a great scout dept.
• IND might be looking OL at 21 which is their Grade 5 need.  Coming right after CHI, we might see a run on OL.  Mel Kiper has them taking DE Jaelan Phillips, which would fulfill their Grade 4 position but not a position of urgency.  By the time they get back around to their next pick at 57, they will be hoping the remaining OL prospects will be decent.
• BUF is a team that is in a great position from a personnel perspective.  With the 30th overall pick, their top need is DL but that is not a position of urgency from our analysis.  The table points to CB for them but Kiper has DL/OLB Azeez Ojulari becoming the newest member of the Buffalo Bills. 

But Wait, There's More!

As soon as the draft begins and Trevor Lawrence is off the Board, all the information above will change.  With every pick, the numbers will shift as positions with surplus talent become depleted and overall player needs change and with all that, will change the Criticality numbers.  That's why I will be providing updates after Day 1 and Day 2, with a recap of how each team did in terms of covering their "Position Needs" after completion of the draft. 

If this has been interesting to you at all, I hope you will swing back for the update posts as the Draft proceeds into the weekend.

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