Supply and Demand Updated Numbers
OK, it was an exciting Day 1 of the 2021 NFL Draft so let's jump right into how the opening round of the draft impacted Player Supply and Team Demand when it comes to priority position needs.
If it's your first time here and you find yourself confused go back to the Pre-Draft article here which provides a solid overview of the concepts discussed here.
- No major changes in Shortage/Surplus Z over Day 1.
- Avg Priority (based on position needs for that team) saw QB improve dramatically as all the teams with high priority need at the QB position got those needs filled.
- The biggest Criticality move was in QB, as expected with the top 5 candidates being selected in Round 1.
- There are still a ton of RBs available with no real demand. Will be interesting to see how that will play out.
Looking Good
- MIA - While they have a need at the high Criticality OL position, their Critical Coverage is 250% and they have the 4th pick of Round 2. They remain in the best position to cover their needs.
- HOU - Yes, Houston. Something finally goes right for the team with no first pick until 67 but they have 4 picks remaining through 160 with solid Coverage of 100%.
- MIN - Positive Cumulative Criticality as their two lowest priority critical positions are QB and LB; they also enjoy 300% Critical Coverage with 8 of the remaining Top 160 picks.
- NYJ - Starting out tied for worst position with JAX, the Jets cleared out two of their top 3 Critical Positions and dropped down closer to the middle of the pack even after trading way a pair of 3rd rounders in a trade up package to get.
Screwed (for now...)
- LAR - Their top 3 Priorities have the worst Criticality and their ADP remaining is 20th out of 32 teams. With no picks in the first round and quality players flying off the board, the Rams could only sit around in their beach house and watch their situation worsen as they begin Day 2 with the lowest Criticality.
- SEA - Not only is their cumulative Criticality is the 2nd lowest after Day 1, but they currently have negative Coverage meaning they have three needs of high Criticality with just two top 160 picks.
- PIT - Their first rounder was spent on the position with the highest Criticality (RB) so they missed out on a more potentially scarce position. Will a starting caliber OL be there when they pick at 55? They were second overall at the start of Day 1 but end the day third from the bottom.
- PHI - They went Best Player Available in a position that had high Criticality (that is, supply was greater than demand and priority was not incredibly urgent) and now they need to find solid CB and OL, the most impacted positions at this point of the draft. with selections 37 and 70. Good luck.
- DAL - Blocked from the two premier CB, Jerruh has to deal with picking up a second tier (at best) CB and also an OL.
- IND - Three Critical Positions, two picks remaining in the top 160 with negative Coverage.
Thoughts for Day 2
- We'll see how many CB and OL fly off the board early in Round 2 as those positions have the lowest Criticality (largest shortfalls in supply vs demand and large number of teams with these priority needs.
- The top players available based on NFL.com grades in the remaining top 160
- Jeremiah Owusu-Korahmoah - 6.82 grade which had him as the #7 player overall. A steal for a team that can utilize him.
- Christian Barmore - 6.70 grade put him at #25.
- Azeez Ojulari - 6.39 grade has him at #28.
- Tyson Campbell - 6.37 grade puts him at #31.
There will be a lot more change in the measurements at the end of day 2 since there will be many more draft picks to shake things up. Make sure to check out the update tomorrow before watching Day 3!
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