Week 8 NFL Picks Results/Week 9 Forecast

Wrong Way

Well, all good things come to an end.  After notching 9 wins in Weeks 5 and 6 and 10 last week, I fell back to earth with a 7-8  week.  A pathetic 2-3 for Best Bets.  Ick.

Looking to turn it around with this week's slate; only 3 Best Bets.

There is no Thursday pick because I got waylaid making Halloween costumes and couldn't post.

And please, no wagering.  For entertainment purposes only.

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Check out the projection for the 2nd Half of the 2019 NFL Season here!

NFL 2nd Half and End of Year Standings Forecast

Half Way Point

The 2019 NFL season is turning the corner as teams prepare for their Week 9 games which means we are kicking off the second half of the season.  Based on team performance in the first half of the season here are the 2nd half forecasts for each team followed by a prediction of the final standings.  Here we go!

Through Week 8

Along with the actual wins (W), losses (L), ties (T)  and win percentage (%) headings, we added:

• Rank - The Team rank based on win percentage. 
• SoS Rank - Strength of Schedule Rank is based on actual peer performance comparison through Week 8; 1 is the easiest schedule and 32, the hardest.
• %OP/UP - Percentage Overperformance (positive) /Underperformance (negative) reflects if the team performed better or worse than expected given the competition.  
• NO was 13th in terms of strength of schedule and is ranked 3rd in terms of win %, representing 30% overperformance (and that is with their starting QB out for several weeks).
• The only two teams with better win percentages, NE and SF, had much easier going with the 1st and 2nd easiest schedules, respectively.
• On the flip side, DAL has the 3rd easiest schedule and is the 13th overall team in terms of win % so, you guessed it, they underperformed by 30%.
• The teams performing exactly as they should given the competition are NE, NYG, TB and MIN.

Looking Forward

Using the performance of teams for the first half, I projected the wins for the rest of the 2019 Season.  Win and losses are predicted based on a comparative model. Ties were not included in the simulation.


Variance indicates the change between 2nd half win percentage and that for the 1st half for each team.

• OAK will see win percentage drop .313 compared to the 1st half of the year.  Even though their strength of schedule got easier (from 25th to 7th) the average schedule for all teams should get easier going forward.
• CIN is projected to see the best improvement compared to 1st half by 0.375 (their win rate is 0.00) as they pull out 3 wins driven by the 5th easiest schedule of the 2nd half.
• Teams projected to duplicate their 1st half performances with the exact same record are both LA teams LAC and LAR, NE, NO and PHI.
• MIN is expected to be the juggernaut of the league going 8-0 the second half with the 25th toughest schedule.
• My NYJ will have the "weakest" opposition but, based on how they've played thus far, the model has them winning only two games, sweeping MIA in the division home and home.

Final Tally

When you look at the actual 1st half and my projected 2nd half:

• Contenders:  Teams with 1st half success, NE, SF, NO, MIN and GB continue their winning ways. 
• Pretenders:  MIA is joined by ATL at the bottom of the rankings with NYJ, CIN and WAS rounding out the list.
• Against All Odds: KC has the 2nd toughest schedule and is projected to finish 7th overall.  This projection has not taken into account the impact of the Mahomes injury.
• Better Luck Next Year:  With the toughest schedule, ATL finishes about where we would expect, at #31 overall.  Hard to overcome tough scheduling like that.
• In Search of Perfection: Two teams are undefeated at the halfway mark, but the projection has NE the only one remaining unblemished at the end of the regular season. SF is projected to fall to GB is Week 12 ending their run at perfection.
• Virgins, No More:  No team is projected to finish without a win with MIA expected to get the win vs. CLE in Week 12 and CIN over PIT that same week.

Final Standings:  AFC 

NFC 

Thoughts?  Please leave a comment below. Check back at the end of the year to see how this forecast compared to real life.

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Join me for a look at Offensive Line performance here.







NFL Power Ranking Through Week 7

Power to the People!

Below you will find the updated NFL power rankings based on nothing but numbers. No decisions other than the font were required by me.
Major news outlet Power Rankings are listed and their aggregate average is compared to my Power Ranking with the Over/Under difference showing how divergent we are.
Enjoy!

NFL Week 7 Picks Review/Week 8 Forecast - UPDATED 10/24/19

Not a bad week:  10 out of 14; 4 of 5 best bet winners.

Looking to this Week with the Green representing Most Confident. Entertainment purposes, only, please. (UPDATED 10/24/19 - a minor calculation error resulted in changing the outcome of the MIN vs Was game with the Vikings covering).



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NCAA Wide Receiver Return on Investment Updates for All 4 Divisions!  Check it out here!

NCAA Wide Receiver Efficiency through October 20, 2019 for FBS, FCS, DII and DIII

ROI for Every NCAA Division

You know why we are here...but if you don't, check out an explanation of "RETURN ON INVESTMENT"

One note, the presentation for ROI is now based on the percentage above average for the Top 150 receivers for that week, based on receiving yards.

FBS

• T 'n' T - Tee Higgins and Tamorrion Terry held to their #1 and #2 spots, respectively.   Higgins' Efficiency (mainly, the production output his team can expect when he is entrusted with the football) is 330.7% above that of the average FBS receiver.  Wow.
• New Kid in Town - Quez Watkins flew into the #3 spot on a lightning bolt.  He previously had strong ROI but he didn't meet the minimum number of receptions established under the "Sammie Coates" rule but after last week's performance, he makes the best debut of the week.
• Staying Power - There are only 7 players who have been on each of the first four Top 20 lists this year:  Higgins, Terry, Gandy-Golden, Bayless, Rozner , Davis and Bradley.

FCS

Formerly called "Division I-AA", FCS has its own share of solid, highly efficient receivers.

• Hinds CC (MS) transfer Chris Blair retained his #1 spot from last week with 14.6% of team's receptions and 26.6% of his teams receiving yards.
• Maine Black Bear Earnest Edwards was pretty much a beast out of HS:  All-State (NY), 2X state champs, MVP of the state championship game, 5x state champ at Bball.  So when you check his Rivals page which lists his highest profile offer coming from local Buffalo, you have to think him being billed at 5'10" 170 lbs may have limited his options.  Regardless, the kid is nice. Just YouTube him...
• A graduate transfer Keyston Fuller was dealt a tough hand. As an All-State (GA) WR considered WR27 in the nation, he signed to Duke then redshirted his freshman year only to take a medical redshirt his next year. He played in all games the next two seasons but was not an impact player. At Richmond, he has a shot to prove himself and we will be watching. 



Division II

The D2 and D3 receivers include height, weight and Touchdown Rate along with ROI Above Average rate.

Division III

Touchdown Rates

Personal Rate = Rate of Receptions per Touchdown (Ceedee Lamb has 10 touchdowns and 31 receptions)

Team Comp Rate = Personal Rate compared to Team's overall Touchdown Rate (example, Aiyuk's touchdown rate is one every 6.4 receptions while the rest of the Sun Devils score at a rate of one every 28 receptions). 

Lamb's TD rate is impressive but the rest of the team also scores as a nice clip of 1 every 8 receptions so his Team Comp Rate is good but not great. 

NFL Power Rankings thru Week 6

"Off" represents the difference between the Experts' Average and our ranking.

• All By Myself - Despite having a more strenuous schedule so far this year, none of the Experts picked SF #1 overall like I did, unanimously going with the Patriots.
• The rest of my Top 4 remained unchanged.
• You Can't Win - The Chiefs lost to the Texans, so why is Houston trailing not only in my Ranking, but also according to 3 of the 5 Experts?  For me, the KC body of work is a bit stronger. Obviously, continued performance by the Texans will push them past KC. 
• Carolina Blues - The Panthers continue to win, knocking off a division opponent in the Bucs but go nowhere remaining flat at #10.
• Rising Star - Arizona flew up 9 places to #19 partially because they won their 2nd game but also because the tie they earned is giving them a boost against other teams with 2 wins and 3 losses.
• Lost their Footing? - The Los Angeles Mountain Goats went into the ravine this week against the Niners, as I predicted here) and they dropped 6 to #15, which was in Accord with the Experts' average.
• Bottom of the Barrel - Although there was some shifting in the bottom 4, the Experts' Average was in line with my cellar dwellers of #29 Falcons, #30 Washington, #31 Bengals and the Fins bringing up the rear at #32.😳 

Check out this space next week for Week Seven updated ratings.

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Look Back at NFL Draft 2019 to see which players are making an impact - check out and see how your favorite draft analysts colleagues on Twitter and Facebook graded the Top 100 here!

Week 6 NFL Picks Wrap Up/ Week 7 review

Week 6 

Not bad with a 9-5 week against the spread. 

Week 7 picks

Recall these numbers are as of 10/14/19, so if the line changes, I am not adjusting.
Remember, kids, for entertainment purposes only. I'm just checking to see if my calcs hold up in predicting winners.

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