Safety Dance - Is Jamal Adams Really Not a Good Safety?

Michael Lombardi of The Athletic had some strong words for Jamal Adams.  After equating his current contract extension request with the legendary Seinfeld episode where George Costanza attempts to get fired by the Yankees, he ups the ante by detailing numerous shortfalls he claims riddle Adams' game.

While I will not examine Lombardi's claims about Adams' alleged sabotage of his Jets career by asking for fair market compensation compared to his rookie contract, this piece will look at his claim as to why, based on performance alone, Jets GM Joe Douglas would be better off moving on from the All-Pro safety.

I took a look at the safeties listed in the Pro Football Focus article on the top 10 NFL tandems (https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-best-safety-2020-nfl-season-minnesota-vikings-new-england-patriots) and compared the numbers (thanks to www.pro-football-reference.com). Here's what I found out.

Penalties

Lombardi said Adams' game is predicated on the big hit and the intimidation factor it has on receivers. This leads to roughing penalties that will be a huge liability for the team as the league has increased attention to such penalties.

• Over his career Adams has had 4 Unnecessary Roughness/Roughing the Passer penalties.  Compared to the players in the PFF piece, for context, when considering the number of defensive snaps he took, he is about in the middle of some notable names.  
• It must be considered his 3rd and 4th penalties took place on consecutive plays vs. JAX in 2019.  His play is based on reading and reacting, not blowing guys up.  Gase properly saw that Adams was too keyed up in the JAX game and sat him down.  If Coach had done that a play earlier and Adams had only the one penalty, his rate would have been 1 Roughing Penalty for every 1,035 snaps.

While the raw numbers put Adams near the "questionable" end of the spectrum, considering half of his Roughing penalties occurred on consecutive plays, I would be hesitant to say he's in the Burfict punishment realm.  And simply watching his play style is enough to debunk the claim of him being a goon.

Scheme Liability

"Gregg Williams knows Adams... struggles to cover the top receiving tight ends or backs as well as defending the middle of the field when Williams wants to play Cover 2."  Lombardi goes on to say, "...but with both Adams and Marcus Maye at Safety, the Jets lack range and playmaking skills when both on the third level. Both safeties have just seven passes defended and one interception apiece last year."


The most remarkable part of the commentary above is the clear miss that, of the key personnel for a Cover 2, Adams and Maye were the two you would most trust in 2019. The necessary physical corners who can jam receivers off the line (squat corners as we called them on my high school team) were not in large supply on the Jets last year.  But even more glaringly absent was a top flight MLB who could call out adjustments AND still hustle down field to cover the middle.  You think of Derrick Brooks or Brian Urlacher when you think Cover 2 linebackers and no such name was available to NYJ for most of the season.  Mosley was solid when healthy but once he got hurt they had no dependable LB.  Adams was moved around so much primarily because there was no one of Mosley's ability the team could trust at all three levels of the defense except Jamal.

Inability to Cover/Lack of Playmaking


Regarding the article's claims against Adams' ability to cover receivers, the good news is the data for opponent completion percentage is readily available.  How did Adams do relative to his peer group?

• Of the 20 safeties mentioned in the PFF "Top Safety Duos" piece, Adams was #7 in terms of lowest receiver completion rate (his partner, Maye, ended up third).  Each would be one notch higher if we exclude Diggs who's targets were more than one standard deviation beyond the mean.
• Based on the peer group, Adams' completion percentage was within 1 standard deviation above the mean.

Of course, it could be that perhaps even though he is in the top 10 of opponents completion percentage, maybe he gets beat deep and gives up the long ball.  Could that be what Lombardi is referring to?

Average Yards per Target

• Looks like Adams is in the top 3 of the data group in terms of Yards per Target mapping to a grade of 93.1.
• His Partner in Crime Maye, however, does seem to struggle giving up 10 yards per target.
• It is amazing to see teams kept challenging Mathieu (who was targeted 80 times!) although he is clearly effective with 5.1 Y/T, far better than average.

Let's take a look at this again, this time broken out by comparing Air Yards and Yards After Catch each per Completion.


Air Yards

Adams seems to keep everything in front of him (6.1 air yards) so the numbers don't support him getting beat deep often.  He comes in at an above average grade of 81.0 in terms of Air Yards per Completion. 

Yards After Catch

Here is where Adams excels giving up only 2.8 yards after the catch which grades out to a 96.9 in the peer group.

Not sure if Marcus Williams had some kind of soft tissue injury last year but his rate was absolutely frightening!

Missed Tackles

Again, Adams is near the top of the pack grading out to a 98.5.  Maye also ranks above average.  Now, the 80 targets on Mathieu makes a bit more sense with his high missed tackle percentage.




Wrap up

So, when you take all categories and compare Adams to the peer group composed of the top 10 safety duos according to PFF, he ends up as the statistical top safety.  Wow...who would have thunk it?

At the end of the day, I could forgive fans once again aligning with the owners in a contract dispute but to somehow say the man is not talented and held back the team?  That's just bitter. 

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The Fourth Annual All-Social Media Top 100 List for NFL Draft prospects is posted...check it out here!  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/04/boombearjrs-fourth-annual-all-social_22.html

2017 NFL Draft In Review - Who Were the Top Twitter Scouts?

Representing DraftTwitter

For those of you who didn't check out my 3rd anniversary review of the very first All Twitter Top 100 Players selected in the NFL 2017 Draft, get up to speed here.

The football gurus, in aggregate, ended up only 1.5% behind the actual NFL draft in terms of how closely they ranked players to their actual value to their teams since their draft date.   But which of our DraftTwitter all-stars showed out the best?   Glad you asked!  

The Dirty Dozen

Below are the top 12 DraftTwitter scouts from 2017 - The Dirty Dozen. On average, their drafts were 8% better than the actual NFL draft (which graded out to 66.1%) in terms of ordering the top 100 prospects in the 2017 NFL draft based on utilization and performance metrics (I'm telling you, go back and read the recap post via the link above).

 

• These twelve scouts posted above average grades compared to the other scouts in our 2017 NFL Draft All Twitter Top 100. 
• They all had better drafts than the aggregate for the 32 NFL teams based on our metrics.
• Yellow represents finishing within 1 standard deviation of the mean of the scouts surveyed. 
• Green represents finishing above 1 standard deviation of the mean.
• Greatest Hits represents the picks these guys nailed (not counting Myles Garrett).  For example, Bill Carroll had Adoree Jackson at #37 and that is how he has graded out in the analysis.  
• Greatest Misses is just the opposite and can be guys we slept on or those who were totally overvalued.
• Clearly, Forrest Lamp was a guy who was expected to have a bigger impact than he has been able to provide the last three years. 

Back into the Vault

Putting 2017 to bed for another 2 years so we see how the players and how our scouts' picks hold up at the 5 year mark.   Up next year - review of the 2018 DraftTwitter Top 100.  See you there!

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Which teams had the best NFL drafts based on Needs?  How about based on Value?  Have that right here for you!    

First EVER 3 Year Recap of DraftTwitter Top 100 from 2017

Three Years in the Making!

How would the average Twitter football know-it-all do against NFL General Managers in terms of picking draft prospects?  

In 2017, this crazy idea kicked off an odyssey that has brought hundreds of football fans together to debate, share scouting methods and have fun while voting to help compile what has become an annual tradition, the DraftTwitter Top 100.  Here are the results of the very first survey.

The idea is simple: take super-enthusiastic NFL draft fans, give them a chance to rank their top 100 prospects for the upcoming draft and crunch the numbers to get an aggregate list that should smooth out the bumps to reflect the draft sentiment of the Twitterverse. 

I promised to review the performance of the Aggregate Top 100 list to the results of the actual NFL GMs to see who did a better job.  So here it is, the very first 3 year review for the 2017 NFL Player Draft!

Step 1.  Determine the true Top 100 players in the 2017 NFL Draft

Sure, we ranked players we thought were the best and the pros spent millions in scouting resources to actually drafted them.  But 3 years later, neither group's ranking of the plays (through the DraftTwitter Top 100 and through the first 100 players picked in the 2017 NFL Draft) reflects the true ranking of the best players in that draft from 1 to 100.  So, we will create that list right now.

The process of stack ranking players uses three measures to determine an overall score based on (1) importance of that player to his team and (2) player production compared to his peer group.

• Importance to Team- For all players except quarterbacks, Games Started and Positional Snaps (Special Teams play is not included) are the first two measures in the calculation used to determine the rankings.  The assumption being coaches put their most capable players on the field and, if a player can maintain his starting spot or generate a high number of snaps compared to his peer group, he has high importance.  
• Production - Each position has a production metric calculated over the first 3 years of his career:
• RB:  Yards from Scrimmage/Snaps
• WR and  TE: Receiving Yards/Snaps
• Offensive Line: Snaps/Penalties
• DL: Snaps/(Tackles for Loss plus Sacks)
• LB:Snaps/(Solo Tackles plus Tackles for Loss plus Sacks)
• S: Snaps/Total Tackles
• CB: Target Ratio (Catches Allowed/Times Targeted)
• Quarterback Stat Ranking: Top 100 QBs are given far more opportunity to fail as opposed to other players and so the Importance to Team metrics above are not as helpful.  Instead we look at:
• Passing Yards/Attempt = 50%
• Touchdowns/Interceptions=50%

Players are graded in their respective position groups with the top player awarded 100 points and each subsequent player graded based on their relationship to the top position and the mean.  The differential between the top player and the next is recorded, and so on.  This differential is used to gauge how much better a player is compared to the next in his position group, which is key in breaking ties.  

The three metrics are averaged and all players are ranked regardless of position with ties broken by the position differential.  

The Actual 2017 NFL Draft Top 100

• Actual Score:  Score generated from the stack ranking exercise above. 
• Expected Score:  Expected Score if player performed exactly to the level he was drafted, based on the actual top 100 scores.  
• Value +/- : The Value gained or lost based on Expected Score compared to Actual Score.
• No Expected Score or Value +/- means player was drafted outside the Top 100.

For example, Patrick Mahomes (shocker) was the #1 player in the 2017 so his Actual Score is 100.  He was the the 9th pick overall and so, based on the actual scores, the 9th player's score is 96.2.  The Actual Score minus the Expected Score divided by the Expected Score shows he provided 3.9% value based on the analysis.  

Sleepers and Underperformers

Here are the Sleepers, guys who way outperformed their draft positions. 

And the Underperformers:

Step 2: Assess Scores of NFL and DraftTwitter Based on Actual Scores

Lining up the results, we score each draft pick based on how much off the NFL and Draft Twitter Pos(ition) it is compared to the 2020 Value (as we figured out above). 

Going back to the Pat Mahomes example, he was drafted 10th overall but is the #1 player in his draft.  Because the NFL Draft had him 9 slots lower than he earned out, we deduct those 9 points from the possible 100 points for each player.  So, he was worth 91 points to the NFL and only 67 points to DraftTwitter who were much lower on him (although, in line with many sources that also overlooked Mahomes).

Any player with a position > 100 was not in the NFL's or DraftTwitter's Top 100 and so the score is a zero. 

All the scores are averaged and, if you scroll down, you will see if the NFL GMs or the DraftTwitter guys had better results...

And the Winner is...

OK, so the GMs reign supreme like they should (they get paid enough) BUT the margin of victory is just 1.5 points.  I know the term "moral victory" does not belong in football but I think we will take it here...

Shout out to the Contributors 

These guys came through by providing the first survey results.  Many have gone on to bigger and better things but they all stay connected to the DraftTwitter community.  Looking forward to breaking down their individual draft performances in the next article. 

Bill Carroll @elevenbravo138

Blake Wyatt @NflDraft_KC

vixticator, again? @vixticator

Benjamin Solak @BenjaminSolak

Jim Cobern@Jimetrics

douglas byrne @dbyrne70

Kent Lee Platte @MathBomb

A.J. Milack @AJMilackNFL

Andrew Moss @NFLscoutTampa

there's no offseason @SMBLOB

TMD @TheMockingDraft

Donrey Mariñas @DonreyMarinas

Jonathan Valencia @JonValencia_WiB

Michael Kist @MichaelJKist

CJ Agnone @CJagnone53

rockyjack @rockysports793

Scott McLean @scottinthe503

Zone Reads @ZoneReads
Matt Miller @NFLdraftscout

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Check out the full 2020 NFL draft review for value picks and need fulfillment!  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/04/nfl-draft-2020-whos-screwed-recap-of.html

The Fourth Annual All-Social Media Top 100 List for NFL Draft prospects is posted...check it out here!  Who did your favorite DraftTwitter football fanatics select?  

Find out here!  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/04/boombearjrs-fourth-annual-all-social_22.html

Review of New York Jets 2020 Draft

Big Debut for Big Joe

Each Spring for the past 5 years, Jets fans have loaded up on Tums while watching the NFL draft.  This year, many fans just didn't know what to expect with first-time GM Joe Douglas running the player selection.   As VP of Player Personnel across the river in Philadelphia, he had the following draft history:

• 2016:  Carson Wentz fell in his lap; few other players from that draft have been meaningful contributors over the last 5 years.
• 2017: Top pick Derek Barnett missed a lot of time due to injury but contributed in 2019; the other top picks are struggling for snaps.
• 2018: Second round pickup Dallas Goedert became South Dakota State's highest drafted player but supplanting Ertz as TE1 is a tall order. The rest of their Day 2/Early Day 3 picks struggle to get snaps.
• 2019: Still early, but OL Andre Dillard took a redshirt behind starting LT Jason Peters and WR Arcega-Whiteside only pulled down 10 of his 22 targets.  

Not really crushing it by any stretch but Douglas was NOT the GM in that case so he wasn't pulling the trigger. 

But, he's got the big chair now.  What did we think of Big Joe's first draft?

Traded Back

The prior GM never made a lot of noise in the draft with daring trades so this year was refreshing. Making moves shows our GM is going to always keep an open mind to improving the team.  Not only did he increase the number of picks from 8 to 9 but he also improved the average draft position by 7 spots.  

Addressing Needs

What I've learned over the past year is that the concept of "Best Player Available" is applicable to the best player for your NEED.  So you take the best guy at a need position, not necessarily the best player on the board.  Seems like Joe followed this strategy to a "T" and, based on my analysis (which you can read here) , the Jets "won" the draft by filling their need positions with players graded high enough to make an impact. 

• Jets addressed their five priority need within the first 160 picks, the only team to do so this draft (5 is the most pressing need, 1 the least [but still a need.]).
• Given the depth at WR and Edge in this year's prospects, Joe naturally focused his initial pick on getting one of the consensus top OT prospects, and likely the one they need to be a human wall between blindside attackers and Sam Darnold.

Finding Value

Based on NFL.com's own player grades, Joe ended up #8 overall in terms of squeezing value out of the draft over the first 160 picks.  

• Based on the average draft pick over the first 160 (93.6; TB was best at 44.7) and the average player grade (6.22, DET was first at 6.42) the Jets found 15.8% more value when drafting their players compared to the average...again, this is based on NFL.com's posted player grades.
• Outside the Top 160, Big Joe still pulled in impressive value on later picks getting the 136th best graded player, the best punter in the nation in Braden Mann, at the 191 spot. That's 4th round talent in the 6th round. And this after filling all their needs. 

Making Sense of "Huh?" Picks

No one but Joe knows why he did what he did during the draft but here's my thoughts on some of his not so obvious moves:

• Wait, don't we have two awesome safeties?  The third selection of Ashtyn Davis was a head scratcher to some.  With safety the strength of the defense, why pick another so high? Not really so high.  Jets got him at 68, Kiper had him as #65 on his big board and he was graded at player #55 overall by NFL.com, so there was value there.  I would expect Joe to sign Jamal Adams to a fat contract after this coming season and so they likely won't pay Maye.   So they need to draft safeties over the next couple of years to ensure coverage. Davis has huge upside since he can play all over the secondary to provide even more versatility to the defense.
•  Why a QB?  Are they giving up on Sam?  I looked at QBs this draft season and I'm pretty confident in saying James Morgan will never win a QB competition and start in the NFL. That being said I can't think of a better QB for them to pick up this past April.  The QB room just got a bit better with Morgan who is an above the neck QB I expect to help Sam when it's time to install the weekly game plan.  Morgan has been starting QB for two FBS programs so his exposure to different environments will be a positive for the team.  He should contribute in ways we fans will never see.  Let's just hope Sam stays healthy. 
• I get Becton but did we need another lineman? - If you want to know the answer to that, just watch this footage of Cameron Clarke vs. Clemson.  Sure, his Charlotte squad lost 52-10 but just watch #71 in the white jersey beating the stew out of national championship caliber players.  I had no idea who was but he's going to be a solid pro for a long time.  Sure, NYJ picked up a bunch of linemen in Free Agency but I wouldn't call them Pro Bowl caliber guys.  Van Routon, Alex Lewis and Fant all have Salary Cap friendly deals where they can be cut after next year with only a ripple effect.  This should add a healthy dose of competition once players are cleared to get to practice.  This can only help the team. Regardless of how the business side works out, Clarke is a beast.

• A Freaking Punter?!? Ok, I get it.  Many people don't follow college punters. Including me.  But what I do know is the Jets did not have a lot of success in the punting game: 
• Lachen Edwards had 28 punts within the 20 yard line, which put him tied at #11 overall...but when you consider his 87 punts were the most in the league, his rate of punts falling within the 20 was dead last of the 25 punters reviewed.
• When you look at the entire picture with a punting game that had nowhere to go but up, the grade Mann earned was pretty impressive for a kicker and the value the Jets got by picking him up at about a 50% value/draft capital discount, this may prove to be the biggest steal of the draft. 

Dude had a forced fumble...as a punter. Whut?!

In Conclusion

I have to say I am very excited by this draft.  It showed the GM is creative and well studied in player talent.  It would be nice if Joe didn't have alligator arms when it comes to pitching top free agents, but I would rather miss out on an overpriced player past his prime so I can forgive that.   I have seen other analysts with not as glowing reviews but you know what they say about opinions.  

Can't wait to see what happens in 2020 and in the pivotal 2021 season.

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Check out the full 2020 NFL draft review for value picks and need fulfillment!  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/04/nfl-draft-2020-whos-screwed-recap-of.html

The Fourth Annual All-Social Media Top 100 List for NFL Draft prospects is posted...check it out here!  Who did your favorite DraftTwitter football fanatics select?  

Find out here!  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/04/boombearjrs-fourth-annual-all-social_22.html

NFL Draft 2020 "Who's Screwed" Recap of Needs Based Draft

The NFL's Virtual Draft was undeniably a huge success.  Their joint effort with Four Letter Network could be just want we needed as a country to turn the corner and start looking forward to a prudent, gradual return to normalcy over the next few months.  

The league had a great weekend but how about your favorite team?  While you were reading some pre-draft takes about who your team should take, the cool kids were reading THIS blog to understand how the supply and demand forces were working for or against their squad.  Why don't you go and catch up...we'll wait:

1. Pre-Draft Needs Analysis  
2. Day 1 Review of Needs Addressed - Which teams have a lot of day 2 work to do?
3. Day 2 Review - Peek into Day 3

The Short Story

(1) NYJ were the only team to draft all their "needs" in the "sweet spot" of the draft, (2) they were joined by HOU, CLE, DET and MIN as teams to obtain all "need" positions, and (3) WAS extracted the most value out of their picks over the "sweet spot" of the draft.

The Long Story

The Magic of One-Six-Oh

For those of you too lazy to go over the "Who's Screwed" series for 2020, here's a brief overview - based on NFL.Com's team needs and player grades, I tracked the selection of each team's needs over the first 160 picks.  Why 160?  Each team's needs were ranked from 1 (lowest priority) to 5 (highest priority) so if each team attempted to draft simply for "need" everyone would pick their guys in the first 160 picks (32 teams times 5 position needs = 160 selections). This exercise examines only player needs in "deficit positions" (see, you should have read the other articles) based on supply and demand.  If there were 5 Top 160 LBs based on the NFL.com ratings and your team was one of 10 teams with LB needs, there would be a -50% rated deficit at that position, meaning half of us were not going to get a top graded LB.  The number is adjusted based on the talent pool of available players.

With that foundation laid, let's take a look at:

1. Which teams went about their business with a clearly "needs" based strategy given their efforts to complete draft their position needs on Day 3/pre and post pick 160 activity.
2. Which teams benefited and suffered as a result of drafting "need" positions after the sweet spot of the top 160.
3. Analysis of which teams got the most value out of their picks and which ones appeared to reach a bit too far. 

1.  What About MY Needs?!?

If you read the other blog posts, you are familiar with the table above.  On the Left, are each NFL team.  The next three columns, Day 1 Picks/Need, Day 2 Picks/Need and Day 3 Top 160 Picks/Need represent the positions selected by each team and what, if any, need that pick fulfilled. If the pick did not satisfy a NFL.com identified team need, than the designation was "0" as in "WR-0".

• NYJ in the first row picked an offensive tackle in the first round, satisfying their #3 need, which was considered the mid point of the urgency scale per NFL. com.
• Below them, CLE also picked an OT which was their top priority as a #5.

The second column reports the same information through Day 2.  If you were a loyal follower, you would have known after the first and second days, I provided a table updating the adjusted supply and demand ranking per position which would take into account the average grade for each position based on the remaining players.

The third column lists the "need" players selected up to the 160th pick (based on the assumption detailed above) for each team.  The center section titled "Post Top 160 Unfilled Needs" reflects which "need' positions were not filled; it uses the 1-5 scale to indicate priority.  During the draft, "deficit needs" were tracked because if there is a short suppy of a position, it is better to get him sooner than later. 

The final column, "Needs Drafted %" shows what percentage of their "need" positions each team was able to acquire in the Top 160 picks.

Comments:

• Top Gun - NYJ were the only team to fulfill all their "needs" in the top 160 sweet spot resulting in a 100% rating. 
• Montagues and Capulets - The NFC North is pretty clearly not a "needs-based" drafting division, given when you're talking about GB and CHI.  Both clearly ignored all perceived needs - since each picked up only their top "needs", they each scored 33%.  (Top Need in this case is 5 (sum of their drafted needs) divided by all needs summed for a total of 15; 3/15= 33%)
• Comeback Kid  - PHI was in pretty bad shape going into Day 3 with a pretty bleak projection grade for completing their "needs". They turned it around and ended up with an 87% completion rate.
• From the Penthouse to the Outhouse - The team I had graded out as having a "Foolproof" Day 3 draft must have come across some fools because LAC could not convert their two remaining Top 160 picks into their two lowest priority deficit "needs".  They dropped all the way from 1st going into day 3 to 24th.     

2. Value Proposition

Of course, the concept of the Top 160 being the sweet spot of the draft may not exist in the world of NFL GMs.  For them, simply addressing as many of your needs over the course of the draft may be the goal.  So looking at the entire draft, the table below depicts selections from the 161st pick to the final pick.

Post 160 Value - This is a measure calculated to determine how much value a team gained or lost on a "need" position picked after the 160th pick.  To keep it simple, if you compare the grade of the player selected post 160 to the last player of the same position group selected before 160, we determine if there was value gained or lost.
For example:  CIN selected OL Adeniji at #180 when interior line was a priority deficit "need" for the draft.  The last OL selected before the 160th pick was found to have a rating that is 7% higher than the new Bengal.  So, in waiting to draft their "need" OL after 160, they lost 7% of potential talent on that position.  (Of course the opportunity value is not considered here but that is for another article. Let's keep it simple for now).  Teams with blacked out sections did not draft any "needs" players after the first 160 selections.

• HOU, CLE, DET and MIN join NYJ as teams that checked off all their positional "needs" by the end of the draft.  The 
• NYJ is listed first because they addressed all "needs" within the Top 160 picks.
• HOU is second as they were able to generate 5% additional value on their picks despite drafting "needs" positions outside of the Top 160.
• MIN also covered 100% of its "needs" but they had some run off in value from waiting so long to pick up their final players, especially Safety which was the most depleted position going into Day 2.
• The only team to come in with less than a 50% Total Needs Drafted rating would be NE which has historically not shown signs of following any "needs" based draft.  
• GB had the largest drop off in value of post 160 "needs' players drafted, losing 47% in player value by waiting so late.
• If there is a team that, in reality, didn't have a lot of urgent "needs" it is NO but they lost a lot of value waiting to take a QB near the end of the seventh round.  Instead of taking a flyer on a CB they picked up a QB at 240 that may very well have been available as an UDFA.  (And with Hill and the acquisition of Winston, their #240 QB may likely be headed for the practice squad at best.)

3.  The Best Value Award goes too...

The table below shows the value each team got from their overall draft based on the draft position of players and their perceived value (based on NFL.com grades).

Comments:

• Snore Act - The old saying tells us to be hot or cold but not lukewarm. SF, IND and LVR hovered around the average mark - pretty lukewarm.  But when you look at the players they got, there are some gems so perhaps it's more telling about the teams drafting above them. 
• Nothing Up Their Sleeve - WAS pulled a magic act. They came in with picks that, in aggregate, would earn you an "F" grade in school (a 58%) but ended up getting huge value from their picks.
• I Couldn't Tell You - GB had great average picks (86.6%) but ended up near the bottom of the list in terms of perceived value.  I'm sure the front office has a plan but based on these numbers, it's not very clear what that plan is.  You know what that means...we have your Super Bowl winners! 
• Beyond Your Understanding - There is one certainty:  NE continues to not give a crap about what we think of their draft strategy. They don't draft for need, they don't draft for value.  They let Belichik's dog draft.  Guarantied, they play GB in the big game.
• The Value Players - The following teams were above average for value drafting yet left "needs" unfilled indicating they lean toward a BPA/Value approach:
• WAS: 1st in Value, 28th in Needs.
• ARI: 2nd in Value, 29th in Needs
• BUF: 3rd in Value, 30th in Needs
• Other Value over Needs teams:  CHI, NO and SEA.

Final Thoughts

Despite the challenges, it was a great draft with lots of surprises.  No doubt we will be discovering the impact of each pick on the league for years to come.  Keep in mind, the rankings above are wholly subjective, that is, their basis is the NFL.com player rankings which is as arbitrary as any other ranking system.  Regardless of the approach, and regardless of how great a team's draft is declared by the draftniks, what cannot be measured right now is how may difference makers were selected and will their coaching staff be able to adequately motivate to bring out their best.  Looking forward to Draft 2021!

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The Fourth Annual All-Social Media Top 100 List for NFL Draft prospects is posted...check it out here!  Who did your favorite DraftTwitter football fanatics select?  

Find out here!  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/04/boombearjrs-fourth-annual-all-social_22.html

NFL Draft - Who's Screwed Update - Day 2 Tables

Never to Late for Football!

For those of you familiar with this page, every year I track team needs vs. likely supply and demand for each position in the NFL Draft.  This is not only fun but it reveals a lot about how each team approached the draft.  In a nutshell, I give a numerical representation of how likely each team will achieve its draft goals based on filling needs.  Assuming the top 5 needs for each team  (according to NFL.com) our exercise looks at how each team pursues the Top 160 players (top 5 needs for each team times 32 teams)  based on the player rankings (also from NFL.com).  The higher the number, the more likely a team will cover all their needs with the most highly grade players.  (I'm tired but for more on the methodology, check out the Day 1 article here.

I won't reveal what time it was when I finally finished the tables, but here they are!

• Nearly Foolproof - LAC despite having no Day 2 picks really cleaned up on Day 1, picking up their highest rated need (a 5 rating) and later their middle need (rated 3).  Their remaining needs are low priority (a 1 and a 2) which are not horrible in terms of Position Deficit (which takes into the number of Top 160 players at that position who are still available and factors in their player grade to further adjust for value.  Their 2nd highest priority is for OT of which there are more options than chasers at this point in the draft.  Would not be surprised if they pick up anyone of the highest graded options in  the Prince, Charles or Bartch.  
• No one can Mail It In - Yeah, usually there would be teams here who have most of their boxes checked and may have a mid priority Position Deficit selection to make but none of those this year.  Granted things are different this year but you always expect parity.  Not this year. 
• Gut Check Time - Someone has to draft the difference makers out there and if the cards fall right, any one of these teams could end up with a solid draft.
• At This Point, Start Drinking -  Four teams in this group, PIT, WAS, NE and KC have not yet addressed their top priority position and, as you will see, the number and quality of players remaining has dwindled.  Not good.
• Aight, Imma Head Out... In this category, we see teams that usually do not have enough draft capital to fill their draft needs in the first 160 picks.  They have 1 pick up to that point, but have three and even four need positions.  And they can be higher priority. 
• Completely Screwed - What if they league held a draft but you had no picks?  These teams just flat out have no draft capital left in the top 160 picks and some teams are completely out of picks, typically in trades for veterans.  
• Tampa Bay was in FIRST position in the pre-draft analysis and now they are in the Completely Screwed category if they want to fill out their needs with Top 160 players...what happened?  (Article for another time.)

Data Tables

The table below reflects the supply and demand via a "Surplus/-Shortage" number which is then used to calculate the Position Certainty which combines player group rankings with the supply/demand data.  The 3 day trend is on the right.

The master table below breaks out each team's draft and provides my Day 3 forecast on how likely the team will hit their numbers.

In closing, I'm not saying players after the 160 pick are to be discounted.   They are critical components of every NFL team.  This exercise is more valuable in examining how teams run their drafts.  Any questions, please leave a comment.

Prior NFL 2020 Draft Who's Screwed Articles - Check them out!

Day One Preview

Day One Review

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The Fourth Annual All-Social Media Top 100 List for NFL Draft prospects is posted...check it out here!  Who did your favorite DraftTwitter football fanatics select?  

Find out here!  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/04/boombearjrs-fourth-annual-all-social_22.html

NFL Draft: Who's Screwed? The Impact of Day 1

Getting Ready for Day 2!

NFL had a pretty good draft despite the Safer at Home orders in place nationwide.  There were no  Earth shattering technical glitches I saw but there's always today!


I rolled out the annual review of the teams that were best and worst positioned to fill their needs and, of course, as the selections come off the board, that immediately impacts all teams future plans.  Here is the update based on which players came off the board and the draft capital moved around in trades.

The details of the process can be read here in the pre-draft analysis of the exercise.  Below I list each team with their "Criticality" score... negative 25% was the mean; the higher the number the better shot the team has at filling all their draft "needs".   Here is how it all shook out.

 Short Update

Screwing this Up will be a Feat

• LAC knocked the cover off the ball in terms of filling needs. Picked up their top need in QB Herbert and scooped their 3rd biggest need in LB Kenneth Murray.  Their two critical needs are both low priority, their other need at OL is a rich position and the Bolts have just enough Top 160 picks to cover  (2 for 2).    One issue is they don't have any Day 2 pick.  Regardless, this should be a lay up if they let the draft come to them.

Can Mail it In

• Both teams took care of their top needs and still have plenty of ammo to deal with their respective single critical needs (JAX has 6 picks in the top 160 while DET has 5).  The only downside is their common position of need (OL) is the highest deficit position because of a shortage compared to need and the need is the lowest graded position group in the draft. 

Only the Strong will Survive

• Coin toss here for the teams in this group comprised of clubs who took care of their top needs but have needs at deficit positions with poor draft spots left.  Also in the group are teams with high picks remaining in the Top 160 selections, but those picks may be too few to land many critical positions (DA  BEARS!).  GMs who come out on top here will have earned their bones.

Start Praying to Your Personal God

• I hate to call anything a lost cause but this will be tough. Teams here have at least 3 critical needs with little room for error since they don't have many top 160 picks left (and many teams who traded away their Day 1 picks are in this group so I hope the guy they got is a stud).  Another setback was drafting a guy who didn't fit a position need.  You can't knock a team getting a stud (WAS with Chase Young) but destabilizing your franchise for a question mark leads to lots of head scratching.  GB trading up to take a polarizing QB in the 1st round, which was not a position of need, with a franchise QB under contract or SEA getting a LB which is not a position of need according to NFL.com who was not even a consensus first round pick,  are make or break moves.

Aight...I'mma Head Out

• No one can claim going out and picking up "Swiss Army Knife" Isaiah Simmons or Can't Miss Javon Kinlaw would be considered a "bad draft move".  However if you consider Simmons a Safety (like I do) than they missed out on a need.  Having 4 Critical Needs and 3 remaining picks in the Top 160 (especially at the lower graded positions) won't help.  SF picked up Kinlaw and Aiyuk, satisfying their biggest and middle needed positions so they are already ahead of the game however, they lack the fire power to fill their needs with the best remaining rated players since they have only 1 Top 160 pick left with none on Day 2. Both these teams started out solid and so we can only hope their scouting department have already located  all the uncovered gems deep in the draft.

The Details 

Supply/Demand Table

Safe to say there should be a Day 2 run on Defensive Linemen (even Position Certainty), Running Backs (17% favorable) and WR (30% favorable).

Criticality Table by Draft Order

Criticality Table by Criticality Score

See you tomorrow for the Day 2 review/Day 3 forecast!

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The Fourth Annual All-Social Media Top 100 List for NFL Draft prospects is posted...check it out here!  https://boombearfootball.blogspot.com/2020/04/boombearjrs-fourth-annual-all-social_22.html